The first results are coming in and Obama is doing well so far. But it is way too early to predict. As of right now the numbers are:
Obama 50%
Clinton 40%
Edwards 10%
Update [2008-1-19 15:16:10 by BooMan]: Now Clinton is up 51-42-7.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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It’s basically tied, but you should turn on CNN for some entertaining coverage from inside Caesar’s Palace.
Entrance polls not good for Obama.
Not good among self-identified Democrats.
Obama is going to need to get the vast majority of the second choices in order to pull this out – at least by my read of the entrance polls. I think that’s unlikely.
But I’ve mostly been wrong this election season. 🙂
he just got not only the other candidate’s votes, but some switches from Clinton to Obama in the televised caucus at Cesar’s Palace. They had reported 2 supporters for Edwards, and 2 others that weren’t Edwards or Obama. Obama was slightly behind Clinton in the initial count. So that meant that not only did they get some, if not all, of the undecides, Obama’s folks must have persuaded some Clinton supporters to change their minds. Interesting.
The race is super tigh t- CNN is showing Clinton up, but by less than 200 votes right now.
the Clintons fought Obama to a draw on the strip and will win with roughly 50% of the vote.
where are you getting that?
here.
I watched. But I don’t think it’s going to happen everywhere.
And even there Obama needed to win bigger to make up for rural areas imo.
.
Advantage to Clinton with % of voters between brackets
White (65%)
Latino (14%)
Catholic (26%)
Female (58%)
Non-union (71%)
Independents (14%) favor Obama
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Anyone who wants to be the nominee for the Democratic party needs to win among self identified Democrats. Winning independents should be the icing on the cake. He got the icing – but there was no cake to put it on.
As someone planning to vote for Obama, I’m concerned about Obama’s strategy.
He’d better win huge in SC next week. It won’t give him momentum but it will stop the decrease in momentum.
And he needs to rethink his strategy. He’s going into the all television phase. He needs to re-tool his message.
That’s part of our problem, as a party. We focus on winning the Democratic party vote, but we need independents to win in November.
Well, yes. But first you have to get the nomination in order to get any votes in November.
He’s been running a GE campaign from the start. He’s actually in a better position to tweak his message to attract self-identified Dems and not lose the goodwill he’s gained among independents. I just don’t know if he’ll do it. His campaign seems locked into this GE strategy.
I just got home from my caucus. In my tiny precinct the room was split almost 50/50. We had 42 total voters. Obama got 21, Clinton got 20 and 1 very excited but dim-witted lady supporting Clinton left before the count, so she didn’t get counted.
My precinct had 6 delegates, so Obama and Clinton each got 3.
By the way, turnout was HUGE for my precinct, probably double what was anticipated. Don’t let the small numbers fool you. We had a small elementary school classroom. There were other precincts at the same school as well.
Initially 2 showed up to support Edwards and 2 were uncommitted. 7 were needed for viability. Both Edwards supporters moved to Obama, 1 Uncommitted (me) went to Obama and 1 to Hillary.
I heard that a neighboring precinct went 2/3 Obama, 1/3 Clinton. Doesn’t look good for Edwards. Most considered this a 2-person race.
I must say I really liked the diverse bunch of people in the Obama crowd – really cool folks. All races, ages, shapes and sizes. Solidarity. The Hillary crowd was almost all women, mostly older, mostly white with a few Hispanics, no blacks. And they were just were vicious. You’re either with them or you’re the enemy, you know? Sad, really.
Your last line had me thinking, it seems that the IRL supporters mirror the online supporters lately. What made the ladies so vicious?
Probably had something to do with being told repeatedly that anyone NOT supporting Obama was obviously on the Clinton payroll.
I’m pretty positive they weren’t accused of being Shillbots. LOL!
And according to the CNN exit polls women were 58% of the vote. Of which Hillary got 52%.
I wish I felt better about this upsurge in women power. I actually wasn’t too upset that she won NH – I rather liked there was a backlash against the media blowing that emotional moment completely out of proportion. But I’m over it. Now I just wonder what they are thinking.
ok, here’s how it went… in my precinct, 24 people stood up for hillary, 22 for obama, and 11 for edwards, which, by caucus delegate-allocation rules, gave 2 delegates to hillary, 2 to obama, and 1 to edwards… oh, yeah < cough, cough >… i stood up for edwards, not cuz i happen to be an edwards supporter, he just happened to be the least objectionable choice… < sigh > not an auspicious start, i’ll admit…
i did strike up a good conversation with a couple who were in the edwards group, and we shared our deep concerns over what’s happening to the constitution, rule of law, and accountability… i’ll probably arrange to meet them for coffee sometime this week…
Was there any discussion of who the second choices would have been if enough Edwards people hadn’t showed up?
HILLARY wins, according to MSNBC.
Once again, thank you New Hampshire!
I’m surprised they’re doing that already. Our precincts were delayed 1/2 hour getting started because of the confusion of where to go. I understand that Washoe County delayed start time to 12 noon from 11:30 because of the widespread confusion at most sites. Many may still be caucusing.
The spread is 8% with 73% reporting. That’s definitive. And sad, I’ll add.
.
(CNN) — Sen. Hillary Clinton has lost a large amount of support among African-Americans, with a majority of black Democrats now supporting Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new poll.
In a national survey by CNN/Opinion Research Corp., 59 percent of black Democrats backed Obama, an Illinois Democrat, for their party’s presidential nomination, with 31 percent supporting Clinton, the senator from New York.
The 28 point lead for Obama is a major reversal from October, when Clinton held a 24 point lead among black Democrats.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."