In South Carolina Barack Obama won among registered Democrats 57%-28%-14%. In Virginia, he won among registered Democrats 62%-38%. In Maryland he won among registered Democrats 59%-40%. In Wisconsin, he won the vote among registered Democrats 53%-46%. In spite of this, I spent a good part of my day explaining to Clinton supporters (in email) that Barack Obama is not winning the nomination on the backs of Republican voters who won’t show up for him in the fall.
It’s a ludicrous assertion. Barack Obama has just won ten of eleven contents by 20-plus points. The lone exception (Wisconsin) he won by 17 points. But even going back to Iowa, Obama beat Clinton 32%-31% among registered Democrats. It’s true that Obama is killing Clinton among registered Republicans and Independents, but he isn’t relying on them for his victories. If he’s relying on any demographic groups, it blacks, men, and voters under the age of twenty-nine. For example, Obama took the under 29 vote in Iowa by a 57%-11% margin. In Wisconsin it was 70%-26%. Not only is Obama doing extremely well with the youth vote, he is inspiring them to massively increase their percentage of the overall electorate.
It’s amusing to think that Clinton supporters could work themselves up over a pissant organization like Republicans for Obama, who brag about having 1,000 members worldwide. Republicans for Obama want (don’t be shocked) Republicans to vote and caucus for Barack Obama in the upcoming Texas contests. One of their primary motivations (again, don’t be shocked) is to defeat Hillary Clinton, who they do not particularly like. Republicans for Obama make a naked appeal to Texan Republicans to come out and vote for Obama even if they have no intention of voting for him in the fall.
Do you know how many Republicans are actually going to do that compared to how many Republicans are going to come out to vote because they actually support one of the Democrats? How many of you know Republicans that are intrigued by Obama and may (or already have) vote for him? How many of you know someone that went to the polls to vote for someone they don’t like or won’t support in November? What do you think the percentage difference is?
Moreover, Republicans that are actually interested in sabotaging the Democratic nominee are extremely unlikely to vote for the candidate that has lower negatives and is getting the most independent and Republican votes. Why? Cuz that would not make sense.
I didn’t really want to have to spell this out. I am fairly certain that writing this down just cost me several IQ points. I hope reading it hasn’t caused you any drain bamage.
P.S. Voters that vote in primaries are by definition highly motivated voters. Voters that vote for a candidate in a primary are highly unlikely to vote for someone else in the general (unless their original choice has been eliminated), or to fail to show up to vote. That’s not really rocket science.