The exit polls are available:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val=NHDEM
And they reveal a REALLY AMAZING THING:
Of the 1955 respondents, 57 % were female.
57 %.
that is simply an astonishingly HUGE HUGE difference from 50 %.
I for one do not believe for even one second that 57 % of NH residents are female. It might be that 52 % of Dems are females. But 57 %????
The polls do not show the actual pct going for BO, HC, whatever, but multiplication reveals:
BO: .57 F * .34 BOV + .43 M * .40 BOV = .3658 BOV
HC: .57 F * .46 HCV + .43 M * .29 HCV = .3869 HCV
These percentages are not far off the actual results. Conclusion: Female turnout was way over 50 %.
So, what we have is 2 facts:
- HC was supported by a large proportion of women, when looking at the BO v HC contest
- The female turnout in the race was WAAAA – AAA – AAAAYYYY above what any reasonable person would ever expect.
Finally, one parenthetical note: Anyone who follows elections knows that ballot position can lead to small but important gains. If you are high, you get 3 %. HC was above BO.