Something to remember tonight:
With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it’s worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama’s lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama’s 161 — a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.
Now, let’s look more closely at those delegates. Al Giordano has been very successful in predicting delegate counts so far in this process. Here are his last predictions for today.
Texas: Obama +27
Ohio: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama +5
Giordano actually upgraded Clinton’s chances based on recent polls. Two days ago he was predicting that Obama would net three delegates out of Ohio even with a narrow loss in the popular vote.
Rather than make my own predictions, I predict that Giordano is not far off. Clinton could easily do worse in Ohio, but is unlikely to do much better. In fact, the icy weather in Ohio is going to be murder on her turnout models, as her base is both less motivated and more car bound. Clinton could also do worse in Rhode Island. I am not at all sure she is going to pull five delegates out of there.
Meanwhile, Texas has always been difficult for Clinton, delegate-wise. Giordano gives Obama 16 delegates from the primary portion of the vote and another 11 from the caucus portion. My guess is that he will get less from the primary and more from the caucus, but the 27 number seems conservatively realistic.
If Obama comes out of today’s voting with a net gain of 20 delegates, that should be the story. If the Clintons wish to go on to Pennsylvania, they can spin the popular vote (if they win it anywhere) as somehow important. It’s not. This is a race for delegates. If you want to know who had a better day, keep in mind that Clinton needs a net gain of 52 delegates just to stay where she is. She’s unlikely to get anywhere close to that.
Unfortunately, the Clintons have been successful in prepping the public for a far lower standard of success.
Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party’s presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Many members of the media openly confess that they have both a financial and human-interest incentive to see the race continue. We should keep in mind that the media’s bottom line has no relationship to what is best for the Democratic Party. Clinton would have to win 57% of the delegates (including today) to get even with Obama, but as Jonathan Chait notes:
The only way she could possibly do this would be to utterly destroy Obama’s reputation, make him a radioactive figure, like Al Sharpton. This also seems like an extreme longshot, though the Clinton campaign appears to be attempting to pull it off with its flurry of attacks.
We need to consider this from two perspectives. If Clinton stays on but fails to win the nomination, how much damage will she do to Obama’s chances against McCain by attempting to make him radioactive? On the other hand, if Clinton stays in and succeeds in winning the nomination, how many of Obama’s supporters will line up to work and vote for her after such a campaign?
It’s one thing to prefer Clinton to Obama. But you should be realistic. Her chances of winning the nomination are almost nil. But if she were to win it, her chances of uniting the party for a race against McCain are even worse.
The way I look at it is this: the next President of the United States will be either McCain or Obama. Clinton may be able to prevent Obama from winning, but she can’t win herself. She’s made sure of that. The question is what will she choose, and why? Honestly, I expect her to fling dirt at Obama all the way to the convention, then covertly (or perhaps even openly) support McCain if Obama wins the nomination. That’s the only hope the “Clinton Movement” has for survival.
Any member that has a human interest in keeping alive the Dem Primary campaign is a LIAR. They only have a Financial motive. It is their jobs at stake. Just a superficial examination will lead to the realization that the medias only concern is their bottom line.
The tragedy is that the Dems simply refuse to see this and they feed this ravenous beast on and on.
I will tell you Boo that the result of an extended campaign will have only one result. The new voter will walk away! AND THEY WON’T COME BACK!
Predictions? Hillary stays in until the convention. Regardless of what happens in the tonight’s primaries, regardless of Pennsylvania, regardless of the delegate count. Remember what her slogan was when she entered the race? I’m in it to win it. Not I’m in to help America. Not I’m in to restore the Democratic party. Not I’m in it for you. No, a simple declarative, focused on her own ambition statement of I’m in to win it.
I take her at her word. She will not go gently into that dark night.
I agree that she just won’t go away. But maybe if the delegate gap is big enough and the superdelegates swing heavily to Obama, then she will have as good as lost the war. Her money will dry up, her more reality-connected supporters will come out of the jungle and the party can generally move towards November. At that point the question will be whether or not H. Clinton is hurting her future more than she is hurting her party.
There will be some Clinton supporters who will never come out of the jungle. So be it.
I’m hoping that the teevee people move into sportscaster mode and start talking about the reality of the numbers nonstop after tonight.
Every sports fan has been through the process of trying to explain to someone why their team can’t do it mathematically.
Once the ordinary voter starts recognizing the impossibility of the numbers, then the percentage that thinks she should stay in will start to drop. The average Hillary voter is less invested in this race than the on-line Hillary supporters. Just as the average Obama voter is also less invested than the on-line Obama supporters. All the exit polls have shown that the vast majority of voters would be fine with the other candidate.
The mention of Sharpton reminded me. We haven’t heard from either Sharpton or Rev. Jackson very much during this season. There is good reason. Obama doesn’t want to get anywhere near those two divisive figures.
Last year I remember that Jesse Jackson tried to pull Obama into the Jena scandal. I do believe that Jackson, Sharpton and even Farrakhan are all in some way owned by the oligarchy and are used as a means of attacking African American movements and individuals when needed. They are, essentially, propaganda tools.
Expect an outbreak of appearances by these people, divisive issues being raised and the blending of Obama with these three men by the media if Obama wins the nomination.
Be prepared.
check this out.
The O man is playing too nice at this point. The Clinton’s are backed by criminals, have made like 50 mil in 8 years, and haven’t released their taxes.
I’d have to at least point out to the media that they haven’t even taken a look at that stuff if I were Obama’s campaign.
some serious stuff, thanks
notice no Latinos in her inner circle..anyone from Texas listening?
good god….
MSM self serving greed to keep the pot stirred was served up on the golden platter of ‘Miss Hillary is a victim’. I can smell the rubber from here of the screeching tires as the MSM braked and did a 180 on covering her last week. What I don’t understand is Zogby pointing out that it’s the men in TX that are moving into her camp. Not even sure I want to figure that one out.
Whatever happens here, it’s time for the DNC to revisit this whole structure because in a cycle where people are crawling through fire to cast a vote, the timing of the primaries/caucus’, the whole delegate debacle, Michigan, Florida, it’s all working like a firehose. This battle may be shitty, but it’s nothing compared to what’s gotta happen next January.
Oh yeah, and did I mention the icestorms in Ohio, great power outages and Diebold.
delegate counter game and it actually seems like Obama can clinch this with 2025 even if he loses OH, WV, KY & PA.
From what I am reading around here right now, even with frequent heavy drizzle and temps in the 30’s, turnout has been pretty good. A co-worker who passed a couple of polling places on the way in said people were lined up out the doors.
My polling place only handles a relatively small number of rural voters but they had already had a few people through at 7:00 when I was in there.
Going to be an interesting day here in Ohio.
Voting extended for 10 days in one Ohio county because of flooding.
The court approved it, but 10 days seems excessive to me.
Agreed. 10 days is an exceptionally long time. Jefferson County is rural, but certainly not that remote a place that they need 10 days after a heavy rain.
Jefferson County has about 48,000 registered voters. In 2006 a little over 52% voted. In the 2004 Dem primary there were about 15,000 total votes cast. Kerry took 50%. By the demographics I would kind of expect this to be more a Hillary constituency than an Obama one.
The Dems have a long history of managing to lose ‘in the bag’ elections. I think you’ve pretty much described how they’ll lose this one.
The Dems like a brawl within their own party. When it comes to fighting the Repubs however that is another matter as they becoming shrinking violets.
It seems to me that on the whole voters in the Dem primary are evenly balanced between the 2 candidates. Each candidate having a small lead over the other in some segment of the voting population. Hillary was never the “inevitable” candidate and neither is Obama favored overwhelmingly.
Dem primary voters would be happy with either candidate when all is said and done. That’s why it does not make sense for the campaigns to go excessively negative and focus on battering the other candidate. The only one that wins in that case is McCain as the Dem leaning voter becomes polarized and is unenthusiastic about the other candidate. A scenario with a decent probability as the primary campaign goes through Puerto Rico and into Denver with no clear winner and becoming more contentious by the day.
This would then naturally focus attention on all the machinations to get to the nominee. Not a pretty sight and a perfect platform for McCain to shore up his base and hammer the Dems, while the corporate media feast on all the discord in the Democratic party. Ultimately repulsing many Dem leaning voters and lowering their enthusiasm in November. If this scenario materializes don’t count out McCain!
Exactly. I think urging folks to strategically avoid voting for Hillary is far more divisive than just being positive about Obama. Obama’s done a great job of this, I think – I wish everyone else would pick up on the approach.
Why so low? I’ve seen nothing under double digits.
The other predictions make sense. Hope TX is indeed a blowout to blunt a modest Clinton in in OH.
More here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3483296.ece