You remember Pakistan, don’t you? Home of the Islamic bomb and a known nuclear weapons proliferator. Home, somewhere within its borders, to Osama Bin Ladin, and most of his Al Qaeda organization. Ruled by the “wise and gentle” military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, who is one of our “greatest allies” in the War on Terror. Land of assassinations for all politicians named Bhutto. A “peaceful society” of militant Islamic preachers, ethnic divisions and a secret intelligence agency, the ISI, that plays all sides off against the others. Land of an internal revolt in the lovely mountainous region of Waziristan, where government troops have been known to be welcomed into paradise prematurely in battles with local militias and tribal warlords.
Well, believe it or not, things may get even more interesting than they already are over there if this story by the BBC is accurate:
Pakistan has raised the state of alert around its nuclear facilities amid concerns they could be targeted by Islamist militants. […]
In a rare briefing on the issue, [retired Lt. General Khalid Kidwai] told foreign journalists the weapons were protected by an elaborate command and control system, backed up by multiple levels of security. […]
He acknowledged that Islamic militants had begun to attack army personnel in recent months, and that nuclear sites may also become a target.
But he dismissed the possibility of collusion from within the system, saying all personnel dealing with sensitive material had been carefully monitored.
Odd, isn’t it? Pakistan announces it is raising its security alert levels regarding its nuclear facilities because of being possible targets of Al Qaeda and other militants, and then trots out a former General to tell everyone “nothing to see here, move, along.” It’s hard to tell how real this is. We know the Bush administration has been making public statements (and probably private ones as well) about deploying US forces to Pakistan to “assist” Musharraf’s government in combating terrorists and militants, suggestions that Musharraf quickly rejected out of hand.
We also know that the Bush administration has publicly voiced its concerns about the state of Pakistan’s security for it nuclear arsenal recently in an anonymously sourced story published in The Washington Post last November.
(cont.)
Of the world’s nine declared and undeclared nuclear arsenals, none provokes as much worry in Washington as Pakistan’s, numerous U.S. officials said. The government in Islamabad is arguably the least stable. Some Pakistani territory is partly controlled by insurgents bent on committing hostile acts of terrorism in the West. And officials close to the seat of power — such as nuclear engineer A.Q. Khan and his past collaborators in the Pakistani military — have a worrisome track record of transferring sensitive nuclear designs or technology to others.
That record, and the counterterror prism of U.S. policymaking since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, have led the Bush administration to worry less that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal might be used in a horrific war with India than that it could become a security threat to the U.S. homeland in the event of any theft or diversion to terrorist groups.
Because the risks are so grave, U.S. intelligence officials have long had contingency plans for intervening to obstruct such a theft in Pakistan, two knowledgeable officials confirmed. The officials would not discuss details of the plans, which are classified, but several former officials said the plans envision efforts to remove a nuclear weapon at imminent risk of falling into terrorists’ hands.
Clearly the Bushies are concerned about Musharraf’s control over the military and his country or they never would have leaked this information to the Post’s reporter, Joby Warrick. You don’t announce your contingency plans for deploying US forces to a country with nuclear weapons, or make offers to conduct joint military operations with that nation’s military inside its borders, unless you are receiving intelligence that suggests your local strongman in the region may be losing his grip on power. And remember, they were worried about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of extremists and terrorists long before Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in December, an event that clearly made an unsettled country even more unstable politically.
I don’t know how if the threat to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is real or not, or if Pakistan’s nuclear technology or actual bombs are really in danger of falling into the hands of Al Qaida or other Islamic extremists, but nothing in these reports offers any of us much comfort. Clearly President Bush is being told something is seriously wrong in Pakistan, something so serious that he is having his Secretary of Defense issue unsolicited offers of US military assistance/intervention that he must have known would be refused. That sign, in and of itself, is more than worrisome.
Indeed, its down right frightening when you consider all the possible reasons for making public such offers. It’s the equivalent to firing a shot across the bow of Musharraf’s ship of state, one that says “fix this (whatever “this” is) or we will.” The press in America isn’t paying much attention to the situation in Pakistan (only the Bhutto assassination forced them to focus on the unrest in that country for more than 24 hours last month) but they should be. They surely should be. Because the next major intervention by the US military under the command of President Bush might may very well be inside Pakistan, and it might happen sooner than any of us expect.
