You can keep track of the delegate counts here. Keep in mind that the superdelegates on the Democratic side are not pledged to any particular candidate and are, in effect, free agents that can change their mind at any time. One thing you’ll notice is that despite all the hoopla over Obama’s win in Iowa and Clinton’s win in New Hampshire, the contests didn’t mean anything in the delegate count. In Iowa the delegates were allocated: Obama (16), Clinton (15), and Edwards (14), even though Edwards technically came in second place. And in New Hampshire, the split was: Clinton (9), Obama (9), and Edwards (4), even though Clinton technically won the state.
Here are the keys things to look for as we look ahead. The nomination can only be secured by winning a majority (not a plurality) of the delegates. It’s not even enough to have a 2-1 advantage over your nearest competitor if you don’t also have an absolute majority (this could become important on the Republican side). Ruth Marcus makes some important observations:
In addition, the biggest factor pointing to an extended, delegate-by-delegate slog is one that didn’t exist in 1984: the relentless arithmetic of the [Democratic] party’s proportional representation rules, in which candidates receive delegates according to their share of the vote in each congressional district and, for a smaller number, statewide. Although that provision was adopted in 1988, it has never become relevant, because a clear front-runner has emerged in every contest since.
However, in a close race, the rules make it difficult for a single candidate to pile up a big enough margin to amass the necessary number of delegates. Given the contours of this contest, that may well not happen in the supposed tsunami of voting on Feb. 5, at which point Democrats will have picked 1,818 delegates, 45 percent of the total.
As you can see from the delegate apportionment from Iowa and New Hampshire, a close three-way race will not supply a majority to any particular candidate. And here is the real meat of the matter:
Then there are the graduate seminar-level questions that could arise if the contest becomes really close or even heads into the convention unsettled. One is the Edwards Factor. Former North Carolina senator John Edwards’s path to the nomination seems blocked, but that does not necessarily render him irrelevant. Edwards can keep collecting delegates so long as he receives 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district or statewide.
If so, he could have sway over a potentially decisive share of delegates whom he could urge to back a particular candidate, and his inclination in Obama’s direction seems clear. Edwards’s delegates would not be obligated to follow his direction, but his view would be influential.
That 15% mark is very important. If Edwards cannot sustain that level of support, then one of the other two candidates will likely begin to accumulate a clear majority of the delegates. And there is reason for concern if you are an Edwards supporter, or if you are an Obama supporter that hopes to win a brokered convention with the support of Edwards’ delegates. The most alarming indicator is an erosion of Edwards’ national poll level. He’s now polling around 12%, which simply won’t get it done on Tsunami Tuesday.
Edwards really needs a first or second place finish in Nevada to bolster his national poll levels and help him win delegates on February 5th. If Edwards wins delegates consistently in most of the Feb. 5th states, no one will get a majority of the delegates and the race will march on.
Clinton is unlikely, in my opinion, to prevail in a brokered convention. If Edwards wants the vice-presidency and to stop Clinton, all he needs to do is stay in the race and keep getting 15% in the primaries and caucuses.
On the Republican side, they still have some winner-take-all primaries (although I haven’t seen a state-by-state list), so even a crowded field might get resolved before their convention. But the GOP’s problem is that they have no front-runner at all. And, aside for Romney, they have little money to continue the campaign. If McCain doesn’t win South Carolina, there’s no telling when the thing might get settled.
It’s not out of the question that we might see two brokered conventions. One thing I’ll say…in such a case the Democratic convention would be much less contentious. Most likely, Obama would win, Edwards would take the veepee slot, and people would try to heal the wounds. On the Republican side, there would be deep ideological differences at play and it could begin to resemble the 1968 Democratic convention (without the outside rioting and police brutality).
