With a January 3rd caucus, there isn’t much time to change the dynamics in Iowa before the Holidays make it next to impossible to campaign. So, let’s look at the lay of the land.
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 24%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Fred Thompson 9%
Ron Paul 7%
John McCain 7%
Tom Tancredo 6%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Huckabee is up 17% since the October poll. Fred Thompson has dropped into fourth place. And Ron Paul has reached parity with John McCain, who is focusing on New Hampshire.
Looking at the trend lines, we’re looking at a Huckabee win, with Romney in second place. But third place is up for grabs. The recent scandals are particularly troubling for Giuliani because they erode his primary area of support.
Giuliani, the poll’s third-place finisher, is seen as the most electable of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together.
Anything that erodes Giuliani’s perceived electability has the potential to catastrophically erode his numbers in Iowa, where people lack a natural affinity for his style of politics.
Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of the worst choices for the Republican nomination. Paul ranks second in that category, at 26 percent.
…Giuliani is seen by more likely caucus participants as the most ego-driven of the candidates.
If Giuliani’s support collapses in Iowa and McCain makes no serious attempt to pick up his voters, it could benefit Fred Thompson. But Thompson’s campaign has been in free-fall, as he is increasingly seen as a lackluster campaigner who is just mailing it in. Given Ron Paul’s money, his upward trajectory, and his anti-immigration message, he seems poised to gain ground on both Thompson and Giuliani. It’s also not unlikely that Tancredo voters will make Paul their second choice, enabling Paul to outperform his actual support.
As of this moment, the most likely scenario is a Huckabee/Romney/Paul finish, with Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain bunched in 4th to 6th place.
How will that set things up for New Hampshire? What will the media narrative be in that circumstance?
You tell me.
