It seems like every analysis piece on the state of the Republican race is the same. And that makes them boring to read. Here’s the narrative:
The mornings of conservative panic came after Mike Huckabee won Iowa and John McCain won New Hampshire. Each candidate enrages elements of the Right, especially (but not exclusively) those focused on economic issues. Earlier this week, Rush Limbaugh sounded as if he needed someone to talk him off a ledge about the two men’s ascent. “If either of these two guys get the nomination,” Limbaugh declared, “it’s going to destroy the Republican Party.”
Conservative leaders exhaled Wednesday after Mitt Romney (who earlier captured the Wyoming caucus) slowed Huckabee and McCain by defeating them in Michigan. But the Right’s respite is likely to be brief. That’s not only because McCain or Huckabee could revive by winning in South Carolina on January 19.
The larger problem is that no Republican candidate has energized the social, economic, and foreign-policy components of the modern conservative coalition. That means that whoever wins this competition could inherit a fractured party in which at least one significant bloc of voters will be unenthusiastic, at best, about the outcome. “That’s one of the biggest dangers right now for the Republican nominee,” says Wehner, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center.
Here’s what I don’t understand. Romney and Huckabee have virtually no chance to win the presidency. A look at the head-to-head polls shows Romney getting beat by Edwards 52%-36%, by Obama 55%-33%, and by Clinton 51%-39%. The numbers for Huckabee: Edwards 48%-36%, Obama 52%-39%, and Clinton 49%-43%.
If Romney and Huckabee can’t crack 40% in a two-way election they could spell doom for Republicans down ticket. John McCain’s numbers are much better.
McCain 49% Clinton 45%
McCain 46% Obama 45%
McCain 44% Edwards 42%
So why is Rush Limbaugh apoplectic at the prospect of a McCain nomination? Seems to me like he is the only chance the Republicans have to avoid a complete trouncing all up and down the ticket on election day.
Do they seriously want Mitt Romney? Why?
Limpnaugh is still likely upset about McCain’s policy regarding the so called illegal immigrants.
do you really think so?
Falling under the overriding rightwing mantra of security, it’s the gift that keeps on giving with his listeners.
everything changes should that other Mayor enter the race. Mayor Bloomberg; will he, won’t he?
If the guy isn’t serious about a run why is he meeting with Ballot Access Ecpert
Bloomberg Meets With Ballot Access Expert
hmmm! Given the current state of campaigns, the odds are up that’ll he’ll enter the race.
yup. plus the whole ‘campaign finance reform’ bit with Feingold.
At the risk of sounding like an apologist, maybe they are going on princple?
given how many different positions romney has taken on issues near and dear to the conservative base, it’s hard to imagine that they’re supporting him because of principle
Romney is at least mouthing the right words. McCain won’t do that, so he simply is “not one of them.” They aren’t going to settle for a likely winner if it means that the winner will “Not be one of them.”
It’s identity politics. “One of us or no one.” As the obstructionist Republicans in the Senate are demonstrating, they’ll literally burn America to the ground before they will accept a President who isn’t one of them.
I can imagine the wailing, rending of clothes and gnashing of teeth if they have to face a Democratic ticket with both Hillary and Obama on it. [I know – not likely.]
Who didn’t know that McCain all along was the Democrat’s nemesis? And that he was the only Republican who has any chance, a good chance at that, of taking the presidency? With Bill on the campaign trail, there’s no chance that Democrats will not self-destruct, and he will take Obama and Hillary down with him.
It is 2000 all over again. And McCain will win.
because conservatives are stuck in their with-us-or-against-us rhetorical trap. mccain challenged people like limbaugh on immigration, campaign finance and torture. that makes him a traitor. never mind that they agree on 95% of the issues out there or that he has the best chance of actually getting elected, once you get the mark of traitor, they can’t forgive him.
oddly romney escapes it even though not all that long ago he took even more contrary positions than mccain. romney got a pass because he was in mass and the powers that be decided that a moderate republican was better than no republican governor. plus they realized that their brand of republican would never make it in mass.
so at the same time they demonized mccain, they made peace with romney’s moderation–even when the moderation happens to be on the same issues as mccain. with romney it didn’t feel like a stab in the back, so they’re not treating him like a back-stabber.
I don’t know what problem they have with McCain. He’s got the best resume for the job. But of course that isn’t what matters to the money republicans who actually run things. The image is more important. The oratory skills, the nice haircut, empty suit, etc are what matter, it seems. Plus he’d have to be comfortable in the marionette strings all day. Mitt is perfect.
I don’t understand the mind of the religious sheep who are their largest bloc of voters though. They are a mystery to me. Doesn’t look like they’ll have any fags to bash at the polls this time so I wonder if they’ll even show up for anything less than an Ayatollah and McCain’s a phony Christian.
The more moderate, reasonable republicans (most of which call themselves independents now) are the ones I do understand alot better and many of them sort of want their party to lose now. But these are the people who would support McCain.
I’m not so sure thinking is what they’re doing right now. Clearly, there is no Herculean Rep candidate that can muck out Bush’s stalls for them and thus regain any credibility for the party. It is truly historical to step back and view all that the Rep Party has invested in their ownership of American Politics these past 20 years and see how every decision, every turn, has exposed their policies as deeply flawed.
They have no sway over any of their wings, much less their core so I’m inclined to think they’re going to let the chips fall where they may and spend what’s left of their war chest trying to murder the effectiveness of the Dem who will (hopefully) be the next Pres. Let’s not forget, there’s alot of $ yet to be spent on all the layers of the candidates that are running, not just presidents. God knows StevenD may have decided to give up treehugging for Lent but we’ll never see the day when the Rep give up hugging their money for Lent.
At the risk of sounding trite, I’d say follow the money. Do you think Limbaugh would back a candidate for President in a contested field for anything less?
See as how Rush & Cheney have been such pals and when you look at the advisors on Mitt’s box car there does seem to be a bit of a duplication, I’d say you have a point.
The money boys are more concerned with keeping the party both together and under their control than they are with winning. If Edwards looked viable, it might be different. But Obama and Clinton both are acceptable to big money, and there are advantages to having a Dem in the hot seat when it hits the fan. The fact that much of the base is invested in hating McCain means they’re worried about a break off if he gets it. Actually, the one who really scares them is Huckabee. I’m seeing a brokered convention, and I think the establishment’s first choice will be McCain because he could win and he’s not really a threat to big money. But the base, including the talk radio bloviators, looks like they won’t stand for it, so they’ll settle for Romney, who’s more their boy anyway, although less electable. Huckabee will get screwed, though, even if he comes in with a plurality of delegates, which is quite possible (though he’s being stupid with this fried squirrel talk; if you’re running for President, try not to make people go “EEWWWW!”)
I asked a friend that this morning.
He’s a swing voter and is considering McCain but his in-laws are big Republicans and he told me that they hated McCain.
These are typical suburban Republican upper middle class people. They wholeheartedly support George Bush – even now, pretty much. I asked him why they hated McCain and he said he just assumed that George Bush had demonized McCain so much in 2000 that they couldn’t get beyond it. They absolutely hated McCain.
He said he didn’t know who they would vote for in the primary and that it wouldn’t surprise him if they sat it out. Then he thought for a bit and said he might see them voting for Huckabee just because they were staunch Catholics and aligned with him on some of the religious issues.
The whole thing is weird to me. They don’t want a Democrat to win; but they don’t want McCain who is the only one with a remote chance of beating a Democrat.
Sometimes one has to intentially lose a battle in order to win the war. I’m just asking but could it be that given the condition of the financial situation in the country and the failure of the US to achieve the defined goals in Iraq, might the “Grand Plan” be to lose the election so that the Dems will discover that what they have been given can’t possibly be corrected within a four year period. Then, they can return riding their big white horse and “save” the country!
Unless the reports coming out of Wall Street and the potentially enormous job losses being announced and given the innability of the Iraqis to “toe the line” with respect to the Oil Law, the goopers might just be willing to hand the mess over.
It appears that the chimp is trying to lock in the direction of the country internationally and now, he appears to be attempting to do the same domestically. If he does achieve success in this perverse attempt, the dems will inherit a impossible situation.
And, you can bet your ass that the gop will offer zero help!
I know, this is pretty twisted but as you posit, the attacks on mccain keep coming and ……….!
Like I said above, I think their priority is to save the party and their control of it, but losing the election would not accept them, but with one caveat. There must be no extensive investigations retrospectively of the Bush admin. This is what worries me. Clinton dropped a bunch of Iran/Contra related investigations to try to buy Repub cooperation. The noises Obama makes incline me to think he will do the same, and I see no reason to expect different from this year’s Clinton. If the Repubs look willing to throw it, the fix must be in to retrospectively cover Bush’s ass.
“upset them” not “accept them”
IMO, wealthy Republicans don’t think this way. They always like to have options … outs, as it were.
Their #1 goal would be to win again and simply keep on lying about the economy and the way. They will win if they can.
Their #2 option is to have a weak corporatist Democrat in the white house that they can blame everything on.
They may even have a third out in Bloomberg, in case the R and D candidates are both unacceptable.
Trick question?
Because they’re too stupid to know better?
Just guessing.
The GOP is trying to determine what sort of lamb they can afford to sacrifice.