Something to remember tonight:
With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it’s worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama’s lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama’s 161 — a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.
Now, let’s look more closely at those delegates. Al Giordano has been very successful in predicting delegate counts so far in this process. Here are his last predictions for today.
Texas: Obama +27
Ohio: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama +5
Giordano actually upgraded Clinton’s chances based on recent polls. Two days ago he was predicting that Obama would net three delegates out of Ohio even with a narrow loss in the popular vote.
Rather than make my own predictions, I predict that Giordano is not far off. Clinton could easily do worse in Ohio, but is unlikely to do much better. In fact, the icy weather in Ohio is going to be murder on her turnout models, as her base is both less motivated and more car bound. Clinton could also do worse in Rhode Island. I am not at all sure she is going to pull five delegates out of there.
Meanwhile, Texas has always been difficult for Clinton, delegate-wise. Giordano gives Obama 16 delegates from the primary portion of the vote and another 11 from the caucus portion. My guess is that he will get less from the primary and more from the caucus, but the 27 number seems conservatively realistic.
If Obama comes out of today’s voting with a net gain of 20 delegates, that should be the story. If the Clintons wish to go on to Pennsylvania, they can spin the popular vote (if they win it anywhere) as somehow important. It’s not. This is a race for delegates. If you want to know who had a better day, keep in mind that Clinton needs a net gain of 52 delegates just to stay where she is. She’s unlikely to get anywhere close to that.
Unfortunately, the Clintons have been successful in prepping the public for a far lower standard of success.
Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party’s presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Many members of the media openly confess that they have both a financial and human-interest incentive to see the race continue. We should keep in mind that the media’s bottom line has no relationship to what is best for the Democratic Party. Clinton would have to win 57% of the delegates (including today) to get even with Obama, but as Jonathan Chait notes:
The only way she could possibly do this would be to utterly destroy Obama’s reputation, make him a radioactive figure, like Al Sharpton. This also seems like an extreme longshot, though the Clinton campaign appears to be attempting to pull it off with its flurry of attacks.
We need to consider this from two perspectives. If Clinton stays on but fails to win the nomination, how much damage will she do to Obama’s chances against McCain by attempting to make him radioactive? On the other hand, if Clinton stays in and succeeds in winning the nomination, how many of Obama’s supporters will line up to work and vote for her after such a campaign?
It’s one thing to prefer Clinton to Obama. But you should be realistic. Her chances of winning the nomination are almost nil. But if she were to win it, her chances of uniting the party for a race against McCain are even worse.
