Open Thread

Posted by BooMan | Feb 4, 2008 | 43 |

Have any predictions? I hope they’re better than your Super Bowl predictions.

About The Author

BooMan

Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.

43 Comments

RollaMO on February 4, 2008 at 4:05 pm

Damn, I was going to predict a pre-polling emotive moment by Sen. Clinton, but it already happened today at Yale!
- idredit on February 4, 2008 at 4:15 pm
  
  yea she tears up pwhen polls are not going her way. It’s being given heavy exposure around the world. CNN leads the way so it should swing votes her way.
  
  Times Uk: Hillary Clinton sheds a tear on eve of crucial election, again
  
  Financial Times Damp-eyed Clinton heads for big test
  
  ya think it’ll work a 2nd time? Count on it
  
  “They’re beating up on her.”
  
  BooMan may yet get to decise this thing.
  - Brendan Skwire on February 4, 2008 at 4:28 pm
    
    You know, my prediction was going to be the same as my last (“I will lose my temper within the next 48 hours”) and I’ll be damned: idredit’s comment has made it already come true.
    
    Personally, I think the waterworks was sincere last time, and I’m a guy prone to waterworks (i can’t watch movies anymore, I just tear up at the climax, whether it’s Rocky, Knocked Up, Monsters Inc, you freakin’ name it).
    
    That said, a repeat performance is just manipulative.
    
    Boohoohoo.
    - fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 4:34 pm
      
      That a lot of people are seeing it as manipulative. Check the comments at CNNs Political Ticker I had been on First Read this morning and saw comments like, “So, who wants to bet Clinton’s gonna cry some time today?” Ugh. I had a post for my blog all set to go, when I refreshed that page, to see that FR had updated the page with video of Clinton tearing up. Again. My blog post had to be scrubbed and rewritten.
      - idredit on February 4, 2008 at 4:58 pm
        
        tonight, she’s on David Letterman.
        
        My cuz from GA just called. In the south, they’re looking for Obama to take GA, AL and Tennessee.
      - blksista on February 4, 2008 at 5:44 pm
        
        I just hope Obama’s campaigning was in time.
    - Heart of the Rockies on February 4, 2008 at 5:04 pm
      
      Like the incessant high security alerts.
    - Real History Lisa on February 4, 2008 at 5:07 pm
      
      I can’t help but agree. I think the event was planned for maximum emotional impact. And I think people are smarter than that.
  - Real History Lisa on February 4, 2008 at 5:08 pm
    
    …because she’s about to lose California. 😉
- maryb2004 on February 4, 2008 at 4:17 pm
  
  The Obama and Huckabee endorsements in your local paper were interesting. Kind of heavy on the Second Amendment/gun analysis for Obama.
  - RollaMO on February 4, 2008 at 4:34 pm
    
    Yeah, gun rights are somewhat of a big deal here, which is why they went to lengths to explain his stance.
mainsailset on February 4, 2008 at 4:26 pm

I saw that Obama has signed on to the Feingold/Webb/Tester amendment.
Predictions, aw I’d just be happy if Mitt closed his checkbook after tomorrow. ‘Course it looks like Hillary & Obama will be in it for the long haul which on the bright side could keep Bloomberg definitively out (old story) and Nader doesn’t seem to be be getting any traction in trying to elbow his way in, thank Gawd.
It does strike as unusual that Hillary isn’t getting any roll of endorsements in the past week vs Obama is swimming in them.
- idredit on February 4, 2008 at 5:00 pm
  
  I predict that if it appears that Clinton has a fair chance to prevail, Bloomberg will announce he’s in the race.
  - mainsailset on February 4, 2008 at 5:27 pm
    
    At this point, Bloomberg may be having an identity crisis. We just finished watching Rudy toss $30 million for one delegate; Romney’s kids are pissed about their vanishing inheritance and all for what? Bloomberg has to be wondering what message he could deliver that would coalesce people who have just discovered their differences.
  - anarchronarchist on February 4, 2008 at 8:11 pm
    
    Bloomberg has a relationship with McCain apparently. He pretty much said he’s out if McCain is the nominee, I believe. Perhaps he’s decided to buy the VP instead – much more of a bargain (just ask Romney).
    - anarchronarchist on February 4, 2008 at 8:12 pm
      
      especially from cash-strapped McCain/GOP
fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 4:28 pm

That tomorrow is going to be my little girl’s first time cheering an election. After complaining about primaries this past month, she’s excited for tomorrow. She wants “Orack Obama” to win. She thinks his wife is a queen. She’s thrilled that tomorrow she gets to wear her Obama buttons when I go vote. Is that normal in a 4 year old?
- boran2 on February 4, 2008 at 4:51 pm
  
  My 9 year old calls Bush an asshole. I wonder where that came from. Hmm.
  - fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 4:55 pm
    
    My daughter has only been behind Obama this past week. I was watching something and she asked me who it was. I said, “The next POTUS.” and she said, “But you hate the president.” I laughed and explained how the bad man is going away, hopefully to jail and a new person will take his place. This was a kid who, by 18 mos., knew to throw things at the TV if Bush was on there.
    - mainsailset on February 4, 2008 at 5:02 pm
      
      I was having a really bad day until I read this. Thank you
    - CabinGirl on February 4, 2008 at 5:41 pm
      
      Good to know you’re raising them right. 🙂
  - blksista on February 4, 2008 at 5:37 pm
    
    Did he sound like this?
dada on February 4, 2008 at 4:31 pm

l’m going with punxsutawney phil, who saw his shadow saturday, leading to the forecast of six more weeks of winter.

since it’s snowing again/still, he’s got a better chance than l to be right.

lTMF’sA
S2 on February 4, 2008 at 4:56 pm

I’m guessing Cheney offs Bush, declares marshal law, pundits shut up, Election Day is canceled in favor of a big sale at the mall for “New Freedom Day®.”
keepinon on February 4, 2008 at 5:06 pm

I’m guessing that Mercury Morris will continue to run his mouth about the 72 Dolphins until his last day. BTW Congrats BooMan, your Giants were Super yesterday.
rae on February 4, 2008 at 5:28 pm

I predict that Booman decides who gets the democratic nomination.

…oops, wait, Kos already predicted that one:

“Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that?”

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/4/121157/2906/11/449513
- idredit on February 4, 2008 at 6:29 pm
  
  Oh No.
  
  Chris Bowers opines
  
  Super Delegates To Determine Nominee
  
  It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year. Here is the current situation:
  
  * With Michigan and Florida removed from the equation, 2,025 delegates are required to win the nomination, and there are 3,253 pledged delegates.
  * To date, four states with a combined 137 pledged delegates have held nominating contests.
  * Currently, Barack Obama is projected with 63 pledged delegates, and Hillary Clinton is projected with 48 (source).
  * On Super Tuesday, 22 states and a couple territories with a combined 1,688 pledged delegates will hold nominating contests.
  
  From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largestpledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75).[.]
  
  A brokered Convention? you’re kidding right?
  
  The super delegates will need to assess electability and who’ll bring out the vote expand the party’s majority. In my book Obama takes it.
  
  Here is a primer explaining the The Convention Delegate Process.
  
  I read Chelsea has been calling the unpledged Super Delegates for their support.
  - maryb2004 on February 4, 2008 at 8:34 pm
    
    oh. my. god.
    
    I just went over to read about this and … what a drama queen he is. The day before Super Tuesday and he decides that we must figure out a solution to this problem immediately.
    
    Immediately, I tell you!!!!
    
    Thank TFSM I read the posts in reverse chronological order so I could walk back his hysteria.
PsiFighter37 on February 4, 2008 at 5:36 pm

Predictions below…

Alabama: Obama wins by 5-10%
Alaska: Obama wins by 20%+
American Samoa: no fuckin’ clue
Arizona: Clinton wins by less than 5%
Arkansas: Clinton wins by 15-20%
California: Obama wins by less than 5%
Colorado: Obama wins by 5-10%
Connecticut: Obama wins by less than 5%
Delaware: no fuckin’ clue
Georgia: Obama wins by 20%+
Idaho: Obama wins by 20%+
Illinois: Obama wins by 30%+
Kansas: Obama wins by 10-15%
Massachusetts: Clinton wins by less than 5%
Minnesota: Obama wins by less than 5%
Missouri: Clinton wins by less than 5%
New Jersey: Clinton wins by 5-10%
New Mexico: Obama wins by less than 5%
New York: Clinton wins by 15-20%
North Dakota: Obama wins by 15-20%
Oklahoma: Clinton wins by 20%+
Tennessee: Clinton wins by 10-15%
Utah: Obama wins by 20%+

In summary…

Obama blowouts: 5 (AK, GA, ID, IL, UT)
Obama wins: 4 (AL, CO, KS, ND)
Obama squeakers: 4 (CA, CT, MN, NM)
Clinton squeakers: 3 (AZ, MA, MO)
Clinton wins: 5 (AR, NJ, NY, TN)
Clinton blowouts: 1 (OK)
No fuckin’ clue: 3 (American Samoa, DE, Democrats Abroad)

In total, that’s 13 states for Obama, 9 for Clinton. I’m taking a bit of a risk, but I do think Obama can pull out California despite early voting. New Mexico is the only other state I’m a bit agnostic about on the Obama side; I do think he will win in CT despite geography. On the other hand, there are plenty of opportunities abound in the Clinton side (AZ, MA, MO, NJ) given recent polls.

I won’t predict the delegate count (it’ll be close), but Obama will win the combined popular vote.
- fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 5:48 pm
  
  You’re that positive about CT? I thought there was like a 12 pt. spread in Clinton’s favor in that state. Is Lamont actively campaigning for Obama there?
  - PsiFighter37 on February 4, 2008 at 6:06 pm
    
    Probably conflicting polls, but I think Obama will take CT. College voters will help put him over the top.
- blksista on February 4, 2008 at 5:48 pm
  
  Americans Abroad report first Super Tuesday votes in Indonesia.
anna in philly on February 4, 2008 at 5:42 pm

i predict my puppy is not too happy about having his nuts cut off today. right now he is hiding in the bathroom behind the toilet.

i predict no snow for philly till 1st week of march when the flower show opens.

i predict obama takes every state on tues except california and montana.

i still dont know who im voting for but the more i hear people whining about hillary’s tears the more i lean towards voting for her out of the frustration that people who should know better are criticizing her and accusing her of not being sincere….anyof you criticize obama for his fake southern accent he pulls out when he needs it?

fuck i want a president who cries every day….there is plenty to cry about.
- anna in philly on February 4, 2008 at 5:43 pm
  
  whoops…i meant obama wins everything except NY and montana…..he will win california.
- fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 5:51 pm
  
  I’ve never heard it. I know it annoys me when people accuse Clinton of a fake southern accent, cause then I have to explain that she lived there for a hundred years eons ago. But I’ve never heard a fake southern accent from Obama and I pick up on those things pretty fast.
  - blksista on February 4, 2008 at 8:29 pm
    
    Obama is attempting to match the cadences and power of the Southern (and Baptist) black ministers.
    
    He already has a great speaking voice; I know that when he is speaking to black audiences in particular, he is trying to appeal to their level.
    
    So far, so good.
    
    He’s not trying to be fake, but he is paying homage to that tradition of moral suasion in speaking to African American constituencies.
    
    Of course, Jesse (and some Morehouse and other seminary grads) could probably talk rings around him. But that’s not the point. He’s adopted enough to make this kind of speechifying his own.
    - fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 8:45 pm
      
      Because then I guess I have fake southern accent too, on those rare moments I’m forced to give a speech. I can’t help that though, I was raised with preachers so I don’t know any other way to give a speech. IOW, since I haven’t heard him give a speech any other way, I just assumed that how he gives speeches.
fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 5:42 pm

What happened to the order of the comments?
- Oscar In Dallas on February 4, 2008 at 6:20 pm
  
  It looks it’s ordering them by rating – the higher-rated comments to the top. Somebody probably flipped the wrong switch in the control center.
mainsailset on February 4, 2008 at 7:04 pm

Yikes, Barbara Boxer is on fire on CSPAN. She & Reid & Shummer have a little round robin chat going on about FISA & the Stimulus Pkg. Boxer’s right up there with a Ted Kennedy for fire today.
- dada on February 4, 2008 at 7:27 pm
  
  durbin just took the RATpubs to the woodshed.
  
  lTMF’sA
fabooj on February 4, 2008 at 10:46 pm

One more reason why Romney lacks the judgement to be president:

Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, campaigning alongside Romney, told reporters that if voters “want a conservative as the nominee of this party, you must vote for Mitt Romney. Because Mitt Romney is the only person in this race that can stop John McCain and the elite in the party who don’t as much care about those issues that a lot of folks in Georgia care about.” (MSNBC)
Andrew Longman on February 5, 2008 at 10:16 am

McCain calling for a military draft this morning at a campaign rally? Boo get on it.

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