Clinton was polling twelve to twenty points behind in South Carolina before she decided to compare Barack Obama to Martin Luther King Jr. as a criticism. I personally think people are making too much of her remarks, which were so transparently self-defeating as to preclude intentional offense. I also think too much is being made of her emotional moment yesterday where she seemed to get a little self-pitying. But when you combine these late events with absolutely horrible press coverage, we’re getting close to Howard Dean’s ‘aaargh’ territory.
The significance of Dean’s scream was that it turned a stinging defeat into a campaign ending defeat. Hillary is teetering on a similar brink. As fladem has shown through his research, the historic bounce out of a New Hampshire win is huge but reversible.
On average, it found that when a front-runner loses New Hampshire, there is a 33-point swing in National Polling. Since that time I have done more detailed analysis that shows when you include GOP contests since 1980, the average is 34.
But the data also shows something else: This bounce is reversible. In at least three instances (1984, 1992 and 1996) the bounce from New Hampshire substantially receded about 3 weeks after New Hampshire.
In other words, Obama is poised to get a huge boost out of a win today, but he can’t rely on the boost to carry through all the way to February 5th and Super Duper Tuesday. He’ll need something to sustain it. If I were advising Clinton, I’d tell her to, above all, take her defeat with dignity. Here’s what I’d have her say:
“Sen. Obama has impressed me and impressed the nation with his ability to connect with voters. He’s earned my respect. Now the campaign is going to take a new turn and Barack will be exposed to the full glare of national scrutiny. That will tell us a lot about whether he has the right qualities to be our standard bearer against the Republicans. Now is the vetting season, and we will find out if Obama can weather the storm. Too many times we’ve seen the Democratic nominee, who looked good on paper, wither under the assault of the Republican attack machine.”
This provides a rationale for Clinton to stay in the race. While Clinton has a chance to win the Nevada caucuses on Jan 19th, it’s likely that Obama will roll up a huge win in South Carolina on the 26th. Her only hope is that Obama slips up somehow or something damaging comes to light.
Yet, her campaign’s huge gaffes in the last few days are threatening to foreclose any road forward at all. And that is what Edwards must rely upon. If he can sneak up and win another second place finish today, it might knock Clinton out of the race altogether. And, while the chances are slim, Edwards can go into February 5th in a position to capitalize on unforeseen events.
