Put yourself in the place of most prominent African Americans in the Democratic Party last summer. You’ve got a wonderful African American candidate for President in Barack Obama. On the other hand, you also have Hillary Clinton running for President. Maybe you owe her some favors, or her husband favors, or maybe she’s just a long time friend. You don’t trust white voters to support any black candidate for president, even one as “articulate” as Barack Obama. The Clintons have been pushing you hard for your support, maybe even making subtle threats about remembering who was for them and who was against them should she win. Not to mention Hillary was out fund raising every other candidate by multiples of ten. Over a hundred million dollars.
And of course, you’ve got the mainstream media narrative which had already anointed her as the Democratic nominee 6 months before any primary or caucus was even held. So, you stick with what you know, even if that means going with the white candidate over the black one. Because politics is all about perception, and the perception was Obama was a lightweight who would be exposed once the primary season started, and Hillary Clinton was “inevitable.” Hey, nobody wants to back the losing horse in a race. So many black politicians and Democratic Party activists jumped on the Clinton bandwagon. She was the safe bet.
Now it’s six, seven months later and – surprise, surprise – Obama is the one who looks like the leader. His campaign has all the cash, all the support among the African American population, all the enthusiasm from white voters, young voters, independent voters, and all the “Big Mo” from winning more states and more delegates despite the best efforts of the Clinton campaign to slime him by bringing race into the campaign, by ginning up phony smears of influence peddling and plagiarism, etc. It looks more and more like Obama will win more states and more pledged delegates than Clinton, a fact that the Clinton campaign is tacitly acknowledging by its focus on winning the votes of “super delegates” and now even threats of “poaching ” Obama’s pledged delegates at the convention.
This isn’t the way things were supposed to happen, but it is the way things are. So, prominent African American supporters of Senator Clinton, what do you do now?
(cont.)
Hillary Clinton’s black supporters — especially the most prominent ones — hadn’t expected their candidate to be in a dogfight right now. They thought Barack Obama was an election cycle or two away from being serious presidential timber. They thought Bill Clinton’s presidency and the close relationships the Clintons had forged with African Americans would translate into goo-gobs of votes in ’08. They were wrong. […]
Obama has swamped Clinton among black voters in each of the 20 contests that had exit polls and large enough samples of African Americans to be meaningful. Just to put that kind of shutout in perspective, black voters represent the only demographic group that the New York senator has not carried at least once during the Democratic primary campaign. Obama now has such a lock on the loyalties of African Americans — 84 percent of the black vote in Alabama, 87 percent in Georgia, 84 percent in Maryland, and on and on — that the black vote is no longer contestable.
Which brings us back to the dilemma facing some of Clinton’s high-profile black supporters — those with titles and constituencies of their own. They are feeling some kind of crazy pressure. Last Friday, about 25 of them held an hour-long conference call to discuss what one described as an effort to “pester, intimidate, question our blackness” for not supporting Obama.
The catalyst for the call was a report in the New York Times that Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) was wavering in his support of Clinton. Lewis would not comment, but according to the Times, the congressman had indicated he was prepared to fully flip and back Obama and thus be more in step with his congressional district, which voted 3-to-1 for Obama on Super Tuesday. […]
Some of Clinton’s other black supporters decided to rally and try to blunt the fallout. Among those on the conference call were Trenton Mayor Doug Palmer, former Denver mayor Wellington Webb, and congresswomen Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas and Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio.
Palmer was among the more forceful voices, urging others on the call, as he put it yesterday, “to stand up and say why you’re for Hillary Clinton in the face of adversity. We can’t afford to be wishy-washy . . . Stand up. Fight. Advocate for your candidate. Don’t capitulate. . . . Don’t let nobody intimidate or threaten you. Just hold on.” […]
Black Clinton supporters are feeling the same heat that black backers of Walter Mondale felt in 1984. Many black elected officials signed on early with Mondale, some because of the former vice president’s civil rights record and his long ties to African Americans, some because of practical political considerations: They knew Jesse Jackson wasn’t going to be the Democratic nominee, and so they went with the likely winner. They played it safe. […]
Like Jackson back then, Obama’s campaign is creating unease for black politicians who find themselves out of sync with their constituencies. One big difference, of course: Obama is in a position to win.
The moment, observes Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor and longtime speaker of the California assembly, is like nothing that has ever been realized for a black officeholder. “It’s like Michael Jordan and Dr. J. wrapped into one, playing basketball by themselves,” says Brown, who is neutral in the presidential race. […]
It appears many black politicians also didn’t understand how far racial pride would extend this election season. They are being called out on blogs, and petitioned in their home districts for going against Obama — to their surprise and dismay.
“Some African American leaders, quite frankly, underestimated him,” said Cassandra Butts, a longtime Obama friend and adviser.
They’re not underestimating him anymore.
The longer they wait the more intense the pressure will be to flip to Obama from the members of their own communities who have voted overwhelmingly for him in state after state. And for those who don’t switch, but remain loyal to the Clintons? I think they may be surprised, and even stunned, by the backlash that might occur should African American voters see Clinton win the nomination at a brokered convention even if Obama has more delegates going in, and more states won. I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes if that happens.
Because it could get very ugly very quickly.
