Stephen Moore, writing in the Wall Street Journal, discovers that people actually kind of hate Republicans and don’t buy their empty rhetoric about tax cuts.

A few weeks ago Republican leaders gathered on Capitol Hill to hear from their top pollsters and pundits about how they can win back the votes of independent voters. Some of the attendees are still in a state of cardiac arrest over what they learned.

America’s swing voters, especially the suburban “security moms,” who abandoned the GOP in droves in 2006 still hold Republicans in very low regard. What has party tacticians especially spooked is that these independents are apparently not much attracted to what the Republicans are saying about taxes. That’s a bitter pill for party leaders to swallow, because for 25 years the anti-tax banner has been a political trump card for conservative candidates. A top strategist at the Republican National Committee who attended the meeting told me: “Our tax message has worn thin.”

That people don’t take Republican messaging seriously anymore doesn’t mean that they are suddenly willing to pay more in taxes. What offends them is the suggestion that Bush’s tax cuts have helped the economy.

First, the not-so-good news for the GOP. Most voters are unpersuaded by the Republican message that the Bush tax cuts were a resounding success that pumped the economy back to life. Worse, the key independent voters are actually repelled by that message. “It crashes like the Hindenburg,” says Richard Thau, who has been monitoring swing voter sentiments across the nation. Why? Because politicians who boast about the rosy economy seem out of touch, even delusional, given the rising costs of gasoline, health insurance and college tuition.

The GOP will run on taxes…they always do. Their challenge is to do it without crashing like the Hindenburg. And that means they must confuse people.

One strong defense mechanism against the left’s class warfare tax policy is that roughly half of voters are convinced that when politicians say they are only going to soak the rich, they fear their own tax bills will go up.

Beside lying to the voters the GOP has another trump card…one they have been working on tirelessly.

There is another GOP imperative: The anti-tax message must be linked to wasteful government spending. “There’s no question that for seven out of 10 American voters, wasteful government spending is one of the largest problems in Washington,” says pollster Tony Fabrizio. “For many of these voters it’s a bigger issue than taxes.” All of the polling consistently finds that voters believe about 40 cents of every dollar spent by Washington is wasted. So this widespread aversion to the way government mishandles money may be the best shield against tax hikes–at all levels of government.

In Mr. Winston’s survey, 75% of respondents agreed that, “Taxes should not be increased as long as Congress continues to waste the tax money it already receives.” Only 23% did not.

This is the Katrina theory of government. Make sure to run up huge deficits paying for stuff people don’t need like war and bridges to nowhere. When people complain, point to the incompetence and waste in Washington and say that the government gets too much money from the taxpayers.

For the rest of their votes they’ll pretend to be a party of traditional values rather a party of pederasts, perverts, and crooks.

This time, I don’t think the electorate is going to buy it.