Taking a look at yesterday’s results, the Democrats enjoyed a 31% jump in turnout over 2004.
Total primary voters= 524,055
Democratic 286,408 (54.6%)
Republican 237,647 (45.2%)
Here’s the 2004 turnout:
Total Democratic primary voters= 217,965
Kerry 84,229 39%
Dean 57,788 26%
Clark 27,254 13%
Edwards 26,416 12%
Lieberman 18,829 9%
Kucinich 3,104 1%
Sharpton 345 0%
When considering these numbers, remember that in 2004 the Republican side was uncontested. Therefore, we should have expected to see a dropoff this year, because of people deciding to vote in the Republican primary. That obviously didn’t happen.
Obama’s 104,399 votes represent a 24% jump over Kerry’s winning total from 2004. The best news is the 55%-45% Democratic advantage in overall turnout. Compare that to the 2004 general election results.
Total voters= 676,227
Kerry 340,511 50%
Bush 331,237 49%
Nader 4,479 1%
This confirms that New Hampshire is now a solidly (if not quite safely) Democratic state. I haven’t had time to delve too deeply into the exit polls or compare them too much to the 2004 exit polls. A cursory look reveals that woman turned out at a 57% clip (54% in 2004) and voted for Clinton over Obama (46%-29%). I guess they might not want to iron anyone’s shirts. CNN broke out the youth vote differently than was done in Iowa or in 2004, creating two groups (18-24 and 25-29) instead of one (18-29). This makes it hard to compare the two results. Obama got 60% of the 18-24 range, but lost the 25-29 range. He then won the 30-39 range, and lost all the older groupings.
Combined, the two youth groups accounted for 18% of the vote (14% in 2004), compared to 13% for the over 65 group (11% in 2004).
The biggest difference between this year and 2004 is that Democrats turned out in much bigger percentages this time around. In 2004, the electorate was split 44%-44% between Democrats and Independents. This time Democrats outweighed Republicans 54%-44%. That’s probably a feature of the lack of a Republican race in 2004.
Clinton won because of higher female turnout and higher registered Democrat turnout. Independents voted for Obama at a 41%-31% clip. Looking forward to the general election, it does look like Obama has more cross-over appeal, and thus a higher upside.
The key question? What explains this unprecedented turnout?
