Clinton was polling twelve to twenty points behind in South Carolina before she decided to compare Barack Obama to Martin Luther King Jr. as a criticism. I personally think people are making too much of her remarks, which were so transparently self-defeating as to preclude intentional offense. I also think too much is being made of her emotional moment yesterday where she seemed to get a little self-pitying. But when you combine these late events with absolutely horrible press coverage, we’re getting close to Howard Dean’s ‘aaargh’ territory.
The significance of Dean’s scream was that it turned a stinging defeat into a campaign ending defeat. Hillary is teetering on a similar brink. As fladem has shown through his research, the historic bounce out of a New Hampshire win is huge but reversible.
On average, it found that when a front-runner loses New Hampshire, there is a 33-point swing in National Polling. Since that time I have done more detailed analysis that shows when you include GOP contests since 1980, the average is 34.
But the data also shows something else: This bounce is reversible. In at least three instances (1984, 1992 and 1996) the bounce from New Hampshire substantially receded about 3 weeks after New Hampshire.
In other words, Obama is poised to get a huge boost out of a win today, but he can’t rely on the boost to carry through all the way to February 5th and Super Duper Tuesday. He’ll need something to sustain it. If I were advising Clinton, I’d tell her to, above all, take her defeat with dignity. Here’s what I’d have her say:
“Sen. Obama has impressed me and impressed the nation with his ability to connect with voters. He’s earned my respect. Now the campaign is going to take a new turn and Barack will be exposed to the full glare of national scrutiny. That will tell us a lot about whether he has the right qualities to be our standard bearer against the Republicans. Now is the vetting season, and we will find out if Obama can weather the storm. Too many times we’ve seen the Democratic nominee, who looked good on paper, wither under the assault of the Republican attack machine.”
This provides a rationale for Clinton to stay in the race. While Clinton has a chance to win the Nevada caucuses on Jan 19th, it’s likely that Obama will roll up a huge win in South Carolina on the 26th. Her only hope is that Obama slips up somehow or something damaging comes to light.
Yet, her campaign’s huge gaffes in the last few days are threatening to foreclose any road forward at all. And that is what Edwards must rely upon. If he can sneak up and win another second place finish today, it might knock Clinton out of the race altogether. And, while the chances are slim, Edwards can go into February 5th in a position to capitalize on unforeseen events.
One thing about the people who lost in early primaries and then came back to win the nomination, of which Bill Clinton is a prime example: Generally they were not as well known as Hillary, and did not come with the high expectations of victory.
When Bill Clinton appeared in early debates, I remember thinking he was the best of the lot and would probably win. But that was not a widely held opinion at the time. He rose to the top after people started paying attention to him. But Hillary is in a very different situation. She was expected to win easily but now appears to be losing. That’s much harder to overcome. People like a winner, which is why she polled high early on. But now that she is not seen as the inevitable winner, the tide is turning. It will be very difficult for her to roll that tide back.
I agree. Clinton is finished. But she can flame out in humiliation or she can go down with dignity. She’s getting close to the former.
You don’t get it – it’s not a question of Hillary intending offense. When Trent Lott said, “I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We’re proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn’t have had all these problems over all these years, either.” the problem wasn’t that he intended offense, the problem was that his words revealed that he himself was offensive. Much like with Trent Lott, Hillary’s words reveal her true thoughts and feelings, and my response to this revelation is quite simple – to hell with her.
Yeah, it was somewhat revealing…I guess. But it strikes me as just desperation. Didn’t she mean to say that Barack is no MLK rather than insist that he is MLK and that ain’t good enough?
Methinks she was just in ‘say-anything’ mode. She’s trying to fight back against this sudden media narrative that Barack is Selma and Camelot all wrapped up in one. She just blew it.
But, I’m probably less sensitive, or attuned, to these kinds of gaffes.
I just took a ride to the Underground Railroad. Very nice.
Are you a part of the 6 in the City?
Yes, I’m #5 (right-to-left).
Congratulations! I know you’re very proud…and excited!!
As for me–my 100th birthday is next week!
:<)
Happy Birthday! I’m a sucker for pretty girls who wear 20 pearls…
We have a close working relationship with the Eta Omega chapter here in Louisville and we’ll be celebrating with them next week. Look me up if you’re ever in the area – especially if you’re here for Derby.
I know that’s right. 🙂
My chapter is XO. You know we’ll all be quite busy…starting this week, actually. It’s such an exciting time! It may be tough to get here this weekend (there are a quite a few celebrations), but just wait until July!
You know, I’ve only traveled through Kentucky, but I’ve never spent time there. That’s gonna have to change. One of my “travel” dreams is to take a train across the country. Ours is a beautiful one…if we don’t screw it up!
Happy Birthday! and wishes for many more!
lTMF’sA
She may be able to stay in for a while. As long as she has money she may even make it to Feb 5th. But she needs to change her pitch in some major way. She’s “working too hard” and looks desperate.
Have you watched an Obama rally? It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen. His message about “us” solving the problems together is far superior to anyone else’s “I” will fix all your problems routine. Edwards also has a good pitch, but a distant second. Hillary’s are so bad that she’s hard to watch. If she really wanted to stop the hemorrhaging, she would stop making appearances altogether and just ride on her name recognition alone. I really think she’s doing damage to herself by talking at all. And she needs to pray that Obama stumbles.
Yesterday I saw a new Survey USA poll for S. Carolina and to see all the demographic groups that have peeled away to Obama from Clinton… she can’t undo that trend. I think she’s still ahead in Nevada but I think the NV polls are old and stale.
Booman,
I want to thank you. Your blog has been the ONLY one I have been reading, that has really been true to the basic reason why blogs are so important to the progressive movement.
While other “major” blogs, bloggers and commenters have been running around trying to be as influential as the MSM by becoming what they despise about them, this blog has done the contrary. While other blogs have been blasting Obama for;
Being the hinderance of the Edwards support
Being the media darling
and so on
You have posted incredibly thought provoking posts about the possibilities of “WHY” Obama may be running the way he is…HELLO!
The hatred of the media by the blogs is not only justified, I agree with it. But they are NOW helping them with what will be the rehabilitation of Hillary Clinton in the MSM , justified the simple fact, that the MSM hasn’t been fair, so we need to help her. All the while they have to know that A Clinton presidency will certainly put the progressive movement back to the 90’s…..
The great things about blogs has been the challenge they posed to the “establishment” even when we lost the arguments.
While I detest “tweety” he is hooked into what is going on in the DC establishment.
This morning he said that the Democratic Party establishment are all hunkered down now to stop Obama, but what they are really trying to do is stop the so called insurgency, even IF you are not an Obama supporter, the progressive blogosphere are ALSO the insurgents to the Democratic establishment.
If the blogs don’t wake up and stop buying into this new Clintonian spin, bullcrap, it will be to all of our peril. All the work that has been accomplished will be halted if we don’t realize what is actually going on here.
The amount of below the surface racism spewed by the
Clinton campaign has been obviously endorsed by the Dem establishment, because they do have the power to stop it, and they haven’t. I have also seen this in some commenters in the major blogs, mostly Clinton partisans, so it is obvious that they approve of that kind of hideous rhetoric. As a gay white male, I am very aware of this kind of subtle racism to people of color, I refuse to stand by and let it happen without calling anyone on it.
Sorry for the ramblings, but I just wanted to say Thank you!
you’re welcome. Thank you. I am somewhat dismayed by the tremendously poor quality of many of my colleagues work lately.
Like a lot of other people I “found” DK after the catastrophe in 2004, just when a lot of people were tuning in. From there I followed a link here, and from here to Eurotrib. And for a long time I read those three blogs in that order. Then I started going to ET first, then here, then DK, because I wanted the international perspective.
As the candidate wars have heated up the frenzy at DK has become almost unbearable. I’ve started coming here first for a sane domestic perspective, then ET, then I wade through as much of DK as I can stand.
Thank you, BooMan. And thanks to all the regulars in the pond that keep us all sane. Or at least try to.
Good advice.
She’s had a rough few days. And, as you say, her staff hasn’t helped her.
I don’t support Hillary and I don’t want her to win. But I recognize that the media hates Hillary and is always looking for the opportunity to go in for the kill. She was off her game the last few days and gave them that opportunity. It’s sad that being off your game for a woman means raising your voice a bit emphatically in a debate and showing some emotion at a meeting with citizens. It isn’t fair, but life in politics isn’t fair. I hope some day a woman can run for office and we will have a press that covers her more fairly. But until then we are stuck with what we have. I think your advice is good and I hope she takes it.
Making too much of her comments? I think not. She has just shown me exactly who she is. And it is breathtaking.
First, she shows a contempt for activists and organizers. She is disgustingly cynical–there’s seeing things for what they are, but damn.
But most of all, she is patronizing as hell. I would understand if she was comparing the actions of JFK and LBJ. That is more than a fair comparison. But to stand there and say that it took a president to get Dr. King’s “dream” accomplished sounds like You know, it really does take a white person to get it done.
Sorry, but that is just how it is perceived. No one would feel that way if it hadn’t been experienced before.
I’m going to try to be careful here, because I don’t want to generalize, but here’s my take. There is a wariness among SOME (not all) African-Americans when dealing with SOME (not all) white liberals and progressives. There is a very real sense that SOME (not all) are very willing to act when it’s clear the object of that action is subordinate–acting on behalf of children or teens for example. And that person is sincere about what they are doing. But that attitude changes when an African-American is not subordinate to them (by age, economically, by mgmt rung, etc.). That’s when those patronizing “slips of the tongue” come to the fore.
Kinda like Joe Biden and the “fresh and clean” thing. I know Biden’s record. I know he’s not a knuckle-dragger. But when faced with the prospect of dealing with an African-American on the same level–a senator running for president–it was if he couldn’t quite wrap his head around it. Thus his “gaffe.”
And I’m not so sure his whine-fest as he ended his race (about how much more “experience” he had and why he wasn’t covered more…tell that to Kucinich) was just merely jealousy or, on some level, a resentment of both Clinton and Obama.
‘Cuz you know, he has “experience.” He is more “qualified.”
Sorry, that’s what my ears hear.
Damn, I wish I had more time to get into this! But Clinton’s words–especially for someone with a reputation for being so carefully focused and on-message–are quite revealing. And I don’t like what I see.
Wasn’t Bill Clinton said to be the first Black president? 😉
Good post
Oh yes. Christ Jesus, I am so sick of that!
And thank you very much.