I think John McCain has insurmountable problems in winning the general election. I could list them, but I’d rather discuss them as I discuss various veepee strategies. I really believe that he must make a big splash with his selection of a running mate because he is just not going to be able to compete on his own.
It has been well observed that McCain has problems with the Republican base. One school of thought is that he needs to shore up his base somehow, and he could do that by selecting someone that is respected by the anti-immigration crowd and/or the Christian coalition crowd. Most of the leading figures within those constituencies are marginal personalities that would hurt McCain’s chances (think Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Rick Santorum, or John Cornyn, e.g.). Even former leaders like Newt Gingrich or Bill Frist are too tarnished and divisive to be a help. If McCain wants to shore up his base he should probably pick between Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Haley Barbour of Mississippi. But I don’t see that helping McCain at all in winning over moderate Republicans, independents, and Reagan Democrats in places like New Hampshire, or suburban Philadelphia.
I don’t think McCain can win by trying to shore up the Republican base. He needs to send a message that the Republican party is moving in a new direction. He’s already hamstrung by his fealty to Bush’s surge policy and most of his economic program. Picking a running mate that fits into the typical Republican mold will not send the right message. If I were advising McCain, I’d tell him to look in two places.
McCain could cause some excitement by picking a woman. If he wants to be somewhat conventional he can pick Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas. But he’d probably get more bang for his buck by picking a pro-choice blue state moderate. His two best choices there are former New Jersey Governor and head of the EPA Christie Todd Whitman and Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine.
Sen. Snowe is probably the best choice he can make among current or former politicians. Snowe has a natural style and elegance, and she is well respected by nearly everyone. She would even put her homestate in play and help Susan Collins reelection effort against Rep. Tom Allen.
McCain’s other good option is to look for a totally unconventional choice from outside politics. He can pick someone from the military or he can look to the world of business. Someone with a compelling life story would help.
I’ve heard a few other names bandied about, like Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota. These types of picks just won’t get it done. And, if McCain picks Joe Lieberman he’s obviously not serious about winning.
