Here’s a link to the Wisconsin county sites. Here’s the CNN site for the Wisconsin returns. If you find a better accumulator, but a link in the thread. As far as I can tell, turnout was a little depressed in the morning because of ice on the roads and extreme cold. Turnout was reported as highest around college campuses. I can’t predict the outcome, although I would have preferred higher turnout in the morning hours. At the same time, Obama has the more committed voters, so anything that creates an obstacle to voting probably favors him.
One thing I don’t want to hear is that Obama didn’t win by enough. There are two battles tonight. One is for the most delegates and that is the most important measure of success. The other is for the popular vote, and whoever wins it, wins it.
I also have no idea what will happen in Hawaii.
Don’t older voters tend to vote early in the day? If so, any benefit there would seem to go Obama’s way, correct? By contrast, don’t young people tend to vote later?
I can see no returns online… you are seeing early returns?? Please feed THE HUNGER and post here..
I got nothing, but this is interesting:
http://www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/Early_Wis_exit_poll_highlights_02192008.html
As a former resident of Northern Minnesota, trust me… Unless it’s the “blizzard of the century” with absolute white-out conditions, these people go about their business as usual. The cold temps and ice don’t even phase them. They’ll get out and vote if they have any motivation for their candidate – and yes, this would favor Obama.
One thing that’s been bugging me about TV political “analysis” of Wisconsin voters – it all sounds so wrong to me. They say the demographics favor Hillary because these people are white, working class – and that favors Hillary. Now that’s some deep analysis. Just look at their neighbors Minnesota, North Dakota and Iowa. Who did they favor? Obama – in a big way. They look around and they notice that one of these politicians actually runs an “honest” campaign and excites the young folks – the future. That’s pretty powerful stuff to these folks. Honesty – no mud slinging, lies or fear tactics – is the way to win them over.
Meet Jason, typical (as I remember them) Wisconsin Democratic voter. In this interview with the Obama campaign, he points out one issue that I never cared about much but most of the locals do – gun ownership – is the issue that gets Republicans the votes. Otherwise, they would vote Democratic.
What I’m most interested in seeing tonight in the exit polls is the number of Republican men who chose to vote for Obama, rather than a Republican.
that to me is the measure of electability : how many Republican men who are disgusted with the GOP would be willing to vote either Clinton or Obama.
In all my anecdotal posts over at my blog, all the examples I’ve come across is of Republican men wanting Obama over any other candidate —and this was waaaaaay before ANYBODY had declared their candidacies.
great to bump into you over here at the Frog Pond
LOL!
I stalk Martin.
He’s afraid of me but not enough to put out a restraining order.
you can always pacify him with beer.
or another Giants Superbowl win 🙂
Is how Clinton has the white blue-collar worker sewn up. The TV and newspapers tell American that Obama does well with rich, college educated whites. Yet, we see the blowouts in Minnesota, Idaho and North Dakota and we are supposed to believe that all those northern and midwestern states just happen to have a lockdown on all the rich, college educated whites in America? We’re supposed to by the fantasy that there are no blue collar workers in Idaho or North Dakota?
PREACH!
I was out the door at 6:30 AM this morning and I was just fine. It’s cold, but this is Wisconsin. Extreme cold starts around -25, not 5.
Yeah, it’s cold up here (St.Paul, MN, represent’n!), but that’s no big deal. It’s how we roll.
I will be very surprised if Hil manages to even keep it very close.
What’s with the polls?
a one day wonder – go figure
Yesterday Gallup had Obama up nationally. Today his lead vaporized.
but SurveyUSA, not sure their track record, has Obama gaining in Ohio as Hillary’s lead shrinks
btw, the last few days. Obama has been campaigning in Ohio.
the NYT has a pretty good results site HERE that’s worth checking out as results start to come in.
they typically break it down to county level with interactive maps.
no info as of now.
and there wasn’t. Seems as though more people were coming over to vote though, since this is about the time people get off work.
I’ve always been lucky to be near walking distance of any polling place; they’re either around the corner or in the next block. It didn’t take long. In fact, it took more time to walk over. You just connect someone’s name to your vote, then feed it into some kind of insta-compute machine.
There were no other propositions or people running for office to really make people stand in lines.
Was 8 degrees in Mad City when I went out, but the sun has just gone down, and I still have on my knee-length Timberland boots bought straight from 125th Street in Harlem. I think the O man’s may do it in all three states tonight.
I may murder Tweety before the night’s over, though.
OMG, I hope you’re right! Of course, I was nervous about Maryland for both his race and Donna Edwards’. I always assume the worst, which isn’t a good plan for life, but prudent in campaigns.
From what people were saying over in the discussions at DKos, the greater mass of voters tend to come at lunch and in the afternoon/evening, after work (and classes). So they didn’t seem concerned by the apparent low turnout early in the day.
Guess it’s a wait and see….
Hawai’i returns won’t start coming in until after midnight-1am EST, sounds like.
I’ve a bad feel about tonight. Clinton went dirty at last minute. Dropped a mailer full of distortions…as she did in NH.
I’m looking for Clinton fatigue to set in, and that she gets whipped in every contest.
I’m feeling a bit nervous.
As an aside, at TPM they have an image of a direct mail piece that Hillary sent out in Wisconsin hitting Obama on the Present votes in the Illinois legislature.
This looks like the same piece of direct mail she sent out in Missouri and I remember being completely unimpressed with it. Direct mail needs to have a clear message that people see before they toss it in the trash. Take a look at it. It is just covered with print. Whoever she’s using to design this crap, I would fire them and get somebody else.
Isn’t it the same mailer that she sent out in New Hampshire that now has large swaths of women in NH pissed at her for lying?
Could be. I never saw the NH mailer. But when it arrived I looked closely at it because I knew there had been a New Hampshire mailer. That’s when I realized it was horribly designed.
Of course I also remember thinking that Hillary didn’t have a clue about Missouri demographics. There is a huge constitutuency of Democrats in Missouri who are pro-life and another huge constitutuency who are pro choice but would never dream of admiting it for fear of excommunication. So direct mail about choice is never a winner in Missouri.
Given that environment we do, however, understand how ‘present’ votes on issues regarding choice could be a viable strategy.
Al Giordano over at The Field points to some early exit polls released by CBS online and did a little math:
Of course the post is named Caveat Emptor, but…
Whoa…that was pretty interesting and some of my thoughts were confirmed. People are voting for Clinton just because she’s a woman and because she’s white. I’ve been reading these Clinton-supporting white women all over the internet and they all say the same thing, “People would rather vote for a black man than a woman.” I never see Obama supporters mention that they prefer a black man over a woman, so I always wondered where it came from. After a while, I just figured it was their inherent racism and the more they talked, the more it came out. I mean anyone who can willingly believe that the word “periodically” is sexist, yet pretends that they don’t see racism in 5 weeks worth of comments, clearly has other issues they need to deal with.
Maybe it’s a secret desire kind of thing: They envy Obama because they’re attracted to him. Black guys do have a reputation, you know. 😉
I kid, I kid.
…do NOT get me started!
OK, a little bit: When I hear this type of thing, I don’t hear It’s time for a woman, I hear I can’t believe you’d vote for a Black man over a White woman. That’s what I felt when I read Steinem’s hit piece (there’s another article in the Globe that talked about the “Catch 22” of Clinton’s run and I don’t even know why I bothered). It was just a slap in the face.
But what REALLY floors me is how Hillary Clinton, who is the de facto incumbent because of her husband, somehow makes a feminist statement.
Lying about his efforts to protect choice in Illinois–is THAT a feminist statement??
Signing off on a war in Iraq so she can look “tough”–is THAT a feminist statement?
Oh Lord, I’m too sick to go on. I have an upper respiratory infection that I caught before it became bronchitis. Ew. Not fun. Let me just crawl into bed. I may follow the thread by CrackBerry.
Yup.
Two words : Gloria Steinem.
That Op/Ed still stings for being the example of exactly that.
Well, I heard at TalkLeft that Clinton expects to lose by 20 because what with all the students in Madison Obama has a big support group with all the plagarists there.
(a little joke)
Apparently there’s a lunar eclipse tonight. I hope it’s a sign of Hillary’s campaign in eclipse. 😉
Mary are you sure? I thought it was tomorrow night between 7:00 and 8:00 pm.
You’re right. Blame Orange. Somebody had a diary up about it and he’s wrong – it’s tomorrow.
Cheap symbolism anyway.
How’s your household doing? Recovering?
Yep we’re almost all feeling better. Thanks.
I read somewhere they might shoot down the satellite tomorrow or Thursday. I kept hoping we’d get an eclipse with a little light show, but they said it would be over the pacific so we won’t be able to see anything. Oh well. 🙂
I was hoping they’d shoot it down over New York — just for some excitement 😉
(Kidding of course. Love all the New Yorkers here. Really.)
(Kidding of course. Love all the New Yorkers here. Really.)
Yep, but St. Louis is really the best city isn’t it? 😉
Well, of course. heh
My nerves! I don’t know if they can take the regular abuse through the end of primary season 😉
I know!
I was so glad that I was busy today so I didn’t have to worry.
I was busy, too, but my big boss is a Hillary supporter and we’ve been having nonstop political smack-talking the past couple of weeks. O:–) It’s much better than doing it online. heh
My office neighbor (and the head of my department) is supporting Obama, as is one of the older partners I work with all the time. We spend every morning analyzing the race. I don’t know of any big Hillary supporters in our office.
We do have a superdelegate though. He’s playing it very close to the vest.
exit polls showing Obama won both men and women. Up big…leading as by CNN
those Hillary supporters are fanatical almost like a cult.
Hi Manny.
It is a long way off isn’t it?
Hi Family Man. I need to figure out which candle to light so St. McCain ends up humiliated in the general election, resigning his Senate seat in utter defeat.
When you find that candle let me know. I want to light one too.
Wouldn’t that entail burning it at both ends? I’ve always heard you couldn’t do that.
Well you can, but not for long periods of time. :O
You Mexicans know nothing about black magic! You have to leave it all the brujo work to Puerto RIcans, don’t you … All you have to do is get a SIETE POTENCIAS candle and pray to Elegua, the trickster and troublemaker. He’ll fuck up St. McCains road to the White House if you just spray a little rum on him and light him a candle 😉
you underestimate the Apache blood that runs in these veins!
(laughing hard at your comment)
CNN calls it for McCain in Wisconsin.
MSNBC is indicating that exit polls are overwhelmingly in favor of Obama. The polls have been closed for a full two minutes now and they can’t call it yet??? sheesh!
CNN just said basically the same thing. Exit polls show him with a lead.
sigh.
The early, incomplete exit polls I saw were weird. They appeared to have almost no blacks, Hispanics or senior citizens in them voting Democratic. I suspect that they don’t trust them for a projection until some of the actual returns show the trend. So they are saying it’s “too early” to call.
McCain is giving his victory speech. Woo. and also Hoo.
I went to a luncheon yesterday — lots of little old lady Democrats. I felt very young. The speaker was Paul Glastris, the editor of the Washington Monthly and he was talking about being a political speechwriter.
Someone asked him to analyze McCain’s speaking style. He was … polite.
McCain reminds of that authority figure in school who’s Telling You Stuff For Your Own Good, but really has no idea what he’s saying and isn’t saying anything relevant to your life.
yep, like a crabby grandpa. “In my day, young lady …”
“Hey kid! GET OFF OF MY LAWN!”
I joined a new gym in a fairly wealthy neighborhood and since I go during the day when the young folks are at work, I’m the only woman there under the age of 60. I am an absolute goddess in the locker room.
Well .. of course 😉
Aphrodite the goddess of love and beauty.
I go to the Y and I go to the Easy Does It Class and most of the time I’m the youngest person there by 31 years. The only downfall is that they all have decided that they’re my mom. I seriously get chided for not wearing a jacket.
His wife – TOO much Botox.
“I will make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change” – St. McCain in a direct barb at Obama. BLECH! Perhaps Senator Crypt Keeper is an appropriate nickname, after all.
What are the odds he dies peacefully in his sleep of old age during the campaign season. 10-1 against?
hi notBostonnotJoe, those odds look accurate to me. his mother is out on the campaign trail with him…
McCain is wearing his Fundie Costume today – lots of apocalyptic language regarding the scaaaaaary terrorists wielding weapons of mass distruction
he repeated it because he lost his place when they applauded lol!
Why do Republicans have problems reading teleprompters?
Delete the word “teleprompters” from your question. Now look at it. Are you still puzzled?
lol!
McCain generates such excitement. Just look at this reaction:
I’ve hear McCain is doing well in the “Melancholy Dog” demographic.
Exit polling at my house seemed to confirm that..
those eyes and ears – i know all too well how effective they are at commanding obedience by their human servants.
I’m never good enough, Manny. Always a disappointment to Esperanza.
nah, she just knows how to lay the guilt trip on thick as all bassets lurve to do.
Does she still like the toilet paper roll or has she outgrown that phase?
She’s moved on from toilet paper to every single other thing in the house. Unlaundered underpants seem to be a favorite, and she likes to drop them in the middle of the living room when company is over.
Is it just me, or do all the republican wives look medicated?
They are, aren’t they?
The Botox Queen, trying to start some shit with Michelle Obama. Does she want to go there?
Stepford wives.
MSNBC has Obama at 61%, but it’s way early in the count.
They’re projecting him the winner with less than 1% reporting. He did good.
My little girl just ran to me, “Winner! Barack Obama’s the winner mama!”.
not the youngest but the most experienced.
Gosh the crowd loved that. They really hate Hillary don’t they?
MSNBuchananC calls Wisconsin for Obama!
Damn. You youngsters are fast on your keyboards and such.
i may be a student of nonviolence, but don’t mess with me in an old west gunfight 🙂
i enjoyed the fact that they interrupted the Pander Bear’s doom and gloom blathering.
I just barely saw it. Mrs. BostonJoe has kicked me out of election-central. Banished to the Internets for news. But she clicked over for a minute. Dear soul.
So, I’m not getting any info. What will the Clinton spin be tonight. Didn’t matter. Basically a draw. She’s still inevitable. This is going to the convention floor. God. He splits Super Tuesday. And runs the table since then. What will it take for her to do what is best for all of us, and not just her. I swear, she would rather see President McCain than President Obama.
I seem to recall an old Reagan bromide. Something about the golden rule. Don’t attack your own. The negativity from her just stinks.
wooohoo!
Nothing from CNN yet.
CNN has just projected an Obama win.
MSNBC Calls it for Obama at 9:18 a.m.
saw that but CNN has it close!!!?
Breaking News banner at CNN.Com now
Somber scene at the Clinton campaign event.
He pulled it off. Good. svp. Pass me a glass of wine.
McCain victory speech aimed at Obama on his “inexperience’ the commander-in-chief and terror thingys, forgets that he wants us to be in Iraq for 100 yrs.
61% of Americans want out. We’ve lived in fear for 7 years that’s why hope is resonating.
Seems like the “lunch bucket dems” jumped the Clinton ship.
It’s almost anticlimactic.
Come on, we still have South Dakota. Obama hasn’t sewed up the entire region. Yet.
oh yeah. I forgot about South Dakota. When is their .. whatever. Primary or caucus?
SD has a primary on June 3rd, 1st to last in the process.
Hawai’i is lunch time over?
as the candidate says “Your moment is Now”
What about the “tupperware in paper bag” Dems? Has there been a breakdown? And how come MSM always ignores the “Arby’s special” Dems?
“Cup-a-soup from the vending machine” Dems.
Not such a mood of rejoicing at the Hillary event …
Latest Clinton camp excuse “We never really had a shot here because of all the Independents.”
So it’s not just blacks, the rich, the lunch-bucket crowd, the educated, red-staters, but now also independents.
Who’s left? Some women I guess, but Obama took those in Wisconsin too.
Too bad they decided to go with the Muslim smears, they could have had that group.
Hillary is speaking from a rally in Ohio – lets see if she continues her classy shtick of not congratulating Obama on victories.
so far she hasn’t disappointed on that front.
a must see the Clinton new videos “Yes We Will” and “I’ve worked night shifts”
HIllary is coming out to announce that Wisconsin is now an insignificant state.
Or she won’t talk about Wisconsin at all, and her operatives will demean the state tomorrow.
she makes a habit of not congratulating Obama
Yeah. They don’t matter to Democrats… Bulshit. They’re crucial to Democrats in November.
Hillary looks defeated.
This group doesn’t quite get the applause lines from Clinton. But this speech is even lamer hearing it than reading it today.
Are you shitting me?
She just lifted Obama’s speech. The story of the mom sending in the check. The story of the Republican. Come on!
I was just thinking that the crowd was missing it’s applause cue.
She’s got to call them something clever…like Clintublicans
Clintocons?
That sounds like a robotic sex toy
She’s gonna get cut off for Obama to speak!
Whoa, Obama approaches the podium and Hill is still speaking…
heh, MSNBuchananC is getting ready to interrupt Hillary for Obama’s speech
CNN too
I hope he thanks Wisconsin for being so significant 🙂
should I start a new thread in the diaries? I think Drinking Liberally is underway in Philly…
I’d follow you anywhere.
good idea
Aw, to be that six year old girl that he thanks….
BooMan is back: linkage here