I think John McCain has insurmountable problems in winning the general election. I could list them, but I’d rather discuss them as I discuss various veepee strategies. I really believe that he must make a big splash with his selection of a running mate because he is just not going to be able to compete on his own.
It has been well observed that McCain has problems with the Republican base. One school of thought is that he needs to shore up his base somehow, and he could do that by selecting someone that is respected by the anti-immigration crowd and/or the Christian coalition crowd. Most of the leading figures within those constituencies are marginal personalities that would hurt McCain’s chances (think Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Rick Santorum, or John Cornyn, e.g.). Even former leaders like Newt Gingrich or Bill Frist are too tarnished and divisive to be a help. If McCain wants to shore up his base he should probably pick between Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Haley Barbour of Mississippi. But I don’t see that helping McCain at all in winning over moderate Republicans, independents, and Reagan Democrats in places like New Hampshire, or suburban Philadelphia.
I don’t think McCain can win by trying to shore up the Republican base. He needs to send a message that the Republican party is moving in a new direction. He’s already hamstrung by his fealty to Bush’s surge policy and most of his economic program. Picking a running mate that fits into the typical Republican mold will not send the right message. If I were advising McCain, I’d tell him to look in two places.
McCain could cause some excitement by picking a woman. If he wants to be somewhat conventional he can pick Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas. But he’d probably get more bang for his buck by picking a pro-choice blue state moderate. His two best choices there are former New Jersey Governor and head of the EPA Christie Todd Whitman and Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine.
Sen. Snowe is probably the best choice he can make among current or former politicians. Snowe has a natural style and elegance, and she is well respected by nearly everyone. She would even put her homestate in play and help Susan Collins reelection effort against Rep. Tom Allen.
McCain’s other good option is to look for a totally unconventional choice from outside politics. He can pick someone from the military or he can look to the world of business. Someone with a compelling life story would help.
I’ve heard a few other names bandied about, like Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota. These types of picks just won’t get it done. And, if McCain picks Joe Lieberman he’s obviously not serious about winning.
McCain/Petreus
Petraeus wouldn’t accept. It would probably hurt his future political career to be tarred with the McCain brush.
Petraeus would have to resign.
You expect them to follow the rules?
If you’re right, and they go for a big splash, I would guess it will be military. Who else fits?
Jesus. You may well be right. Military personnel are given the “untouchable” status Barack has only come close to by being classy.
Like Musharraf.
I think it’s imperative that McCain picks a politician that the wingnut base will be okay with. If they sit on their hands and don’t come out and vote, the race is going to be a ridiculously massive blowout. Kay Bailey Hutchinson may do the trick; Christie Whitman and Olympia Snowe certainly would not.
The easy road would be to select Huckabee, but then the whole ticket will just piss off economic conservatives to no end.
I disagree. If McCain tries to win a base election he’s already lost. If Clinton drops out messily that could change, but right now the Dems’ base is fired up and will remain so.
The Republicans can only win by winning the battle for the independents, and McCain cannot beat Obama straight up for that vote.
Put it another way. Assuming Obama doesn’t pick a woman, how many women will vote for a McCain/Snowe or McCain/Whitman ticket?
Answer: a whole lot. And a lot of moderate northern Republicans will feel good about that ticket as well.
But McCain/Barbour? Pleeze.
I disagree with your disagreement (double-negative?) – the GOP base is pretty iffy on McCain, and if he picks a VP that isn’t a tried-and-true conservative then the base walks. Literally. I count many of these people as friends and I’m telling you that they’re waiting for an excuse to vote for Obama. If McCain picks a moderate then he’ll lose every state in the Union except (maybe) Utah.
I believe Huckabee would be the best help for McCain – I don’t believe McCain has a prayer against Obama, but Huckabee’s skills in campaigning and debating would help McCain make the loss respectable. Barring that I could see some rock-solid fiscal conservative coming to the fore, someone like Forbes. What would be even more interesting (although it would never happen and he’d never accept if asked) would be for McCain to tell George Will to put up or shut up, put some flesh in the game instead of just writing about it.
Ultimately, I don’t think it matters who McCain picks – Obama is going to crush him – but I know with certainty that if he picks a moderate then McCain will make Mondale and McGovern’s races look competitive.
what states are you talking about?
If McCain is going to win he is going to need to win in places like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire. McCain is most popular in these types of swing states, not in the south. But he has to hope to win the south without pandering to it. If he can’t, nothing could have helped him win.
He needs to get back the suburbs of Philly, Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, DC. If he can’t he’s finished.
How does a Barbour do that more efficiently than a Snowe?
I don’t see it.
He can get competitive in those suburbs, but the price for getting that competitive will be his base – he doesn’t have his base locked down. The only hope for him locking down his base – short of 9/11 redux – is a solid conservative as his VP. If he chooses a moderate then he loses the south and a good chunk of the west.
McCain’s already signaled that he’ll be running essentially as a continuation of Bush’s policies – he’s taken issue with none of them – so I think the moderate gambit is already off of the table. Personally, I hope he nominates a moderate – someone like Whitman would be perfect – because you’ll see Obama’s numbers move quickly into the 60s.
In a real sense, McCain is to the GOP what Clinton is to the Democrats – votes overwhelmingly with the caucus but the consistent willingness to poke the eye of the base has made them persona non grata with their respective bases. They have to pander if they want their base to come along, and that pandering will cost them the swing votes. If they don’t pander then they have no base and without the base you lose – just ask Poppy Bush.
But you are just ignoring my point. McCain can never beat Obama in a base election. It’s the same problem Kerry had in reverse. Why do you think Kerry’s first choice for VP was McCain? Because he would have overwhelmed Bush’s base, even though his own base would have been pissed.
McCain could reunite his base all the way up to where Bush had it in 2004 and he’d still be swamped by Dem turnout. Black turnout alone would beat him.
He cannot win that way. He has to think outside the box/base.
The Republican base is whittled down anyway. If he goes with a base election strategy he may not break 40%. But if he can win the suburbs he will do two things. First, he’ll prevent a total realignment election in the House and he’ll be able to compensate for crazy urban turnout. It’s his only chance. If it costs him the south, then there was no way he could win. But if he holds th south and wins the suburbs he’ll be in the ballpark.
If he picks a southern conservative he may lose the suburbs and the exurbs, and we’ll see 70 seats move in the House.
I know they can’t be that stupid.
I wasn’t ignoring the point – at least not intentionally – it’s just that I believe that McCain has to have some semblance of a base of support in order to win. The problem, from my perspective, is that I can conceive of no formula for McCain winning – if he goes after swing voters he’ll lose his tepid support among the GOP base, and if he does what is necessary for him to secure the GOP base then he’ll lose the swing voters. I don’t see anything that he can do that would hold the GOP base while simultaneously enabling him to pursue the swing voters, and I believe that would have been a problem for all of the GOP contenders (Huckabee’s problems with the fiscal & foreign policy conservatives, Rudy’s problems with the social conservatives, Romney’s problem with all of the conservatives).
Do you think McCain can win enough swing voters to replace those that he’d lose from the GOP base sitting on its hands? Has anyone ever won with that strategy besides Bill Clinton in ’96 (and even then the Democratic base was engaged, even though Clinton essentially campaigned against the Democratic base)? Honest question, I really don’t know.
Hey Boo- at the rate that mccain is alienating his supporters, it won’t make a difference who he picks. How about the latest- Hagee support. The man is a effing nut. He is being ripped already and it is just coming out!
Now, if only the dems can hold their fire and sit back and watch.
Yeah but at least McCain won’t be dogged for not loving Israel enough because Hagee’s a big time supporter of Israel’s right wing likudniks (for his own twisted Armageddon reasons of course).
Can someone explain to me how that LA Times survey earlier this week put McCain as a winner over both Dems? I need a reality check. Maybe the crack I’m smoking has been cut with something bad.
Hypothetical races aren’t particularly meaningful because they aren’t an ‘actual’ choice. Once people start considering their choice as real, their attitudes often change.
Also, one main effect at this point is the feuding between the Clinton and Obama camps, which makes the third choice look attractive. Once this becomes an ‘either or’ choice the dynamics change.
Another factor is the strength of support, which drives turnout and wins elections. Polls show you a static slice of a population whose parameters are well known, but they can be poor predictors of what people will actually do.
What the poll does do is show you people’s leanings, but actions and words often diverge. Another way of putting this is that polls only measure what people are willing to say to a pollster. People gauge their responses to comport with social mores, and will adjust their answers to fit with social expectations. For instance, same sex pairs of questioner/repondents are more open, and more people claim to have voted for the winning candidate after an election than actually did.
Calling people in their homes and asking them who they’d vote for is one thing – actually getting out to vote is another and the Dems are far more motivated to vote than Repubs are.
this is part of a comment I posted at the end of the last thread, since this thread seems to focus solely on McCain I’ll post it here again:
As for McCain, I think he might surprise us all and pick someone who’s not on everyone’s list. He will want to avoid a 2 white men or 2 old people ticket which would exclude almost everyone currently talked about, including Kay Bailey Hutchison.
So, it will come down to a younger person (preferrably below 60), a woman or minority. There aren’t that many who fit the bill in the Republican party but among them are: Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska (there’s even a draft blog out there which has posted a very recent wapo video interview with her discussing VP), former Rep. J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL), or a current Congresswoman like Rep. Mary Fallin (OK) or Rep. Marsha Blackburn (TN).
So:
McCain/Palin
McCain/Watts
McCain/Diaz-Balart
McCain/Fallin
McCain/Blackburn
Additionally, I think McCain will be damned if he doesn’t choose someone more conservative than himself, so that would also exclude Todd Whitman and Snowe.
McCain will not pick a moderate. I’m willing to bet a case of coke (the liquid variety) on it.
McCain is tied to Bush at the hip, Bush’s big donors have been handed over.
Look for McCain to ask Cheney to select his VP. And that will be the end of that..all forces will unite. against that black candidate, the foreigner. So much for religion.
But I wouldn’tt be in a hurry to pick McCain’s VP….you’ll know soon enough. Just recall, since early summer I wrote within these pages that HRC campaign would implode and if by a fluke she gets the nomination, she will not win.
March 4 needs to be definitive.
You know, that thought crossed my mind. He has shot someone in the face so he’s qualified. His qualifications would actually match the last guy’s.
At least one wingnut thinks the “fourth branch” should continue to be held in the iron grip of the man who has been strangling our democracy for the last eight years. That’s right four more years of Darth Cheney!
Yes, he should totally do this. It would salvage Utah, giving him one state.
Come on now. Cheney gives McCain Wyoming too, doesn’t he?
I was being snarky, but you’re probably right. In fact he would probably win two or three more states, Idaho being one of them, but that’s about it.
Somehow I’m not sure I can see him choose Mr. 15% Approval Rating, though. There’s starting the race with your shoes tied, and then there’s starting out the race with your shoes tied and carrying an anvil.
Cheney’s ability to travel may be a wee bit compromised at this point eh? How many countries are trying to nab him?
I know “Kumbayah” because I went to Sunday School every week as a kid. Explain how conservative Christians exist?
Sorry. I forgot that reality makes no sense.
Huzzah for Dick Cheney for eternity!
Obama should pick Barbara Boxer.
McCain should pick a fiscal conservative to be named later.
Hillary should pick her nose…
My only concern is who Schumer and Emanuel would designate to replace her. It wouldn’t be a progressive candidate, that’s for certain.
So how long after Obama wins the White House do those two get replaced? They are definitely Establishment types, and the mood is currently not all that friendly toward Establishment types.
Hmmmm. Interesting thought. Someone like Schweitzer would be good too for those of us who live out here. I’m reminded of the days of the space program. There’s a reason mission control is located in Houston and rockets are launched from Canaveral; LBJ said he would support Kennedy’s space program, but his price was that the South had to benefit big time. Maybe if we got a Westerner in as VP we could get Washington to pay attention to us in a good way (one that doesn’t involve killing off millions of endangered salmon, for instance).
Man, I would love to see Barbara Boxer as VP. But you don’t want to lose a Senator for two years. Wouldn’t The Gropernator get to appoint the next Senator? We’ve already got one Republican Senator.
I suspect, though, that it would be someone closer to the center of the country.
Jack Cafferty just threw out Michael Bloomberg as someone’s running mate. Hmmmm
Not going to happen – Bloomberg doesn’t help McCain with conservative, he doesn’t help Obama with foreign policy, and he doesn’t help Hillary with likability. He makes for an interesting story, but at this juncture I can’t see him mattering much in the Veepstakes.
Nader? He’s already got Matt Gonzales.
Larry is a political scientist, and I would hope his opinion would mean something to people (political scientists always hope this, but they’re usually disappointed).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080228/cm_rcp/veep_veep_the_mccain_possibili;_ylt=AiI715
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Maine has a Democratic Governor, in the highly unlikely scenario that McCain wins with Snowe as the running mate, the Governor will appoint a Democrat to that seat. Possibly Allen.
There just isn’t much point to McCain’s playing to a base that is deeply splintered anyway. If he picks Huckabee, he may generate some excitement among the religious right, but he loses points with the fiscal conservatives — not to mention that there could hardly be a worse choice for the moderates he wants to attract.
McCain has to figure that the GOP hold on the deep red states is strong enough that it can tolerate some erosion. He has to reach out to moderates, and nobody does that better for him than Snowe.
The importance of Maine’s 4 electoral votes should not be dismissed either. Snowe is enormously popular in her home state. If McCain carries Maine, Obama carries Ohio, and the rest of the country splits like it did in 2004, McCain wins the election.
The states McCain has to compete for are Maine, NH, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. All went for Kerry, but by relatively narrow margins. McCain’s strength has been his ability to appeal to moderates. He should be building on that strength, not diluting it, in his choice of a Veep.