I hardly blog at all about the horserace and the primaries because the issue bores me for some reason and I can’t predict what will happen any better than they next guy or gal. Here’s a thread to talk about it. And here’s some fodder for discussion.
I find the Republican race harder to predict than the Democratic one. Here’s my analysis of the Democratic side.
If Hillary wins Iowa, she wins New Hampshire, and she coasts to the nomination.
If Obama wins Iowa, he’ll have a great shot at winning New Hampshire. Either way, if Obama wins Iowa his campaign will survive past New Hampshire and how that will shake out is beyond my ability to predict.
If Edwards doesn’t win Iowa he has to hope Obama does and that he comes in second. Otherwise, he’s done. And if Edwards wins Iowa, he needs to come in at least second in New Hampshire to have a shot.
The problem is that I have no idea who will win in Iowa.
The Republican race just baffles me. Guiliani is not seriously contending in Iowa and is way down in New Hampshire. He plans on winning anyway, even though we’ve never quite seen that happen before. I just can’t imagine any of these clowns actually winning the nomination. Maybe Romney will win it. I have a hard time finding a scenario for anyone else.
What do you think?
