I think we have finally reached the point where we can begin to talk about a presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain. In this piece I want to focus on a strategy for John McCain.
As McCain looks around, he has to take note of some daunting obstacles.
1. Head-to-head polling favors Obama.
2. Polling shows a generic preference for Democrats in both the congressional and the presidential races.
3. Public attitudes on government and social issues are trending to the left.
4. Party registration and self-identification highly favors the Democrats.
5. Differential turnout has massively favored the Democrats in both primaries and caucuses.
And that is just for starters. Americans (61%) want U.S. troops out of Iraq within a year. McCain compares unfavorably with Obama on the stump and in any beauty contest. McCain is shorter. And McCain is much, much older and cannot hope to match Obama’s energy. On top of this, McCain’s greatest strength (experience) just fell flat when Hillary Clinton attempted to use it in her campaign. Finally, McCain is deeply unpopular with the Republican base, while Obama will enjoy an uncommon unity (provided Clinton drops out soon, and graciously).
A McCain-Obama matchup looks like a recipe for a 40-plus state Democratic victory with deep, deep congressional coattails that could bring in a Democratic ruling majority so large that it could rule for decades (no, I am not exaggerating). So, what can McCain do to stop or minimize the carnage?
First, he needs to take an honest look at the landscape and recognize that the Republican coalition is dead and that he cannot compete with Obama by pushing a Reaganite set of policies. McCain’s political hero is Teddy Roosevelt, and McCain should emulate Roosevelt as closely as possible in formulating his general election strategy. That requires that McCain abandon any pretense of representing the base of the GOP and start pushing a progressive platform of reform. McCain should talk about balancing the budget and ditch his pledges to not raise taxes. He should talk about tackling big business interests in order to address global warming and promote a healthier environment. McCain should talk about our national parks and conservation. He should run hard against his own party and their intrusion into the Terri Schiavo case, people’s bedrooms, and their sanctimony. McCain should run a decisively non-Southern strategy.
This would be a start, but it won’t be enough on its own. McCain needs to get the maximum bang out of his vice-presidential selection. He needs to pick a woman (and hope that Obama does not) and he needs to pick a northerner who, hopefully, shares his enthusiasm for reform. No one fits that bill better than Governor Jodi Rell of Connecticut, although other possibilities include Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine and former New Jersey Governor Christie Todd Whitman.
One of Obama’s great intangibles is that almost no one, even his political opponents, wants to see him attacked. That is the same type of intangible Sen. Olympia Snowe brings to the table. Regardless of vice-presidential selection, McCain cannot succeed by tearing Obama down or swift-boating him. Any serious attempt to attack Obama personally will fail just as surely and swiftly as Bill Clinton’s antics in South Carolina. In fact, one major challenge for McCain is to keep the racists and xenophobes in the GOP in the closet.
I know this post is a little disjointed, but let me just summarize. McCain needs to push a new non-Southern agenda that pulls more from Teddy Roosevelt than from Ronald Reagan. He needs to try to pick up women voters by selecting a highly qualified, moderate woman as his vice-presidential nominee. He needs to take on big business (at least in an environmental sense). He can try to tie Obama to teacher’s unions, and he can talk about free market solutions on health care (tying costs to frivolous law suits) and keep some other pieces of the Bush playbook, but most of it should go in the trash-bin.
McCain’s job is not really to win this election, as that is almost impossible for him to accomplish. But he can leave a lasting legacy on his party and the nation, and minimize the downticket carnage, by running hard to win in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest suburbs, rather than trying to appeal to southern, exurban, and rural voters. He should probably rule out appointing judges that would overturn Roe, but that is asking too much, right?
Conservatives are giving McCain the opposite advice, naturally. They say that he needs to hew more closely to Reagan’s policies. They’re wrong. If McCain does that, it is quite possible that there will be almost no Republicans left north of the Mason-Dixon line. Obama and the Democrat’s strengths are just too enormous for the old Republican party to survive as anything more than a rump party. If McCain sticks with that old coalition, the GOP will be totally wiped out. But if McCain can limit the fallout and begin the GOP’s transition to a more moderate party that can compete in the demographics of a new America, then he will leave a legacy worthy of his effort.
