Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire has endorsed Obama and will be appearing with him at the Key Arena at noon local time. At this point in the nomination process, governors are the most valuable endorsements that you can get. A senator or rep can provide you a nice press clipping and some organizational tools and phone/email lists, but nothing compared to a governor. This event will be a nice media event for Obama leading into the caucuses tomorrow.
As I have written elsewhere, Clinton needs a win somewhere between now and the March 4th contests that include the delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas. She doesn’t have good odds of winning the Louisiana primary because of the demographics of that state and she doesn’t have any chance I can see of winning the Nebraska caucuses because of both Sen. Ben Nelson and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey’s support for Obama, and because Obama has demonstrated superior strength in that region’s caucuses. Washington is Clinton’s best chance for a win tomorrow and a shut-out will not be helpful when Mainers get up and go to their caucuses tomorrow.
If Clinton loses all three contests tomorrow and the caucuses Maine on Sunday, she is going to have a devil of a time warding off Obama’s momentum and picking up a win in Virginia on Tuesday. Here’s how it could look on Wednesday.
Post Super Tuesday Contests
Obama
Louisiana
Nebraska
Washington
Maine
Maryland
District of Colombia
Virginia
Clinton
Zilch
Nada
Zero
Bupkus
If that is the case, then Howard Dean’s remarks will begin to take on more urgent meaning.
The narrow margin in delegates, and the growing likelihood that it will remain close, prompted concern on Wednesday from the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, who said Tuesday night that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton should avoid taking the nominating fight all the way to the party convention in August.
“I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April,” Mr. Dean said Wednesday on the NY1 cable news channel, “but if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party.”
An adviser to Mr. Dean said Wednesday that he had not discussed the idea with either candidate.
“He was essentially laying down a marker that if need be, he is prepared to step in and try to help resolve the situation,” the adviser said.
Clinton will have a week to prepare for the February 19th caucus in Hawaii and primary in Wisconsin. Hawaii is where Obama was born and raised for the first few years of his life. He should be a hometown favorite there. If Clinton cannot win in Wisconsin, she’ll have lost nine contests in a row (ten if you count the US Virgin Islands). While still technically alive in the delegate counts, shouldn’t we expect her to bow to reality at that point? I know there will be pressure from all quarters for her to accept some kind of deal. This is what is going to happen unless Clinton can win in Washington, or Maine, or Virginia, or Wisconsin. If she can’t win any of them, she should seriously consider bowing out.
