Added the links to websites of House members.

The Realigning Election: 71 House Seats ◊ by BooMan

I have identified 71 seats in the House of Representatives that are currently held by a Republican, but have a Democrat challenger who raised a significant amount of money in 2007. This is not a complete list of competitive seats because some recent retirements (in Louisiana, for example) were unexpected and no Democrat was planning a serious challenge last year.

Below the fold, I list the 71 seats (with their PVI’s), and the challengers. Some of these seats will have primaries. I only list multiple names if there are multiple candidates that have raised five figures worth of money. Some candidates may have dropped out despite raising a lot of money. Let me know and I’ll update the list.

What I’d actually like to figure out is which of these Democrats might turn out to be good Democrats and which are likely to wind up in jail or, worse, in the Joe Lieberman Hall of Shame. Wanna give me a hand?  


1. District 02 (PVI R+13)

Incumbent: Terry Everett (retiring)
Republican Primary: Jay Love, etc.
Democrat: Bobby Bright


2. At-Large (PVI R+14)

Incumbent: Don Young
Primary challenger: Gabrielle Ledoux
Democrats: Ethan Berkowitz, Diane Benson, Jake Metcalfe


3. District 01 (PVI R+2)

Incumbent: Rick Renzi (indicted on 35 counts today)
Democrats: Ann Fitzpatrick, Howard Shanker, Mary Kim Titla

4. District 03 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: John Shadegg (reneged on promise to retire today)
Democrat: Bob Lord


5. District 04 (PVI R+11)

Incumbent: John Doolittle (retiring)
Frontrunner: Eric Egland
Democrat: Charlie Brown

6. District 26 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: David Dreier
Democrat: Russ Warner

7. District 41 (PVI R+9)

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis
Democrat: Tim Prince

8. District 50 (PVI +5)

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray
Democrat: Nick Liebham

9. District 52 (PVI +9)

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (retiring)
Frontrunner: Duncan D. Hunter (son of incumbent)
Democrat: Mike Lumpkin


10. District 04 (PVI R+9)

Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave
Democrat: Betsy Markey


11. District 04 (PVI D+5)

Incumbent: Christopher Shays
Democrat: Jim Himes


12. At Large (PVI D+7)

Incumbent: Michael Castle
Democrat: Jerry Northington


13. District 08 (PVI R+3)

Incumbent: Ric Keller
Democrats: Michael James Smith, Charlie Stuart

14. Distict 09 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis
Democrat: John Dicks

15. District 13 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Vern Buchanan
Democrat: Christine Jennings

16. District 15 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Dave Weldon (retiring)
Republican primary: ???
Democrat: Steve Blythe

17. District 18 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Democrat: Annette Taddeo

18. District 21 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Democrat: Raul Martinez

19. District 24 (PVI R+3)

Incumbent: Tom Feeney
Democrat: Suzanne Kosmas

20. District 25 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart
Democrat: Joe Garcia


21. District 01 (PVI R+19)

Incumbent: William Sali
Democrat: Walt Minnick


22. District 06 (PVI R+3)

Incumbent: Peter Roskam
Democrat: Jill Morganthaler

23. District 10 (PVI D+4)

Incumbent: Mark Kirk
Democrat: Dan Seals

24. District 11 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Jerry Weller (retiring)
Republican: Tim Baldermann (dropped out)
Democrat: Debbie Halverson

 25. District 13 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Judy Biggert
Democrat: Scott Harper

26. District 14 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: none/Dennis Hastert resigned
Republican: Jim Oberweis
Democrat: Bill Foster

27. District 16 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Dan Manzullo
Democrat: Robert Abboub


28. District 03 (PVI R+16)

Incumbent: Mark Souder
Democrat: Mike Montagano

29. District 04 (PVI R+17)

Incumbent: Steve Buyer
Democrat: Nels Ackerson


30. District 04 (PVI D+0)

Incumbent: Tom Latham
Democrat: Selden Spencer   info
No website!

31. District 05 (PVI R+8)

Incumbent: Steven King
Democrat: Rob Hubler


32. District 01 (PVI R+10)

Incumbent: Wayne Gilchrest (defeated in primary)
Republican: Andy Harris
Democrat: Frank Kratovil Jr.

33. District 06 (PVI R+13)

Incumbent: Roscoe Bartlett
Democrat: Jennifer Dougherty


34. District 07 (PVI R+2)

Incumbent: Tim Walberg
Democrats: Mark Schauer, Dave Nacht info

35. District 09 (PVI R+0)

Incumbent: Joe Knollenberg
Democrat: Gary Peters


36. District 03 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Jim Ramstad (retiring)
Republican: Erik Paulsen
Democrats: Terri Bonoff, Ashwin Madia

37. District 06 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Michelle Bachmann
Democrat: Elwyn Tinklenberg info


38. District 06 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Sam Graves
Democrat: Kay Barnes


39. District 03 (PVI D+1)

Incumbent: John Porter
Democrats: Robert Daskas, Andrew Martin

New Jersey

40. District 03 (PVI D+3)

Incumbent: Jim Saxton (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: John Adler

41. District 04 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Chris Smith
Democrat: Josh Zeitz

42. District 05 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Scott Garrett
Democrat: Dennis Shulman

43. District 07 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Mike Ferguson (retiring)
Republican: Kate Whitman (daughter of Christie Todd Whitman)
Democrat: Linda Stender  

New Mexico

44. District 01 (PVI D+2)

Incumbent: Heather Wilson (running for Senate)
Republican: Darren White
Democrat: Martin Heinrich

45. District 02 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: Steve Pearce (running for Senate)
Republicans: Ed Tinsley, Aubrey Dunn
Democrats: Harry Teague, Bill McCamley

New York

46. District 13 (PVI D+1)

Incumbent: Vito Fossella
Democrats: Steve Harrison, Domenic Recchia info

47. District 23 (PVI R+0)

Incumbent: John McHugh
Democrat: Michael Oot info

48. District 25 (PVI D+3)

Incumbent: Jim Walsh (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: Dan Maffei

49. District 26 (PVI R+3)

Incumbent: Tom Reynolds
Democrat: Jon Powers, Alice Kryzan

50. District 29 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Randy Kuhl
Democrat: Eric Massa

North Carolina

51. District 08 (PVI R+3)

Incumbent: Robin Hayes
Democrat: Larry Kissell


52. District 01 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Steve Chabot
Democrat: Steve Driehaus

53. District 02 (PVI R+13)

Incumbent: ‘Mean’ Jean Schmidt
Primary challenger: Tom Brinkman
Democrats: Victoria Wulsin, Steve Black

54. District 07 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: Dave Hobson (retiring)
Republican: Steve Austria
Democrats: Steve Woolover, William Conner

55. District 14 (PVI R+2)

Incumbent: Steve LaTourette
Democrat: William O’Neill

56. District 15 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Deborah Pryce (retiring)
Republican: Steve Stivers
Democrat: Mary Jo Kilroy

57. District 16 (PVI R+4)

Incumbent: Ralph Regula (retiring)
Republican: Kirk Schuring
Democrat: John Boccieri


58. District 03 (PVI R+2)

Incumbent: Phil English
Democrats: Kathy Dahlkemper, Mike Waltner, Tom Myers, Kyle Foust

59. District 05 (PVI R+10)

Incumbent: John Peterson (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: ???

60. District 06 (PVI D+2)

Incumbent: Jim Gerlach
Democrat: Bob Raggio

61. District 18 (PVI R+2)

Incumbent: Tim Murphy
Democrats: Steve O’Donnell, Beth Hafer


62. District 07 (PVI R+16)

Incumbent: John Culberson
Democrat: Michael Skelly

63. District 10 (PVI R+13)

Incumbent: Michael McCaul
Democrat: Larry Joe Doherty, Dan Grant


64. District 02 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: Thelma Drake
Democrat: Glenn Nye

65. District 05 (PVI R+6)

Incumbent: Virgil Goode
Democrat: Tom Perriello

66. District 06 (PVI R+11)

Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte
Democrat: Sam Rasoul

67. District 10 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Frank Wolf
Democrats: Judy Feder, Mike Turner

68. District 11 (PVI R+1)

Incumbent: Tom Davis (retiring)
Republican: Keith Fimian
Democrats: Leslie Byrne, Doug Denneny


69. District 08 (PVI D+2)

Incumbent: Dave Reichert
Democrat: Darcy Burner

West Virginia

70. District 02 (PVI R+5)

Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito
Democrat: Anne Barth


71. At Large (PVI R+19)

Incumbent: Barbara Cubin (retiring)
Democrat: Gary Trauner  

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

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