The Iowa caucuses are polling too close to call between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. However, there are some hints. The Southern Political Report tells us that ‘InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus. Here’s their most significant finding:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

I’m going on kind of gut feel for this right now, but those results seem right to me. Actually, I don’t see Edwards topping 40% and I don’t see Obama necessarily coming in third, but I do think it is close enough that second choices and strength in rural areas will be enough to push Edwards over the top. Whether Edwards scores a rather large 7% margin or a more narrow 1-3% margin will depend on how well he does among first choices.

And, of course, I could be completely wrong. There are polls out that show Clinton pulling away and Obama with a strong lead. Those numbers could hold up.

For the sake of a long primary season, I hope Edwards wins. I don’t want the nominee to lock things up on February 5th when 21 states have their primaries. I’d like to see the battle take in the opinions of as many voters in as many different states as possible. Hell, I’d love a brokered convention, if at all possible.

If we see an Edwards/Clinton/Obama finish, I wonder what effect it will have on Obama’s campaign. Regardless, the Clinton’s will try to spin defeat as victory. I don’t think Edwards has that option.

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