It’s impossible to know whether this story has any legs, but John McCain has lawyered up. And a presidential candidate lawyering up on the eve of the first caucus is certainly a concern.
The Arizona Republican has hired a prominent Washington criminal attorney, Robert Bennett, to deal with the matter. “What is being done to John McCain is an outrage,” Bennett said in an interview.
Bennett said he sent prepared answers yesterday to written questions submitted by New York Times reporters who have spent weeks investigating questions about whether the senator did favors for a Washington lobbyist or her clients. She has also retained a lawyer, according to a knowledgeable source who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing legal matters.
There’s literally nothing more to the story at the moment. Make of it what you will. I just want to make a few observations.
If John McCain does not emerge as the Republican nominee, there’s a good likelihood that the GOP is going to be in for a long, strange ride. Let’s walk though this.
If Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa, I expect McCain to surge ahead of Romney in New Hampshire and win that state. This will set up a death match between McCain and Huckabee that will go down to the wire. Giuliani could conceivably get into the mix by winning Florida, but he seems too damaged by recent scandals to have much hope. Fred Thompson will go nowhere.
But if McCain has some bad news in the next three weeks that prevents him from capitalizing on a Huckabee win in Iowa, then Romney will likely prevail in the Granite State. We could easily see McCain, Thompson, and Duncan Hunter drop out after New Hampshire or South Carolina. We could see Giuliani drop out after Florida. And we’ll be left with Huckabee, Romney, and Ron Paul. And Ron Paul will have enough money to compete everywhere on Super Duper Tuesday, while Huckabee will not, and Romney will have to spend his own fortune.
Even in this scenario, I do not expect Ron Paul to win the nomination, or even any states (although he could win a couple). But he could easily rack up a fifth of the available delegates in a three-way race. Imagine the Republican convention if Ron Paul has the third biggest block of delegates.
Let’s go even further here. Assuming that Romney’s delegates are more Mormon than his overall universe of support and that Huckabee’s delegates are more Southern Baptist than his overall universe of support, and that Ron Paul’s delegates are…well…the most enthusiastic and dedicated of Ron Paul’s supporters…the Minneapolis conventions is going to be a assembly of the cultural fringe. It’s hard to picture your average Martha’s Vineyard Republican fitting in, exactly.
The Democratic competition is no less fluid, but all the candidates are at least culturally acceptable to the whole range of the Democratic electorate. Our convention will be one big inclusive feel-good party no matter who wins the nomination.
I guess my question is: what will it mean for the GOP over the short to medium term if their convention is completely dominated by Huckabee, Romney, and Paul supporters? Will there be fisticuffs between the Paul people and the Romney people on the platform committees? Will the McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson establishment delegates even show up? Or will they stay at home throwing up at the spectacle on their teevees?
And how bizarre could it get? Will mainstream America even recognize the bizarro world being conveyed to them from inside the Metrodome (or wherever they’re holding this thing)?
I don’t know the answers. But if McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani all get knocked out early, it’s going to be strange…and frightening…and it will change the world is some unpredictable way.
