Via Bowers the Poblano Institute did a town by town analysis of how New Hampshire voters transferred their support between 2004 and 2008. Their conclusion is that Kerry voters went for Clinton and Dean supporters went for Obama. This isn’t very surprising, as Clinton, like Kerry, was the choice of Establishment Democrats, and they were both the ‘moderate’ choice. Bowers concludes:
If Clinton’s campaign really is the Kerry and Lieberman coalitions reborn, while Obama and Edwards are splitting the remainder, then Clinton probably wins out. Older women are the largest identity group in the Democratic primary electorate. It will take both a nearly unified, and greatly expanded, progressive creative class plus African-American coalition to have any chance against her.
That’s probably correct, but it might mean that Kerry’s endorsement of Obama (along with his huge mailing list) is more important than the average endorsement.
