The numbers from Cleveland and Cincinnati are not in yet, at all. Numbers out of Houston and Dallas are trickling in. Even the numbers out of Providence are just coming in. It’s impossible to say whether Obama can close the gap in Ohio until the big city numbers come in, but I think I can safely say that Obama will pull Texas out. As the night wears on, Obama’s numbers should start to improve in both Ohio and Texas, and even Rhode Island.
There is still the whole caucus aspect of the Texas contest, but I think we’re going to see a split in the popular vote, with Clinton taking Rhode Island and Ohio, and Obama taking Vermont and Texas.
On the delegate front, it should be a good night for Obama. Vermont and Rhode Island should cancel each other out, and he should get more delegates out of Texas than Clinton gets out of Ohio.
Who used to be Clinton’s press secretary said that delegates don’t count, what’s going to count is momentum coming out of tonight.
oh the spin she’s in …
I called it all earlier today. So far, all the spin from the Clinton campaign has been predicted and it’s kind of sad.
Yeah, two out of fifteen. That’s some kind of momentum. Only because of the lies and bullshit of the last eight years can someone stand up and say that delegates totals don’t count.
Why are you so confident about TX? Supposedly the Obama votes were going to come in earlier than the Clinton votes…
well, they haven’t.
Well, Austin is getting eaten up pretty quickly, as is Dallas. We’re pretty much left with Houston, bearing in mind that El Paso has apparently not reported much either.
Ohio called for Clinton.
Texas looks alright, given Houston, Dallas and Austin.
Agreed. She’s doing pretty well in the San Antonio area so far though.
I guess now she’ll give her speech declaring total victory. 😉
lol – via ambinder:
Agreed Booman. I can’t help but feel a little disappointed though…I was expecting more of a sweep.
Jesus, at this rate, she’ll be in the fight until June. /snark
Any idea of how the superdelegate announcement will play into either candidate’s camp? My initial thought is that since neither candidate will want to use the superdelegates to win a convention, this really doesn’t matter too much–despite Obama owning a majority.
I just got back from working my TX precinct. The turnout there was massive all day long and the caucus turnout was just as unreal as i predicted (60 ish percent went Obama and 30ish for clinton .too tired to remember the digits after… )
In the 7 years i’ve done this we’ve never had turnout like this.. especially for the caucuses. The MSM drove caucus participation this year as a third to half the voters coming in asked “what is it what is it.. do we get two votes???”
Of course we then set them right .. and amazingly most of them showed up at caucus time and elected delegates.
It was so heavy that at the end of the day we had the caucusers come in droves and they squeezed in around 6:45 even as voters were still voting. The atmosphere was beyond hectic for about 20 minutes there. TX precincts are so unused to the caucuses actually being heavily used that we don’t have effective methods of organization for that many people showing up (out of apprx 220 voters for our 3 tiny precincts around 60 – 80 ppl showed up to our church hosting the election)
I’m dead certain that there will be widespread allegations of raucous caucusers and claims of dirty tricks .. not because anyone is being dirty but because the precincts were so unusualyl packed ..
However, once our doors were closed everything went by rather relative smoothly (and we do have small precincts). We had a person there who had a flare for organization and a very loud brassy voice.
How the Clinton will come out announcing that she’s the “Comeback Kid” ignoring the fact that shew as up 20+ points in both TX and OH and those leads closed in the last few days.
and they’ve chastised the media enough over the last few days about being unfair, that everyone will probably be afraid to call them on it.
Hopefully the Obama surrogates will.
Well, I can wait. Unfortunately, I won’t have to.
My sister in Frisco reports that Obama is winning the counties of the Dallas Metroplex at 55-60% (~40% reporting).
Houston, Dallas and Austin voting results have only been counted in low numbers.Obama is winning them 60/40 and maybe even higher numbers.
He will come out of Texas with more delegates.
I just was watching Fox News and some reporter was smearing this judge for allowing some precincts to stay open later in Ohio because of an Obama lawyer request.
His comment was something like this “I asked the Clinton campaign if the districts were african american, they would not answer but just nodded yes.”
He then went on to quote HRC campaign staffers about Obama’s camp “cherry picking” these precincts.
Smears on Drudge Report and now Fox. Pathetic.
Hillary won Ohio with the total machine support of the popular Governor. Congrats to her, now would the media recongize that Obama has more delegates and can not lose unless of some shady crap at the Convention.
After telling us for two weeks even up to 2 hours ago, how the Clinton’s could never close the delegate gap, they’re now saying that the Clinton’s should stay in until PA or at least the May primaries.
Although when one of them said “the May Nielsens” by mistake, it was a bit of a giveaway.
bingo
Oh, that’s rich.
Right now on CNN, 3/4 of their “experts” are bashing Obama. This is why these shows make me sick. The Obama guy keeps talking about math but no one wants to talk in reality of the race. On to PENN!
Hillary takes the stage. Might be time for me to go do something more productive.
They’re chanting “Yes She Will,” the counterpoint to Obama’s “Yes We Can.”
lol!
No one has won the presidency without winning the ohio primary.
Well, that’s because usually the Ohio primary means nothing and the race is completely wrapped up.
Well, she keeps telling us that her campaign is history-making.
Hillary just said she won Michigan and Florida. Delusional.
The lead in Ohio will still close somewhat. Chuck Todd reported that all the Obama strongholds were still trickling in as of about an hour ago.
Texas also has the same problem. All the Obama strongholds are late reporting, and the caucuses should tilt to Obama by at least a reasonable (~10%) margin. In addition, the differences in delegate count should translate into a further delegate edge for Obama.
Whatever the eventual delegate totals, there won’t be much change, and that mathematical reality doesn’t seem to have entered into the Clinton campaign’s thinking yet. “Ethics abhors the useless acts” — as it’s been said, and there’s not going to be any justification for a continuing Clinton candidacy after a Pennsylvania. Taking it all the way to the convention is a possibility, but there’s going to be some serious fallout within the party if she continues on her current, somewhat slimy, path. The question of her motives is going to be the subject of hot debate in the coming weeks. Also, remember there’s going to be two upcoming contests — Wyoming & Mississippi. Expect some of the glow to come off.
About 12% now in Ohio.
I’m still thinking Clinton is going to get a +25 from Ohio. Can Obama beat that from Texas? Maybe. Rhode Island also looks to be favoring Clinton by +1 compared to Vermont favoring Obama.
So I’m calling it maybe a +5 for Clinton on the night? That’s not a good thing but I suppose it could be worse.
He really needs to retire Goolsbee. The NAFTA thing crushed him in Ohio.
I’m hearing on TV that she’s most likely going to come out of Ohio with about +7 delegates, so I’m not sure where you’re getting +25. Even so, if she only makes up five delegates, that’s nothin’, especially with Mississippi and Wyoming coming up.
Ohio 88 percent reporting
Clinton 55
Obama 43
Delegates (141 pledged, 21 super)
Clinton 54
Obama 29
A lead of +25.
That’s just a set of numbers. What are you seeing that the analysts at MSNBC aren’t seeing? Chuck Todd is still saying about a seven point gain in Ohio.
Are you differentiating between congressional districts with even numbers of delegates and those with odd?