No one thinks that Hillary Clinton will win the primary in Mississippi today, but there are optimistic and pessimistic projections. The optimistic projection is that Obama will win 3 of the 4 congressional districts and pull a 20-13 delegate advantage, the pessimistic projection is that Obama will win one of the congressional districts and pull a 17-16 delegate advantage. Based on little more than a hunch, I think Obama will win 2 congressional districts. Obama will win the 2nd congressional district by a huge margin and pull a 5-2 (or possibly 6-1) delegate advantage. He will probably (but not definitely) lose the 1st congressional district. The big question is whether he can win the 3rd and 4th districts. I think he’ll win the third and lose the fourth. If he can get more than 59.9% of the overall vote, he’ll get a bonus delegate. Based on the polls, he is right at that 59.9% threshold, and everything will turn on organization and late deciders.
Mississippi’s white population is among the least educated in the nation, and that spells trouble for Obama. He may not crack 20% of the white vote. If he does better with whites he will have a big night. My prediction:
Obama 58% Clinton 42% (Delegates O-6, C-5)
District 1- Delegates C-3, O-2
District 2- Delegates O-5, C-2
District 3- Delegates O-3, C-2
District 4- Delegates C-3, O-2
Total Delegates- Obama 18, Clinton 15
Factors that could help Obama: If he can win 59.9% of the vote he will get a 7-4 split in the at-large delegates. If he can get 78.57% of the vote in District 2, he will get a 6-1 split. If he can win District 4, he’ll flip it to a 3-2 split in his favor.
Clinton needs to win Districts 1, 3, and 4, hold Obama below 78.57% in District 2, and keep him below 59.9% statewide. If she does that, she’ll emerge just one delegate worse for wear.
The more convincing Obama’s win the better the chances that he can bring forth a bloc of superdelegates to say that the race should not go on to Pennsylvania.
