We should be wary about putting too much stock in the New Hampshire exit polls, but the Edwards campaign needs to take a careful look at them. They tell a disturbing story, and indicate that Edwards’ voters are not the people you might think they are.
Much of the blogosphere is obsessed with ‘partisanship’ and thinks Edwards has it and Obama does not have it. Don’t tell it to the people of New Hampshire.
Opinion of Bush Administration
Overall
Positive: 6%
Negative: 92%Among those with a positive opinion of Bush (plus/minus baseline result in parentheses):
Clinton: 41% (+2)
Edwards: 23% (+6)
Obama: 29% (-7)Among those with a negative opinion of Bush:
Clinton: 39% (0)
Edwards: 17% (0)
Obama: 36% (0)
Anyone that has a positive opinion of Bush that is voting in the Democratic primary must be considered a moderate Democrat of the ‘swing’ variety. They’re not likely to be attracted to Edwards’ hyperpartisan rhetoric, his Bush-bashing, or his economic anti-corporate populism. They probably are voting for Edwards because he’s a white guy and his opponents are not. But let’s test Edwards economic message. You’d expect it to resonate best with the people at the bottom of the economic ladder, who do not own 401(k)’s. You’d also expect the free-trading Clintons to do poorly in this group.
Vote By Income
Less than $50,000/year:
Clinton: 47% (+8)
Edwards: 16% (-1)
Obama: 32% (-4)More than $50,000/year:
Clinton: 35% (-4)
Edwards: 17% (0)
Obama: 40% (+4)
If you dig into these numbers it gets worse:
Under $15,000/year:
Clinton: 49% (+10)
Edwards: 13% (-4)
Obama: 37% (+1)$15,000-$30,000/year:
Clinton: 50% (+11)
Edwards: 15% (-2)
Obama: 29% (-7)$30,000-$50,000 year:
Clinton: 44% (+5)
Edwards: 17% (0)
Obama: 32% (-4)
So Edwards does better among people that don’t hate Bush and worse among the truly poor. How is he doing among people that want an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq?
Clinton: 41% (+2)
Edwards: 15% (-2)
Obama: 34% (-2)
And among people that want to ‘keep troops in Iraq’?
Clinton: 24% (-15)
Edwards: 21% (+4)
Obama: 51% (+15)
These are three pillars of Edward’s campaign: he’s a partisan fighter, he’s going to stick up for the little guy, and he’s the most aggressive about ending the war. And he’s doing terribly among each constituency for these positions. My only explanation for this is that voters are not responding to his message, but to his gender and race.
