If you are an Edwards supporter you might like Mike Lux’s observation:
Edwards could become the kingmaker. Edwards is dead as a Presidential prospect for 2008, but if this becomes a long, drawn out, fairly evenly-divided fight, and Edwards stays in and keeps drawing around 20% everywhere he goes, he could be the guy who decides the nominee. I could easily see this playing out where Obama wins a bunch of states and Clinton wins a bunch, and they both end up with about 40% of the delegates, and Edwards keeps playing to the end of the primary process and then delivers his 20% to one of them. Could make things interesting right up to convention day.
I’ve said all along that Edwards’ only chance (if he lost Iowa and, most likely, even if he didn’t) is to win at a brokered convention. I’m not an expert on how that would work, but in Lux’s scenario, it could wind up with Edwards actually winning. Perhaps this is why Edwards has promised to soldier on all the way to the convention.
If no one has a majority of the delegates then they’ll have to go to a second ballot, where everyone’s delegates are no longer bound to any particular candidate. In Lux’s scenario, Obama and Clinton would be competing to get enough Edwards (and Richardson) delegates to put them over the top. They might be forced to offer him the vice-presidency, or whatever he wants. But it can work the other way. If he can convince Obama that he is willing to throw his delegates to Clinton, but will accept Obama for the vice-presidency, then Obama might take what he can get. It would be all about gamesmanship.
Of course, to really predict this kind of scenario, I’d need to know exactly how it would go down according to the rules. We haven’t seen a brokered convention since 1968, and the rules have changed since then.
My gut tells me that 20% would not be enough for Edwards to prevail. But 30% could be sufficient if he is smart enough.
