No one thinks that Hillary Clinton will win the primary in Mississippi today, but there are optimistic and pessimistic projections. The optimistic projection is that Obama will win 3 of the 4 congressional districts and pull a 20-13 delegate advantage, the pessimistic projection is that Obama will win one of the congressional districts and pull a 17-16 delegate advantage. Based on little more than a hunch, I think Obama will win 2 congressional districts. Obama will win the 2nd congressional district by a huge margin and pull a 5-2 (or possibly 6-1) delegate advantage. He will probably (but not definitely) lose the 1st congressional district. The big question is whether he can win the 3rd and 4th districts. I think he’ll win the third and lose the fourth. If he can get more than 59.9% of the overall vote, he’ll get a bonus delegate. Based on the polls, he is right at that 59.9% threshold, and everything will turn on organization and late deciders.
Mississippi’s white population is among the least educated in the nation, and that spells trouble for Obama. He may not crack 20% of the white vote. If he does better with whites he will have a big night. My prediction:
Obama 58% Clinton 42% (Delegates O-6, C-5)
District 1- Delegates C-3, O-2
District 2- Delegates O-5, C-2
District 3- Delegates O-3, C-2
District 4- Delegates C-3, O-2
Total Delegates- Obama 18, Clinton 15
Factors that could help Obama: If he can win 59.9% of the vote he will get a 7-4 split in the at-large delegates. If he can get 78.57% of the vote in District 2, he will get a 6-1 split. If he can win District 4, he’ll flip it to a 3-2 split in his favor.
Clinton needs to win Districts 1, 3, and 4, hold Obama below 78.57% in District 2, and keep him below 59.9% statewide. If she does that, she’ll emerge just one delegate worse for wear.
The more convincing Obama’s win the better the chances that he can bring forth a bloc of superdelegates to say that the race should not go on to Pennsylvania.
I always like to read dansac’s primary day threads.
but even still, it seems like nobody is going to get team Clinton to back out, no matter what.
So the question is who has the juice to convince her and what will entice her to not take this as far as she wants?
I thought that maybe there could be something promised to her, even Majority Leader, but now it seems like all bets are off….
She’s angling for the VP slot, and trying to make it look like Obama’s being ungracious or petty if he doesn’t pick her. That’s what all this Dream Team rhetoric is about. She’s trying to make it look like an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket is inevitable. Of course, if she wins, there’s no chance in hell Obama will be anywhere near the ticket. But that’s the Clintons for you!
a bloc of superdelegates that is big enough would do the job.
what happened to the 50 Brokaw said that were “in his back pocket”?
he lost Ohio and the Texas popular vote, and they stayed in the pocket. Tomorrow would be the logical time to come out of the pocket, if they are ever going to do so.
But do you actually believe they’re in his pocket? My instinct is to believe Tom Brokaw, mainly because he’s, well, Tom Brokaw. But I’m not sure Obama’s got them.
Still Clinton’s way ahead in the latest SUSA poll out of Penn. 55-36% or something. I doubt she’s going anywhere. And I’m still betting that she’d rather destroy Obama’s chances in November than show some class and get out.
There’s no way Clinton will drop out before PA. Her goal is to gain the popular vote lead, for more bargaining power, and PA is her last chance to do that. Also, Obama’s win in Miss. really doesn’t mean that state has a ghost of a chance to go Dem in the General. Team Clinton will certainly point that out.
Ah yes. Yet another state that “doesn’t matter.”
Maybe not, but, if he shows some strength with whites, he could well demonstrate overall strength in the region. I’ll bet you he has a decent shot in Georgia, for example. Mississippi is poorer and doesn’t have anything comparable to Atlanta as a progressive anchor, but I think it also has a larger black population. Don’t discount Obama’s chances in the Deep South simply because of the ugly history. Many parts are not the backwoods, racist hellholes they used to be.
I spent the early half my life in Atlanta and it is a oasis of diversity surrounded by a desert of conservative backwardness. I know there are dots of deep blueness scattered across the state but they are swallowed by the red majority. Yes, rednecks are a dying breed but they’ve been replaced by suburban Republicans.
Most of my family is from Ila, about 60 miles NE of the city. You’re right about the oasis. But I also submit that suburban Republicans are a different breed from redneck Republicans. Obama does well with suburban Republicans, from what I’ve seen.
I agree. For Obama here in MS, as in the rest of the
deep South, it should be about making a popular-vote showing. Clinton’s got no more of a chance in the General here than Obama, apart from degrees. But, as has been said somewhere, if he can break 20% of the white vote here in the magnolia state, believe it or not, that in itself shows he has actual cross-racial viability, and can be seen as an encouraging indicator. Mississippi has essentially NO progressive presence, so were he to get 30% of the whites today… well, personally, I’d be gratified AND surprised (speaking as one of them).
Hello, all. I just voted in MS, and things look pretty good for Obama here, as per C/W–overall. Here in the 4th CD (the Coast/Gene Taylor’s district), things don’t look quite as rosy, but it should be pretty competitive for him. Turnout at our precinct was pretty light with no irregularities. Hillary will do fairly well, I’m thinking: Bill was in Biloxi talking up health care–“How many people need health care, or for that matter, a president?”–that kind of stuff, though politically, Katrina Recovery is still the rhetorical coin of the realm around here. Hillary was in Hattiesburg and it went fairly well for her, though I got the sense that the bulk of the positivity was more about the celebrity factor than anything else.
The thing about the Coast is that the closer you get to the water, it becomes a little less black and a little more Catholic–slightly favoring Hillary. As the political demographics around here go, I’m little more than an anomaly, myself: seventh-generation Mississippian/white/male/straight/agnostic/liberal. There ARE a few of us, but not many. Once you separate out the black Democrats/liberals in Mississippi from the rest, what you have is a smattering of white women and a few token white males like me. I have to say though, that in my experience, most black Democrats in Mississippi aren’t especially liberal–many are quite socially conservative– as a lot of you know, I’m guessing–which reflects the political climate in the state as a whole, and much of the South.
I saw that Al Giordano at The Field is giving Barack the p. delegate split, 17/16–pessimistic, as BooMan said. Giordano’s got a pretty good track record, but I’m hoping for a slightly better result!
It’s interesting: A few of the white women around here have actually come around to Obama largely due to Hillary’s going heavily negative, with an emphasis on the perceived racial overtones. I think in the South in general, we’re more sensitized to race in politics–and sometimes, even in a good way!
In fact, it was Bill’s stunt in South Carolina that finally pushed me squarely into Obama’s camp (I was with Edwards at that point). Hillary’s NOT Southern, but Bill IS–I can tell from the accent–and he knew perfectly well what he was doing. Her campaign’s conduct just gets more ridiculous by the day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a backlash on the horizon. Has she forgotten she’s appealing to DEMOCRATS and LIBERALS? All that “If you don’t vote for me, at least vote for McCain” stuff? Barf bag, please. The polling’s starting to indicate maybe there IS a backlash coming. If only Obama can stay out of the mud–and I think he will, for the most part–I think he’ll pull decisively ahead. We’ll see. Well, on to PA–(eventually).
thanks for the update from the ground. Great comment.
great update, thanks for sharing it!
Here are some exit polls I just stumbled across via the ass press.