You can look at the Texas caucus numbers as they come in at the Texas Democrats site. The primary results (with delegate allocations) are at the Texas Secretary of State site (scroll down). Burnt Orange Report has a useful chart of the primary results (with delegate allocations).
Based on the results from the Texas Secretary of State, Clinton has a 4 delegate advantage (65-61) from the primary portion. Burnt Orange Reports that she has a one delegate lead (63-62). The difference lies in two discrepancies. BOR has Obama winning the 15th Senate District 3-1, while the SOS has it as a 2-2 tie. And BOR has Clinton winning the 19th Senate District 2-1, while the SOS has her winning it 3-1. The 15th District was showing a 3-1 split last night, and it is very close. Obama won 74,127 (63.9%) votes to Clinton’s 41,264 (35.5%). I thought it took a twenty-five point spread to turn a four-delegate district from 2-2 to 3-1, and Obama appears to have a 28-point spread, so I don’t know who is at error here. Whatever the case, it appears that Clinton won either 2 or 4 delegates (not one) out of the primary portion of the Texas contest.
It is not yet clear how many delegates Obama will get out of the caucuses. Here’s a clue, though (keeping in mind that all the caucus results are not yet reported):
- Districts that were tied in the primary delegate allocation that Obama won in the caucus: 1,2,4,5,8,11,12,15,16,25
Districts that were tied in the primary delegate allocation that Clinton won in the caucus: 18,26,31
Districts that Clinton won in the primary delegate allocation that Obama won in the caucus: 3,24
Districts that Obama won in the primary delegate allocation that Clinton won in the caucus: none
Based on that information, it looks like a solid bet that Obama will come out the caucuses with more delegates than he lost in the primary portion of the Texas contest. In other words, Obama won Texas and needs to make that as clear as possible over the next couple of days.
A request to the Booman community:
Go to newspaper sites and articles mentioning Clinton’s “victory” in Texas, register, and post there. A lot of Clinton supporters are regularly posting and commenting all kinds of BS crap on newspaper articles and other blogs.
Here, we’re preaching to the converted. We need to reach beyond our community and help spread some truth to the rest of the media.
Seriously – if you’ll look around, you’ll see her shills are everywhere. We need to do some rebuttals!!
True.
Although to give the Obama campaign credit, they’ve been very good at pointing out when they win. They were on top of Nevada. They’ll be on top of Texas. But they need every surrogate out there talking about his win in Texas.
And it would kill another bird with one stone if they point out how it’s ridiculous to say that the media is biased in favor of Hillary when the media reported her as winning Texas before the results of the caucus were in.
Maybe by the end of the Democratic nominating process the media will be whipped into shape and only report facts. uh … forget I said that. A moment of derangement on my part. 😉
I’ll take your moment of derangement over Hillary’s MONTHS of it.
Hey Booman? Want to see something great? Well, we’d seen Hillary lifting McCain’s rhetoric, and while it was frustrating and stupid, it wasn’t surprising, what with the Marc Penn thing and all. But now she’s using Bush’s rhetoric to describe her campaign. Yes, that’s right. Hillary Clinton’s claiming her campaign has “turned a corner”, just like Iraq did four (?) years ago. Though it looks like Obama’s doing a good job of proving he’s a fighter – he’s already attacking his enemy’s strengths:
I hope this can get some play
Especially since Clinton is so very proud of that ghastly 3 a.m. ad that she saw fit to repeat the line in her victory speech.
I certainly hope that question is posed, because I’ve been wondering about that for MONTHS!
My guess as to why she didn’t have security clearance while she was in the White House is that it would have been a political nightmare. Both her and Bill took an awful lot of shit just for Hillary pitching health care because she was ‘just the first lady’, can you imagine the stink that would have been made if she had been given security clearance?
This is an excellent point. A lifetime of experience? She should not have been privy to classified information or the decision making process that used them.
Obama is thinking about the party as a whole. He can rip her apart if he goes negative and she is forcing him. Her experience is not hers, her accomplishments from 1992-2000 were not hers. Tea parties and interior decorating aside. She is pissing me off now.
Tea parties and interior decorating aside?
I hate Hillary’s tactics, but YOU are pissing me off now.
Good. When you go negative and give the opposition party’s candidate a pat on the back while bashing your honorable democratic opponent then you have opened Pandora’s box. Those are two things all first ladies have on their duty list. No?
So… HC utterly failed her healthcare initiative, but I’m nonetheless guessing it was a priority above tea parties. Just cause they get ugly doesn’t mean we have to.
I guess HRC will need to do a new commercial showing what happens at 3:30 am.
I’m waiting for someone to do one that has a woman answer the phone and say, “Bill, it’s Monica AGAIN!!”
Maybe SNL could have some fun with the phone motif.
BooMan, I just created a spreadsheet with the caucus results reported so far tallied. Here’s what I get:
Delegates assigned from Primary: 126
Clinton: 65
Obama: 61
Delegates to be assigned from Caucuses: 67
The rest of the numbers must be prefixed with the fact that not all precincts are reporting, so these numbers may vary, and may vary dramatically. But if they stay relatively constant in terms of overall percentages, here’s what I see.
I added up all the delegate totals so far at the Texas Democratic Party site.
Total county convention delegates assigned so far: 38143
Total to Clinton: 16945
Total to Obama: 21198
As percentages:
Clinton: 44%
Obama: 56%
If you apply those percentages to the total delegates available, 67, you get this:
Clinton: 30
Obama: 37
Add those to the primary delegates above now:
Clinton: 95
Obama: 98
So Obama is in the lead in Texas, currently. And we have reason to believe he will remain in the lead!
And the narrative coming out of Texas should be this: Obama won the caucuses, Hillary won the Primaries. A lot of Hillary supporters were voting for her because she was the presumptive nominee or out of fear, a lot of Obama voters voted for him because they’re really passionate about him and his platform.
Interesting that to participate in the caucus you had to have voted in the primary. Seems the Obama supports were willing to stick it out to get the job done and the Hill supporters were happy with half the job done.
Yes – it speaks to the commitment of Obama’s base – something we need very much in November!
Also – I have to give credit to all the people who made calls to Texas to make SURE all Obama supporters we knew of knew to get to the caucuses. Again, that points to the superior organization ability of the Obama campaign as well, something ELSE we’ll need in the fall.
No, they all have jobs, remember?
LOL, Rolla! And they all happen to work the night shift too!
The narrative should be, he won the STATE, by winning the caucuses and staying close enough in the primary.
He won the STATE because his supporters had the passion, drive, and commitment to follow through and get it done. Hillary’s won the first round, then gave up and went home. That’s a powerful message.
I’ll update the sheet throughout the day. I don’t expect the delegate counts to change month, even if the totals do.
Real History Lisa, good of you.
Ron Fournier, AP writer has this – superdelegates are fretting. Donna Brazille, former Gore campaign manager, and a super delegate said we may have to intervene on Obama’s behalf.
I noticed in his speech last night (I really hadn’t been home that long; what was another few minutes?) that he was talking about “Hillary Clinton and John McCain” throughout. She’s been echoing John!! Repeatedly. And he needs to remind people of that.
Anyway, I’m ready to head to PA.
OK, back to my regularly scheduled over work day (and night), already in progress.
She’s not just echoing McCain. See my post above – she’s started echoing Bush‘s language on Iraq and applying it to her campaign. While unintentionally appropriate, I think this indicates quite clearly what’ll happen if she somehow winds up in the White House: four more years of Bush policy, minimum.
how dumb is that..praising McCain? Hillary is only for the moment.
And Obama camp is asking what experience..yours or your husbands?
she has landed in PA.
Well, in news from the other side of the aisle it would seem that the King Midas of Shit has finally decided to fecalize McCain.
Bush endorses McCain in presidential race
Olbermann reported tonight (Wed.) that the crossover was going Clinton’s way, per Dallas Morning News (?). Does anyone have anything on this? It’s yet to show up anywhere on the net where I can find it.
I’ve been tracking (loosely) the strategic crossover voting (i.e., raiding), which also showed up in Ohio, BTW. I can try to do some the work myself, by looking for some exit polls, but I wondered if anyone else had run into reports of unusually high Texas Republican vote going Clinton’s way.
This is not a big issue, particularly since the effect is being drowned out by sincere crossovers who are voting for Obama — but it is taking a point or two off his totals in some cases.
There is some potential for this issue to develop within the context of the campaign. Amy Holmes first reported discussion of raiding within Republican circles regarding the Virginia primary, and this seems to have been the earliest plausible time for its emergence. It seems to have appeared again in Wisconsin, and there was supporting anecdotal evidence. The most recent evidence — besides statistical arguments — consists of Rush Limbaugh’s instructions to his fans, which I assume almost all of you are aware of. We can expect that we’ll be seeing more raiding in those upcoming contests where crossing over is permissible. I have the open primaries as — MS, IN, and MT.