A far cry from the taunts of a “permanent republican majority” that we were hearing a few short years ago, there has been a major flurry of resignations and announcements of “early retirements” and “not seeking re-election” over the past year or so. And in pretty much every instance, it is from that “permanent republican” side of the aisle.
Do these Congressional republicans know something deeper about the impending implosion of their party? Are some involved in corruption, scandal or other embarrassing stories? Is it more like rats scurrying for the exits or cockroaches scurrying away when light is shed upon them?
Or is it something deeper – something that is more indicative of a longer term problem with the republican party? Obviously, the writing is on the wall with respect to the failed policies and rubber stamping of these failed policies – even the best republican spinmeisters can’t even deflect enough of the blame or divert enough attention. Whether it is the Justice Department politicization, Iraq, SCHIP, the economy, healthcare, the lack of any groundswell by the Presidential candidates, something else, or all of the above, even the republicans can smell something rotten in the state of their party.
Just off the top of my head, there is Kay Bailey Hutchison’s recent announcement to go along with Senators Hagel, Allard, Domenici and Warner (at least one, if not more of those seats is looking REAL good for the Democrats), just to note a few. And that doesn’t count the seats that the Democrats stand to gain via next year’s elections.
In the House, there is even more of an exodus. Hastert, Deborah Pryce and three others announced their retirement as of a few months ago. But since then, there have been a number of others who are not going to seek reelection. Even Chris Shays was “threatening” to retire.
Of course, there is also the Vitter/Craig (not to mention Foley from last year) cloud that hangs over the party when it comes to the rabid, foaming at the mouth fundie base that would likely be even more turned off and tuned out with Rudy or Mitt headlining the republican ticket. And who knows what else will come out over the next 8-12 months when it comes to corruption scandals, sex scandals (which interestingly have only seemed to hit the republican party after the cries of Clinton tainting the integrity of Washington DC) or just outright malaise and fatigue at the disgrace that the republican party has become.
Right after the 2006 election, Rove (of “THE math” fame) said that less than 100,000 votes on the House side and a few thousand on the Senate side would have kept control with the republican party. Yet, not even his own party seems to believe they have a chance at some control of government in the near future. That, and no doubt, they don’t want to deal with cleaning up the mess they made on Iraq, the economy, the environment and whatever else they did when they controlled all three branches of the Federal Government.
Interestingly as well, the ones who should step down or not seek reelection are the ones who are standing firm. Doolittle comes to mind, as does Larry Craig whose crime (to his party) is more of being a closeted gay while also being republican as opposed to being a creepy peeping tom. And there are more – many more like Heather Wilson, who is in some hot water herself, yet will roll the dice to run for NM-Sen (and leaving her House seat up for grabs).
You never really can know exactly how things will turn out in a year, but enough Congressional republicans are looking at the tea leaves and deciding that they have had enough. While bailing on the mess that they made is certainly a very cowardly thing to do, it at least gives some hope that there will be movement towards cleaning up that mess.
And who knows, maybe events will make it so that there will be a few surprise wins for the Democrats, getting closer to 60 seats in the Senate (not likely though) and another 15-20 in the House.
Even if we don’t see the writing on the wall just yet, it is clear that enough republicans are resigning themselves (pun intended) to the fact that they will be the minority party for the foreseeable future. And as I said above, like rats jumping ship, they are bailing before it all comes crashing down on them.
