POLITICAL DIARY II
Two of the fallacies (non sequiturs) I’ve been hearing are the ‘big state’ and ‘red state’ fallacies, which are based some poor reasoning. In this case, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are at fault.
Firstly, the logic that wins in big state Democratic primaries/caucuses equates to a win in the general election is invalid. There is no big state demographic, only a categorical grouping. This curious bit of dis-logic seems to be based on the electoral winner-take-all system (except for NE & ME) which mathematically favors the campaign that wins these states in the fall election. Large blue states, of which there are many, would almost certainly to go to either Democratic candidate in the fall. A Big red state such as Texas is not likely to go to either Democrat.
Secondly, red state appeal is not much better, logically speaking. A win in a closed primary indicates only that the candidate has greater appeal to a minority of the voters in a red state. A win in a open primary/caucus may indicate some potential for crossover appeal, but this is not enough to presume success in the general election without other supporting evidence.
