A brokered Convention? you’re kidding right?
Chris Bowers opines:
Super Delegates To Determine Nominee
It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year. Here is the current situation:
* With Michigan and Florida removed from the equation, 2,025 delegates are required to win the nomination, and there are 3,253 pledged delegates.
* To date, four states with a combined 137 pledged delegates have held nominating contests.
* Currently, Barack Obama is projected with 63 pledged delegates, and Hillary Clinton is projected with 48 (source).
* On Super Tuesday, 22 states and a couple territories with a combined 1,688 pledged delegates will hold nominating contests.From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largestpledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75).[.]
UPDATE: Bowers is not alone. His colleague Matt said, the Clinton camp agrees
Howard Wolfson: This may go to the convention
by Matt Stoller
I’m on a conference call with Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign, and they are emphasizing how this contest is going to go beyond Tuesday, and may go until the convention. Wolfson is discussing party rules and proportional representation, and says that these rules have trumped the intended front-loading of the primaries to pick a nominee early on.
… Wolfson would not confirm the $10M January number.
$10 million January number? Is that all they raised as against Obama’s $32 million haul? No wonder they were mum preferring to spin they out-rsaised Obama in the Q4 2007 cycle. But I digress.
I read earlier today that Chelsea has been calling the unpledged Super Delegates to lend their support. Hmmmmm!
If we do have a brokered convention – (Oh, how we screw ourselves)- there’s that tiny problem of do we seat the Michigan and Florida delegates?
Anyhow, whatever; a resolution by the super delegates will factor in “electability” and which one of the two candidates has demonstrated the ability to expand the party’s majority. In my book Obama takes it.
There’s also speculation that the convention could go to Al Gore. I don’t see that in the cards. Al looks to be very comfortable enjoying life.
Here is a primer explaining the The Convention Delegate Process. – Sam Boyd, The American Prospect
