The lastest poll numbers out of Michigan show that the race is too close to call, but also that the late movement is all toward Romney. Michigan does not have party registration, which means that Democrats and Independents do not have to jump through any hoops to vote in the Republican primary. Markos Moulitsas has recommended that Michigan Democrats show up to vote for Mitt Romney on the theory that a Romney win will deny McCain a clear path to the nomination. (As an aside, a specious complaint has been filed against Moulitsas with the Michigan Attorney General). General election polling shows that McCain is the Republicans’ strongest potential candidate, while Romney and Huckabee are extremely weak. McCain’s strong victory in New Hampshire has catapulted him into the lead in South Carolina, so we can’t expect Huckabee to undo McCain’s momentum if McCain wins tonight’s primary.
Turnout is expected to be light and an early morning snow won’t help matters. The Democratic primary has been rendered virtually meaningless because all the candidates, save Clinton and Dodd, took their names off the ballot and the DNC has promised not to seat the delegates. The DNC will, of course, seat the delegates unless they are decisive to the outcome of the nomination. If they are decisive, look to the Clintons to try to have those delegates seated, and look to Obama and Edwards to try to deny that effort. For this reason, it is in the interests of the non-Clinton supporting Democrats to show up and vote for ‘uncommitted’ which is an option on the ballot. An uncommitted delegate could still choose to go to Clinton, but they won’t be pledged to her. Some have suggested voting for Dodd instead, but Dodd will not likely reach 15%, or, at least, he seems less likely to reach 15% than ‘uncommitted’. Therefore, it is a better bet to vote ‘uncommitted’ if you want to deny the Clintons an unfair advantage that they have no right to enjoy just because they refused to follow along and take her name off the ballot.
Or just go vote for Romney. Someone want to sue me for saying that? I could use the publicity.
A Romney victory will stem McCain’s momentum and muck up the works in the GOP contest, but it will also be just what the doctor ordered for Rudy Giuliani, whose whole strategy depends on the race getting to Florida with no clear frontrunner.
Whatever you do, have fun.
I dare not speak against the Markos strategy for fear of getting trollrated again. Yes, vote uncommitted.
More likely, banned.
Moulitsas’ forays into political elections, after the Lamont fiasco, deserve no consideration whatsoever. All that we learned from him is that the left wing blogosphere is a great place to make money, but not particularly influential with with mainstream Democrats.
Snow is Michigan actually light. The problem is that those mainstream Democrats were not apprised of the “uncommitted” option for Edwards or Obama, or they just did not think the trip worthwhile.
One vote, mine, for “uncommitted” yet if it reaches doubled digits, it will be surprising.
Michigan is a no-show for the Democrats, I predict.
Thanks, but I was trollrated here, at BMT. Over there I wouldn’t be surprised.
here.
I sure hope the media explains what a “Clinton” victory in Michigan means, because the uninitiated who don’t follow these things will see only the headlin “Clinton wins Michigan” and not know that it’s essentially meaningless.
There are a lot more of the uninitiated than the educated, sadly.
That’s it, Booman, I’m sick of your enlightening and well-written commentary. I’m suing your ass!!
Happy now?
This is sorta like the US vs Russian space program where we spent zillions developing the Fisher Space pen to write w/o gravity…vs the Russians just sharpened some pencil leads in space and wrote notes quite easily, thank you.
So, is this little GOP attacker angry because his guys MUST pay operatives to run under the cover of dark to come up with all their handy tricks, then pay good money after bad to defend them vs Markos saw a legal opportunity and put it out there?
Must say, I’m hoping Michigan goes down to the wire and let them all jump on a plane to confront Rudy in Florida.
Looks like very low turnout.
Don’t we have a reporter on the ground? Where is ej? This is his moment.
I don’t know who the frogpond has but I’m friends in other places with Libby Spencer and Bonnie Bucqueroux, both of whom blog for the Detroit News, and both of whom are reliable voices.
Thanks for the link, nice to have a blogger on the ground keeping track
why in the world does someone with kos’ record of prediction think he can make a series of prediction and then come up with some clever plan based on them all being correct…
You don’t prop up opponents. I don’t find McCain more credible that Romney as potential president… oh yeah, polls and stuff, the sort that made kos sure that it was Dean or Clark FOR SURE for the Dem nom last time… What if Romney pulls through, what if it really is MI that kept him alive.
Democrats like kos… think the more time you have to talk and debate and run the worse you look (!!!!). Think of that. The longer you have to make your case, the worse it is for you.
To stand quietly and wait for people to hate the other people so much that they vote for that guy hiding in the shadows… that’s Democratic Politics.
it is to laugh.
kos has always had a million reasons to vote for or like Republicans, seems to me.