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Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in Rawalpindi Thursday. National Review Online asked a group of experts on the region to gauge what her murder means for her country.
The most likely culprit in Bhutto’s death is al-Qaeda and aligned militant groups — the same groups who swore they would kill Bhutto when her return to Pakistan was announced, the same groups who tried to kill her in October. If al-Qaeda was indeed responsible, this is another stark reminder of the group’s regeneration in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership has returned to the levels of power they enjoyed in Afghanistan before U.S. forces toppled the Taliban, and Bhutto’s death has to be considered a major victory for them.
There is also evidence that Bhutto’s assassination, much like the October attempt on her life, may have been assisted by Islamic militants who have infiltrated Pakistan’s military and intelligence services.
Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has never risen to the occasion in the face of danger. He has attempted to broker compromises even following assassination attempts that targeted him. The Waziristan accords, consummated in 2006, were one sign of how Musharraf has attempted to negotiate away Pakistan’s problem with Islamic militancy: those accords essentially formalized al-Qaeda’s safe haven in the country’s Waziristan region.
Red agencies/ districts openly controlled by the Taliban; purple is defacto control; yellow is under threat. Click map to view. NWFP/FATA map.
In no way were those accords an isolated event: Pakistan’s further concessions in 2007 included the Bajaur, Swat, and Mohmand tribal agencies.
Jarrah answered himself, “The one who has experienced true love, the one who has lived in an alien atmosphere and place, and the one who has spent time in captivity.
“The mujahideen have experienced all three things in the past seven years. We have been reared on a true love for our global struggle, we were forcibly displaced from one place to another and we spent lots of time in the detention centers of Cuba [Guantanamo], in Pakistan, Bagram [Afghanistan] and Abu Ghraib [Iraq] and braved the brutalities of the CIA [US Central Intelligence Agency], the ISI [Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence] and Afghan intelligence,” Jarrah said.
“We actually see the world now. We are seasoned and therefore you will see actual fireworks against the one which claims to be the global superpower.”
“Mullah Omar, the Taliban shura [council], al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban have resolved this issue once and for all. Soon the mujahideen will announce the revival of a [region-wide] Islamic emirate, and after this – like all fighting groups gathered under a single command in Iraq – all commanders in Afghanistan will fall under the umbrella of the Islamic emirate.
“The Islamic emirate will govern [operations in] Afghanistan and Pakistan, and whether it is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar or any other, they will be under a single command and will not be able to defy the emirate because this is Islam,” Sadiq said.
The Americans know exactly how near we are to Islamabad and they are aware of defections in the Pakistani army, and they are also aware that only one or two defections at the level of colonel will mean that the mujahideen will get their hands on some batteries of missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.
PUNJAB, Pakistan (Weekly Standard) Dec. 10, 2007 – The suicide bombing at the Kamra Air Force Base in Punjab was not the first strike at a nuclear weapons storage facility. After a closer look at the bases struck inside Pakistan since August, at least two others occurred either on or near nuclear weapons storage facilities, based on open source information on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programs. Since August 2007, there have been two suicide attacks at or near the Sargodha Air Force Base , a nuclear weapons and missile storage facility in central Punjab province. Other attacks in Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province may be aimed at facilities providing regional security for Pakistan’s nuclear program.
Pakistani AFB's, including the nuclear sites of Kamra and Sargodha. Click to view.
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KARACHI (Asia Times) May 17, 2007 – There was no doubt in the Pakistani intelligence community when Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah was killed in Afghanistan last weekend by US-led forces that retaliatory action would be taken against anti-Taliban collaborators.
They did not have to wait long. A suicide bomber reportedly carrying a warning for “spies for America” blew up patrons of a hotel in the northern city of Peshawar, near the Afghan border, killing at least 25 people.
The choice of the Marhaba Hotel was significant. It was owned by an Uzbek named Sadaruddin, a close relative of anti-Taliban leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum.
The owner of the hotel and several of his sons died along with the mostly Afghan citizens in the attack. A message was found taped to the severed leg of the bomber that all spies for the US would meet the same fate as those killed.
Information obtained by Asia Times Online indicates that the suicide bomber was briefed and dispatched from a camp in Afghanistan by al-Qaeda’s best trainer, Abu Laith al-Libby. Libby is obsessed with rooting out US spies from within the ranks of Pakistan’s law-enforcement agencies.
Bring ’em on: Militants in Pakistan await US
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
Left blogs on fire, read Larry Johnson
According to Senator Obama’s spokesman, David Axelrod:
“Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq.”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."“The most likely culprit in Bhutto’s death is al-Qaeda and aligned militant groups — the same groups who swore they would kill Bhutto when her return to Pakistan was announced, the same groups who tried to kill her in October. If al-Qaeda was indeed responsible, this is another stark reminder of the group’s regeneration in Pakistan’s tribal areas.”
Bhutto may have misjudged:
just days before her assassination Wapo via UPI had this article. We’re wading in. Deeper in .
It’s always, always, under the cover. Bhutto demise affirms the decision:
AQ claims Bhutto killing.
“We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat mujahideen.” These were the words of al-Qaeda’s top commander for Afghanistan operations and spokesperson Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, immediately after the attack that claimed the life of Pakistani politician Benazir Bhutto on Thursday (December 27).
Bhutto’s killing, it would seem, is only the first major incident in al-Qaeda’s war against “American assets”, which is likely to plunge the country into further chaos and divert it from the democratic path.
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“If she had not come out of the vehicle, she would have been unhurt, as all the other occupants of the vehicle did not receive any injuries,” ministry spokesman Brigadier Javed Cheema said.
He said the post-mortem on the populist opposition leader, whose funeral earlier Friday was attended by hundreds of thousands of mourners, found her mortal wound came when she tried to duck after the bomber attacked.
The bomber also apparently fired three times at her but missed, Cheema said.
When she ducked, she hit the lever of the sunroof of the car that was to speed her away from a campaign rally as she was gearing up to contest parliamentary elections set for January 8.
“The lever struck near her right ear and fractured her skull,” Cheema said. “There was no bullet or metal shrapnel found in the injury.”
Cheema showed a brief video of the moments before the attack and the blast itself but it was unclear.
He said intelligence services had intercepted a call Friday from the man considered to be a top Al-Qaeda figure for Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud, congratulating a militant after Bhutto’s death. He said there was “irrefutable evidence that Al-Qaeda, its networks and cohorts are trying to destabilise Pakistan”.
“We have recorded his conversation in which he is congratulating a militant for the attack,” Cheema said, adding that Mehsud was also behind the suicide attack on Bhutto’s homecoming rally in October that killed 139 people.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
According to CNNi broadcast, a person is seen on video on the bumper of Bhutto’s vehicle with a handgun drawn, moments before the blast. The same person was supposed to have set off a suicide blast nearby riding a motorcycle.
A surgeon who treated her, Dr Mussadiq Khan, said earlier she may have died from a shrapnel wound while Ms Bhutto’s security adviser, Rehman Malik, said she had been shot in the neck and chest.
Farooq Naik, a senior official in Ms Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party, said the government’s explanation of her death was a “pack of lies”. “Two bullets hit her, one in the abdomen and one in the head,” he told AFP news agency.
After a previous attempt on her life in October that killed 130 people, Ms Bhutto accused rogue elements of the Pakistani intelligence services of involvement.
● Forensic evidence lost within hours of first assassination attempt
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."it’s the old “he said – she said” argument…no autopsy was performed…which poses a lot of questions, in and of itself. the most obvious one being why not? a prominent political personage had just been assassinated and the body is hurriedly interred without proper medical examination?…yeah…right.
these people may be bloody well clumsy in spinning this, but at the end of the day, dead men, or women in this case, tell no tales.
lTMF’sA
Find who ordered immediate internment for a start. I believe Islam demands burial by sundown on the day a person dies. Arafat had to be buried by the end of the day as I remember. But that should still give you sufficient time to find cause of death. Maybe there is some Islamic law against disturbing the corpse?
If Pakistan’s security apparatus was able to intercept Mehsud’s congratulations message then obviously this clown was being monitored. No help from from Musharraf equals him being complicit in this murder. Just as Bhutto said.
and the violence continues; in bhutto’s home town of karachi:
and retaliation attacks are increasing:
expect things to get worse, then the hammer will come down. as a.j. rossmiller put it yesterday:
lTMF’sA
pretty bad, observes Professor Juan Cole.
go read – With Bhutto gone, does Bush have a plan B?
Retired Brigadier Ejaz Shah, according to Raman, also played an active role in the campaign to discredit Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Caudhury after he started calling for the files of a large number of missing persons who were taken into custody by the police and the intelligence agencies.
[Emergency] The NAB Diaries – Part One and Part Two
By Amer Nazir – December 14, 2007 – For the non-Pakistanis, NAB is the acronym for The National Accountability Bureau. The flag ship of Musharraf. The main reason he gave for assuming power. He said that the nation had become too corrupt. NAB is composed of serving and retired army officers with unlimited powers. They are answerable to none. Present in every major city, each NAB office has a jail within its compound where prisoners are kept without any possibilities of bail. Some of them picked up from the streets, most from their beds at dawn. Several have died during interrogations …
Wednesday, 24 October 2007 KARACHI: Chairperson Pakistan Peoples Party Benazir Bhutto, in a letter addressed to the president, has written about attack on her life, sources said. In the letter she has pointed at the Chief Miniser of Punjab Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, DG IB Ejaz Shah, former director National Accountability Bureau (NAB) Waseem Afzal and former ISI chief Gen. (Rtd) Hameed Gul as conspirators. The PPP chairperson while expressing her reservations in the letter wrote that her life was in danger from Pervaiz Elahi, Brig. (Rtd) Ejaz Shah and Gen. Hameed Gul.
http://www.pakistanchronicle.com/content/view/4861/41/
Cooperative Research: Profile Benazir Bhutto
≈ Cross-posted from Nordic’s diary — Man supervising Benazir’s security was Osama’s handler ≈
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."That she may have been Pakistan’s symbol of hope of reform, but she was also a Trojan Horse, with the assignment–once in power–of inviting US troops into the country.
Now the US will have to do its invasion (already planned and scheduled) without an invitation.
Much more fun.
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In the late 1980s, Pakistani President Benazir Bhutto, feeling the mujaheddin network has grown too strong, tells President George H. W. Bush, “You are creating a Frankenstein.” However, the warning goes unheeded.
[Newsweek, 10/1/2001]
The other candidate …
In October 1990, Nawaz Sharif is running for election to replace Benazir Bhutto as the prime minister of Pakistan. According to a senior Pakistani intelligence source, bin Laden passes a considerable amount of money to Sharif and his party, since Sharif promises to introduce a hard-line Islamic government. Bin Laden has been supporting Sharif for several years.
Nawaz Sharif"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."But nonetheless I believe that any Pakistani who thinks it is better to have US troops roaming around their country rather than to negotiate with the Islamic factions is seriously deluded.
Certainly the recent history of Iraq can tell them what to expect.
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Under the dictatorship of General Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s the ISI really flowered as a kind of `state within a state’. It played a key role in manipulating the domestic political process to the disadvantage of Zia’s main political opponents: the Bhutto family and the Pakistani People’s Party. The ISI forged a close alliance with the US Central Intelligence Agency, whether in dealing with domestic leftists or – particularly – the Russians in Afghanistan. The main goal was to arm the Afghan resistance and bid up the cost of Russian intervention. It was an odd combination of Pakistani barracks nationalism, Islamic fundamentalism and US imperial might. Authoritarianism was the glue that held this disparate group together and the ISI was its main instrument. Although not without its tensions, this alliance held until the attacks of 11 September 2001, when it fell spectacularly apart.
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Afghan resistance
The 1983 suggestion of American Ambassador to Pakistan Ronald Spiers, that the U.S. provide Stingers to the mujahidin accordingly went nowhere for several years. Much of the resistance to the supply of Stinger missiles was generated internally from the CIA station chief’s desire (prior to the accession of Milt Bearden to the post) to keep the covert assistance program small and inconspicuous. Instead, the millions appropriated went to purchase Chinese, Warsaw Pact, and Israeli weaponry. Only in March 1985, did Reagan’s national security team formally decide to switch their strategy from mere harassment of Soviet forces in Afghanistan to driving the Red Army completely out of the country. After vigorous internal debate, Reagan’s military and national security advisors agreed to provide the mujahidin with the Stinger anti-aircraft missile.
Former ISI chief Hamid Gul
● Nuclear Spy AQ Khan – CIA/America Refused Arrest in 1975 & 1985 ◊ by Oui
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence.".
Conflicting reports about the death of political leader Benazir Bhutto have people wondering about the Pakistani equivalent of a second gunman on the grassy knoll.
The government version yesterday is stirring up accusations that the Pakistani government didn’t have enough security. The following have been offered as explanations of how she died.
Shot by gunman
It was initially reported a rooftop sniper fired bullets at her car before a second assailant blew himself up about 50 metres down the road, a theory given by senior Pakistan Peoples Party officials.
Photo published in Dutch newspaper NRC HandelsbladAuthorities said later Thursday that Bhutto died from bullet wounds fired by a young man in the crowd surrounding her vehicle, who then blew himself up.
[ VIDEO ]
Bhutto aide suggests cover-up
KARACHI (The Guardian) Oct. 23, 2007 – Former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has accused the Pakistani government of staging a cover-up after it refused her request for British and American experts to join the inquiry into last week’s suicide bombing, writes the Guardian. “It’s simply not right that attempts should be made to cover up an assassination attempt … Obviously some people are being protected,” she said.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."to death on the frame of the sunroof of her car.”
Don’t know if they are still trying to sell that one.
Hi Oui, as always thanks for all the wonderful links.