Last week I took the temperature of people‘s opinions about the House resolution condemning the Genocide of Armenians in the early 20th Century. Most people thought it was ‘political grandstanding’ as opposed to payback for Armenian donations, a blunder that serves as an opening for Turkey to bring the Iraq War to Europe or a keen bit of brinkmanship that will limit the Bush administration’s options for continuing/expanding the war unilaterally.
As of today, it looks like it’s either brinkmanship or blunder as Turkey’s parliament has condoned the use of force against Iraq’s Kurds in Iraq.
While we are concerned with horseraces and who blows who in airports, and how we are going to throttle Iran, the War is expanding apace just where no one is looking. No one except the House of Representatives.
Long ago, I said that Bush has lit a fire that even he cannot put out. To continue the fire metaphor: Forest fires can burn underground for years, all it takes is a little digging and it’s ‘Flame On’! This resolution goes digging in the dirt at just the right time.
Not that correlation means causation in this instance, but the Resolution certainly provides some political cover for Turkey’s shift in policy.
My tinfoil hat’s receiver thinks that the Dems have provided cover for another goal – the continuation and expansion of chaos in the region.. and therefore the opportunity to expand American influence. Why would they do this? Because their role in this mess is to bring along all the dissenters just long enough until another ‘unavoidable’ event takes place and expands/continues the war. ‘Oh, I sympathize with you SO MUCH. Just another six months and we’ll get those mean guys to stop.’
I just don’t buy the idea that all these members of congress are nearly as uninformed on this subject as people in general assume them to be (probably because they are new to thinking about Turkey’s role in the region). While there are surely some who voted for all sorts of reasons, even the most whimsical of reasons, the timing of bringing this resolution to vote cannot be a coincidence.
So, it is basically up to the Turks to decide how the Resolution can be judged: If they go into Iraq, it’s a blunder (intentional or otherwise) that will bring the War to Europe. If they don’t it’s brinkmanship, but the conclusion of it is not certain. If Turkey curtails our ability to expand/continue the war, it’s successful brinkmanship. If not, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
