Chris Bowers has some statistics on the Iowa Caucuses.
Moderates: Democratic 88%–12% Republican
Independents: Democratic 75%–25% Republican
Suburban: Democratic 73%–27% Republican
Urban: Democratic 87%–13% Republican
Rural: Republican 53%–47% Democratic
Age 17-29: Democratic 80%–20% Republican
Age 30-44: Democratic 70%–30% Republican
Age 45-64: Democratic 62%–38% Republican
Age 65+: Democratic 61%–39% Republican
Men: Democratic 60%–40% Republican
Women: Democratic 72%–28% Republican
Consider, in addition, the total turnout at the respective caucuses: Democratic: 239,000 Republican 122,500.
If these numbers are even remotely indicative of what is going to happen in November, there are hardly any safe seats left in the country. Only the most rural of seats can be considered as beyond the reach of a reasonable and well financed Democrat. That’s the kind of upside potential Barack Obama might be able to provide. It’s also indicative of just how badly the Republican brand has fallen.
And then there are those numbers among the under 29 crowd: an 80%-20% advantage (52,580-12,650), and a turnout rate that ‘rose to 13% in 2008 compared to 4% in 2004 and 3% in 2000’.
Jill has an excellent critique of Obama, but I’d like to ask her: “If Obama brings coattails like this, why worry?”
After all, we’ll get much more progressive legislation (and stability) out of huge congressional majorities than we will out of whatever paltry advantages in style and proposed policies Edwards might have over Obama. Right?
