Asked whether they consider themselves Democrats or Republicans (or leaned one way or the other) the electorate said Democrat 44%-39% in 2000 and 47%-41% in 2004. Of course, that did not translate into electoral victory in either year. However, the number in 2007 was 50%-35%, and it may be growing. The fifteen-point spread is larger than at any time going back through 1990. So, it’s not all that surprising that the Democrats are enjoying higher voter registration everywhere from Vermont to Rhode Island to Connecticut to North Carolina to Oregon to Nevada.
The question is whether the Democrats can break the red/blue impasse and get a truly realigning election. It’s a little early but there are some indications that Obama can pull it off. Here are some red states where SurveyUSA has Obama beating McCain:
Missouri
New Mexico
Ohio
Virginia
Iowa
Hillary Clinton is also beating McCain in Missouri, New Mexico, and Ohio, but she is losing in blue states like Wisconsin and Oregon where Obama leads easily.
Assuming that Obama can hold Kerry’s blue states and carry those five red states, he has a 308-230 Electoral College advantage. That number grows to 317-221 if you include, for example, Colorado, where Rasmussen finds Obama (but not Hillary) outpacing McCain. Interestingly, Rasmussen currently gives the Democrats a 284-229 Electoral College advantage, with 25 points undecided. Here’s their breakdown.
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic: Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), and Washington (11).
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Missouri (11), and Nevada (5).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Virginia (13).
Likely Republican: Arkansas (6), North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
Clinton clearly has an advantage in Arkansas, but that seems to be the extent of her cross-over potential. Hillary is losing in the ‘likely Democratic’ state of Oregon and the ‘Leans Democratic’ state of Wisconsin. But Obama is ahead in those states and cuts into McCain’s base in Virginia and wins the ‘toss-up’ states of Colorado and Missouri.
When we look at the ‘safe Republican’ states, in the primaries/caucuses Obama has won or (is favored to win) all of them except Arizona, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Those are four states that will be tough to crack, but who knows? Obama should be competitive in the ‘Likely Republican’ state of North Carolina, where he is polling well ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Overall, Obama is showing much greater cross-over appeal, even though he is locked in a very tough battle for the nomination. What states do you think we can’t win, if any?
It’s a difficult call because this is going to be a realigning election. Turnout and counting the votes will be everything. Turnout in the South for Democrats will be phenomenal. Whether McCain restores enthusiasm to the Republicans or whether “ABC” or “ABABM” vote turns out is anyone’s guess.
I guess I’m saying that until it’s closer to the election every state is in play.
Utah however is hard to see going for Obama now that Romney has endorsed McCain.
I’m in Nevada and when I attended the Democratic County Convention recently, I was surprised to learn that the state now has 35,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. That is truly amazing. Nevada has long been a strongly Republican-dominated state. It’s all a-changing though. Don’t be surprised if Nevada is all blue this November because excitement among Democrats is so much higher than that of Republicans.
I would classify Iowa as solid purple (I lived there for 8 years); it’s pretty much split 50-50 Dem/Rep. And Obama is from Illinois, right next door, so geography plays some small role in his having a lead; residents of eastern Iowa get several Chicago stations.
New Mexico is really a purple state. If Kahli sees this, she could probably elaborate.
I don’t see how they list Washington as “likely Democratic” instead of “safely Democratic.” There’s no way we are going to go Republican in this election.
I can’t imagine any Democrat winning TN right now. I can see Obama winning TN in 2012 if he does well in his first term, but TN is never on the leading edge of any change, for good or for ill. The conservatism of TN transcends mere partisanship.
That, and we have a lot of bigots. Not that a white male Democrat could win here, either.
What if Obama gets a Gore endorsement?
Ben Smith, Politico notes:
Senator Rockefeller (D-WV) has endorsed Obama This will be useful given the controversial 3 am fear mongering ad that Clinton is running.
Here is the Obama Ad responding to Hillary’s:
It supberb. Watch It
A Gore endorsement would not help him here. Gore, if you recall, did not carry Tennessee. He’s not very popular here and really hasn’t been since he made the mistake of becoming entangled with the Clintons.
He can’t win the state of denial, home to Hillary’s campaign headquarters…
We can’t win Oklahoma, because if we did, then my vote would actually count for once in my life and that just can’t happen.
.
It’s time to throw out that old map with the red states and blue states. The map that implies that all but a handful of states will definitely vote Republican or Democratic and that the real contest will be decided in Florida or Ohio or whatever.
…
In these years, different groups of voters moved in different directions. Suburbanites in our largest metropolitan areas, repelled by the cultural stands of religious conservatives, trended heavily toward Democrats. Voters in rural areas in the South, Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, repelled by the cultural liberalism and environmental policies of the Clinton administration, trended heavily toward the Republicans.
In or around 1995, these alignments froze into place and pretty much stayed there for 10 years. Helping to freeze them were particular personal characteristics of the two dominant political figures of these times, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.
But now Bush is not on the ballot and Hillary Clinton’s flagging campaign has been sending her husband to places like Chillicothe, Ohio. John McCain does not have the Texas swagger and up-front religious commitment that turned many voters away from Bush and his party. Barack Obama does not seem to have the wobbly moral compass that turned many voters away from Clinton and his party.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."