Month: January 2008

In a move that makes me wobbly on my Iowa prognostication, Kucinich has asked his supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. That could be enough to put Obama over the top. In 2004, Kucinich threw his support behind John Edwards and it made a big difference. It was odd choice in 2004 and it is a surprising move now. His rationale is brief.

“I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday,
because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade.
This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those
caucus locations where my support doesn’t reach the necessary threshold, I
strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second
choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change.”

This could cost Edwards. It also could cost Hillary.

This is amusing.

The election of John Edwards, Ron Paul or Mike Huckabee would signal that America is fed up with the world and not only wishes to pull up its draw bridges but is serious of trying to do so. Nothing would scare friends or foes more which means that nothing would be resented more. Expect anti-Americanism to reach new heights. Remember that nothing infuriates children more than a lack of parental attention.

Think about that one for a little while. The world is full of children begging for American attention. That’s how a lot of these think. Read the rest, it gets worse. Check out a companion piece from Walter Russell Read. Can you make sense of it?

If you are in the NYC area and you have never heard the classic NYC latin big band style played authentically in a live situation, you owe it to yourself to come down. This band has music from the original libraries of of the Tito Puente, Machito and Tito Rodriquez bands, and is comprised of about 18 musicians who all experienced the functional, day-to-day playing life of those bands when they were THE dance and social music of the latino audience in NYC.

Burning!!!

No other word will quite do.

A few names should suffice for those who know what’s up.

Johnny Rodriquez

Joe Madera

Bobby Porcelli

John Walsh

Sonny Bravo

Mitch Frohman

Until recently…God rest his soul…Mario Rivera

Reynaldo Jorgé

Louis Kahn

 Plus some surprise guests, no doubt.

Under the belts of that band I will bet that there are literally tens of thousands of nights of real, no holds barred NYC latin gigs.

Hazardous duty pay kinds of gigs, from the golden era(s) of the music.

Still in their prime.

Bet on it.

No lame history band of old men.

This band is ON THE CASE!!!

You cannot…I repeat, you CANNOT…record a band like this accurately. The power lies in its rhythmic punch to the gut. That and the simultaneous realization that for all of that power, there is also a highly formal system at work in which the musicians reside with perfect comfort and no apparent excess effort. Listening to even the best recordings of it is like watching a film of Roberto Duran in action. You can get some idea or what’s going on, but you  have to be there…or better, climb into the ring with him…to appreciate what is really going on.

Anyone who wants comps…I think I have enough pull at the club to get some. The Chico O’Farrill band has been there on Sunday nights for 12 years now…say 50 Sundays a year plus maybe 10 week-long engagements. That’s going on 700 gigs. Add in the other 20 weeks or so that i have played there with other bands? Now we are talking about 840+ nights.

That’s about two years and 4 months of my life on that damned bandstand.

I can getcha in, I think.

Email me if you are interested.

Later…

Sam

When an endorsement doesn’t really help. Kind of funny.

How’s the new year treating you so far?

I know what follows is going to be a little depressing.  But I don’t think it has to be.  I think it can be inspirational – sometimes once you know what the problems are then you can begin to identify and discuss what you want to DO about them.

I won’t cover Pakistan because it’s getting a ton of coverage now, nor Iraq.  You already know what’s going on in Iraq.

Everything below refers to just the last week.

Listen to the music from my neighbors and try to keep your spirits up.  2008 has just begun and with hope, courage and hard work the world can be a better place!

Afghanistan – Besides a Canadian soldier being killed, war continues more than 6 years later between the Taliban and NATO/US/Karzai forces leaving a lot of people dead.

Argentina – Economy minister admits “storing” thousands of dollars in her office bathroom.

Azerbaijan – The pro-US dictatorship keeps locking up opposition media.

Bahrain – The pro-US dictatorship has arrested 32 people over “illegal gathering” of people in majority Shi’ite areas.

Bangladesh – Government troops continue to engage in gun battles with pirates.

Bethlehem – Christian priests duke it out on how to clean the Church of the Nativity.  Sigh…

Cambodia – The UN-backed tribunal to try former Khmer Rouge leaders is running out of money.

China – Leading human rights activist and AIDS awareness campaigner Hu Jia is arrested.

Colombia – A dead between the gov’ts of Colombia and Venezuela and the FARC to release a number of hostages held by the FARC have fallen through.  40+ year civil war continues.

Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) – Country still split in two between official gov’t territory and rebel-held territory.

Gambia – Sadly despite a relatively high measure of independence and democracy, absolute dictatorship continues to loom.

Georgia – Besides political corruption and repressive police tactics in Georgia proper, Georgia is closer than ever to outright war with Russian/CIS troops in Abkhazia.  Meanwhile Abkhazia’s PM was targeted for assassination by unknown actors but survived.

India – Various separatist/terrorist groups in the north continue decades long battles against the central government.

Israel/Palestine – Same old shit.

Kenya – Hundreds dead due to rioting and civil strife after a very close presidential election.

Kosovo – Still on the brink of disaster.

Lebanon – The army has clashed with Hezbollah in southern Beirut.

Meanwhile army troops clash with Palestinians in a refugee camp.

Mali – One of the most stable and democratic nations in Africa continues to battle ethnic Tuareg rebels in the north.

Myanmar (Burma) – Dictatorship still rocking like a hurricane.

Nepal – Elections are on track but various militias continue to terrorize outlying districts, kidnapping people for ransom.  Over 25,000 people are still internally displaced refugees.

Nigeria – The insurgency in the oil-rich areas of the south continue with more kidnappings for ransom of foreigner workers.

North Korea – 50+ years of the same dictatorship continue.  Meanwhile the NK government failed to meet a deadline on its nuclear weapons disarmament program and Bush basically said “so what?”.

Philippines – U.S. troops continue their war in the south against Muslim groups, alienating a lot of people.

Serbia – Ratko Mladic still a free man.

Somalia – More than a year later, southern half of the country still militarily occupied by Ethiopian troops and battles still ongoing between Somali “gov’t” forces/Ethiopian troops and UIC forces.  Meanwhile in eastern Ethiopia proper the Ogaden National Liberation Front continues to fight Ethiopian troops.

Sri Lanka – Ongoing civil war between LTTE and gov’t forces continue with artillery shelling, gun battles and the murder of a Tamil member of parliament.

Sudan – Hey remember Darfur?  That war continues.

Meawhile a U.S. diplomat was gunned down in the capital.

Thailand – Civil war with southern provinces continue as various gun battles and insurgent actions leave scores dead.

Meanwhile the country is still “in transition” from a military coup that occurred September 2006.

Taiwan – The country’s president says China has increased the number of missiles pointed at the island nation.

Tunisia – The al-Qaeda linked GPLC continues to operate in the country

Turkey – Bombing raids continue into northern Iraq as the war between Kurdish separatists/terrorists continue.

Uganda – Massive flooding has led UNICEF to declare a state of emergency.

Meanwhile the 25+ year civil war between the LRA and the people/state of Acholi continues as the LRA crosses over into the nation of the CAR.

U.S. – Amongst everything else, the dollar is tanking and countries are abandoning it for the euro.

Meanwhile big media corporations just got FCC blessing to grow even larger.

Uzbekistan – Pro-US dictator Islam Karimov rigs elections to continue 18-year rule.

Zimbabwe – Thousands arrested for violating gov’t price controls as the economy spirals into total destruction.

And now the good news:

David Hicks is a free man.

The president of Syria has promised to release 7 political prisoners.

Bhutan takes tiny steps towards democracy.

Rasim Delic goes on trial.

Somehow Kyrgyzstan is narrowly hanging onto democracy.

Some genuinely good news from Afghanistan.

The government of Liberia tries something new to help the country heal from decades of civil war.

Democracy seems to be hanging on in Timor Leste (E. Timor)

After decades of civil war Sierra Leone makes the first baby steps towards democracy and true peace.

My new home country of Romania leads the world in countries that protect the privacy of its citizens.  The U.S. is at the bottom unfrotunately.

And last but not least, a message from 70 years ago of peace from Albert Einstein.

Dreams that you dare to dream really do come true.

Peace

The Iowa caucuses are polling too close to call between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. However, there are some hints. The Southern Political Report tells us that ‘InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus. Here’s their most significant finding:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

I’m going on kind of gut feel for this right now, but those results seem right to me. Actually, I don’t see Edwards topping 40% and I don’t see Obama necessarily coming in third, but I do think it is close enough that second choices and strength in rural areas will be enough to push Edwards over the top. Whether Edwards scores a rather large 7% margin or a more narrow 1-3% margin will depend on how well he does among first choices.

And, of course, I could be completely wrong. There are polls out that show Clinton pulling away and Obama with a strong lead. Those numbers could hold up.

For the sake of a long primary season, I hope Edwards wins. I don’t want the nominee to lock things up on February 5th when 21 states have their primaries. I’d like to see the battle take in the opinions of as many voters in as many different states as possible. Hell, I’d love a brokered convention, if at all possible.

If we see an Edwards/Clinton/Obama finish, I wonder what effect it will have on Obama’s campaign. Regardless, the Clinton’s will try to spin defeat as victory. I don’t think Edwards has that option.

In taking down Mitt Romney this morning, David Brooks had a good line that I hope is true.

As Walter Mondale was the last gasp of the fading New Deal coalition, Romney has turned himself into the last gasp of the Reagan coalition.

Actually, I don’t care if Romney is the last gasp, or Huckabee, or McCain, or Thompson…just so long as it is the last gasp of the Reagan coalition.

Brooks’ overall point was that the Mittster is totally, irredeemably unelectable in November and so GOP caucus goers should look elsewhere (wink…wink…McCain…nudge…nudge). It’s actually pretty good advice.

     With the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaching the candidates are pressing their main messages with renewed intensity. The key to campaigning appears to be to “stay on message” regardless of the chaos around you. I am not sure how substantive it is to have a candidate repeat the same slogan over and over, to our political discourse, but this seems to be the conventional wisdom. The daily mantra for Hillary Clinton is “strength and experience”. The ex-First Lady cites her experience as a major difference between her and her opponents and one worthy of giving her the nomination. Something about her being able to “hit the ground” running, to where we aren’t quite sure. The experience that Ms. Clinton is touting is not just her experience as a junior Senator from New York, given that her closest two rivals also share that experience, no it is her experience in the White House as First Lady.

But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda.

And during one of President Bill Clinton’s major tests on terrorism, whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan in 1998, Mrs. Clinton was barely speaking to her husband, let alone advising him, as the Lewinsky scandal sizzled. NY Times

     I for one believe that her experience as First Lady is not necessarily transferable to the position she is now vying for, no more than I believe that First Lady Laura Bush is qualified to be President based on her experiences in the White House. For some reason in this country it is assumed and accepted by many that political positions are hereditary and therefore subject to transfer between fathers and sons, husbands and wives, or brothers. I have often found the reasoning for this strange and not very convincing. I think that many times history has borne out the fact that this idea of transference is not a reliable method of picking our leaders.

     While I agree that as First Lady Hillary played an important role and was I am sure privy to more than she is letting on due to security concerns, but even so there is a big difference in being the mate of a President and the President. No matter how close the two may have been, the responsibility for decisions was always on Mr. Clinton, as well as the repercussions of those decisions. If Ms. Clinton can demonstrate where she was in fact the “decider” on policy and the recipient of the responsibility for those decisions then I think she has a case, until then however her claims to that experience I think is misleading.

     Understandably, the relationship between husband and wife is exclusive and while the dynamics of that relationship is unique to each couple, it is commonly assumed that most decisions are shared or at least discussed between spouses. I am sure the Presidency is similar, but to what degree does a President discuss and share with their spouse? Because we have never had a female President we only have one side of the equation to consider. The question then becomes how much influence and information was shared between the Clintons? Ms. Clinton has been murky in this area, except to produce generalizations concerning her access to the decision making process. The problem I have with Ms. Clinton touting her White House experience is that we have no way of knowing the extent of her involvement and even if she were in fact part of the discussions providing input and making decisions are not the same.

Friends of Mrs. Clinton say that she acted as adviser, analyst, devil’s advocate, problem-solver and gut check for her husband, and that she has an intuitive sense of how brutal the job can be. What is clear, she and others say, is that Mr. Clinton often consulted her, and that Mrs. Clinton gained experience that Mr. Obama, John Edwards and every other candidate lack — indeed, that most incoming presidents did not have. NY Times

     So, I guess my question is, does being First Lady give Ms. Clinton a leg up on her opponents in the experience department? Does my being married to a doctor give me valuable experience to begin diagnosing ailments, dispensing medication, and performing medical procedures? I am inclined to say no. While Ms. Clinton may have a better understanding of the stress, the difficulty, and the protocol of the Presidency, in my mind that does not equate to a marketable difference between her and her opponents in experience. The experience she brings as being the spouse of a President is distinctive compared to any of the other candidates this year or in years past, but again I have difficulty translating that to her now being uniquely qualified to be President. Maybe it’s a woman thing and I am not getting it, but what I do know is that being around the White House is no guarantee that someone is ready and qualified to be President. Maybe if that were true our current occupant would have done a better job.

The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth — persistent, persuasive and unrealistic – John F. Kennedy

The Disputed Truth

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project & My Left Wing

click to enlarge
It is amazing to me that TCD started publication in 2004, it seems just like yesterday but when you realize Bush was reelected in 2004, it seems like forever!

This year we plan two new special series, usually one would be enough, but I am particularly sick of the Bush Administration and there is not much left to say about that bunch unless there is another “wide stance” moment. Look for new characters, new locations and a new look for the website. The layout is going wider, better and SHORTER! God love my blogroll!

Anyway, tomorrow we will be back to the grind of the campaign as Iowa will lay waste to many campaigns and grace the lives of a cherished few. My Iowa picks are John Edwards for the Dems – for the Repubs, I get the feeling Huckabee will eek out a win but barely. If he comes in second, it will be a squeaker.

That is all for today – I am off to nurse my hangover.

.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."