You can look at the Texas caucus numbers as they come in at the Texas Democrats site. The primary results (with delegate allocations) are at the Texas Secretary of State site (scroll down). Burnt Orange Report has a useful chart of the primary results (with delegate allocations).
Based on the results from the Texas Secretary of State, Clinton has a 4 delegate advantage (65-61) from the primary portion. Burnt Orange Reports that she has a one delegate lead (63-62). The difference lies in two discrepancies. BOR has Obama winning the 15th Senate District 3-1, while the SOS has it as a 2-2 tie. And BOR has Clinton winning the 19th Senate District 2-1, while the SOS has her winning it 3-1. The 15th District was showing a 3-1 split last night, and it is very close. Obama won 74,127 (63.9%) votes to Clinton’s 41,264 (35.5%). I thought it took a twenty-five point spread to turn a four-delegate district from 2-2 to 3-1, and Obama appears to have a 28-point spread, so I don’t know who is at error here. Whatever the case, it appears that Clinton won either 2 or 4 delegates (not one) out of the primary portion of the Texas contest.
It is not yet clear how many delegates Obama will get out of the caucuses. Here’s a clue, though (keeping in mind that all the caucus results are not yet reported):
- Districts that were tied in the primary delegate allocation that Obama won in the caucus: 1,2,4,5,8,11,12,15,16,25
Districts that were tied in the primary delegate allocation that Clinton won in the caucus: 18,26,31
Districts that Clinton won in the primary delegate allocation that Obama won in the caucus: 3,24
Districts that Obama won in the primary delegate allocation that Clinton won in the caucus: none
Based on that information, it looks like a solid bet that Obama will come out the caucuses with more delegates than he lost in the primary portion of the Texas contest. In other words, Obama won Texas and needs to make that as clear as possible over the next couple of days.
