Obama has cracked the 60% threshold. If he holds on to it, he should win the At-large delegates 7-4. He looks solid to win the 2nd and 3rd Districts, and possibly the 4th. The 1st District looks bad to me. So, let me go with what I think we’ve got.
At-Large: Obama 7, Clinton 4
District 1: Clinton 3, Obama 2
District 2: Obama 5, Clinton 2
District 3: Obama 3, Clinton 2
District 4: Obama 3, Clinton 2
Totals: Obama 20, Clinton 13.
If I’m right it means that Obama won the March pledged delegate race by a narrow 209-206 margin. Did you think March 5th was a turning point? Forget it.
What do things look like on other fronts? Well, he picked up about 80,000 net popular votes. That gives him a popular vote advantage of approximately 683,000. Even if you include Michigan (where he wasn’t on the ballot) and Florida, he now leads by about 60,000.
His pledged delegate advantage is 1,398-1,236. That’s a net of 162. Including superdelegates, he conservatively leads 1,609-1,483. That’s a net of 126.
I think the adults need to send a message tomorrow before the Clintons get it in their head that they can still win this thing. The party elders need to learn to say ‘no’. We have our nominee and we do not need seven weeks of petulance aimed at running our nominee down.
It would be nice if they could end it.
Two problems though.
The superdelegates are chicken. They know that the Hillary supporters will accuse them of ending it ‘before its time’ and the party hasn’t made a good enough case to the public at large yet that it is over for her — so they are afraid that the public will believe the Hillary supporters. They were hoping Obama would do it for them by winning the Texas primary but he didn’t.
The other problem is that Hillary won’t quit until it’s absolutely over and that means that they need a large number of superdelegates to commit to Obama. It might be easy for Pelosi to round up Senators, Congresspeople and maybe even Governors, but many superdelegates are lesser known state party people. Could be problem coordinating them to pull the plug in advance.
Looking at my projections from this morning, Obama outperformed my expectations. Nothing is certain, but it looks solid that he will get the 7-4 at-large and win the 4th district (by a few hundred votes, probably).
Anyway…I am only talking about they should do. When do pols ever do that?
Yeah, he’s continuing along the path. He’s done well.
I think Pelosi’s statement today means she’s thinking about how to end this. I’m just not sure that a clean end is possible before PA – because Hillary can’t be reasoned with. And the logistics of organizing that number of superdelegates to come together is a bit overwhelming. But maybe Nancy will surprise me.
Wow. Like minds… while I was typing up the same thing, you beat me to it.
Buy me a coke!
Since we’re ‘in’ Mississippi tonight I thought I’d use the Southern expression.
Yeah, that’s what we generally say, a lot of times. It’s used a generic term for any soft drink. Screwy, huh? Although some of the more rustic old folks used to say something like “coke-coler”. The first time I heard somebody call it “pop”, I thought it was hilarious!
let’s say, hypothetically, that Tom Brokaw was right that Obama had about 50 supers lined up if he won Texas outright. They should come out now.
Why?
It would be a beautiful thing.
Can they can get over their fear of alienating the Clinton supporters? They fear being blamed if anything goes wrong – if Obama manages to lose it in November. They fear the excuse will be all the alienated Clinton supporters. I think it’s a small risk but I’m not them.
It’s a damn shame that there are so many weeks until the PA primary. If there were only two weeks they could engineer it and manage expectations. Instead of creating the expectation that they will all come out for Obama if he WINS Penn, they could create the expectation that they would all come out if Hillary didn’t win PA by a large percentage. An unspecified large percentage.
That’s a good plan. Except it keeps everything going for far too long.
my plan is a lot better.
well … yeah. Of course your plan is better.
It sounded like Bill Richardson was ready the other day. I don’t know who the 50 are but I believe they exist. Lacy Clay talked about them to the Columbia Missouri newspaper separately from the Brokaw mention. And Lacy is tight with the Obama campaign, he’s been with them from the beginning since we’re ‘neighbors’. So I believe they do exist.
It’s just whether Nancy can prod them beyond their fears.
If Obama loses in November Clinton doesn’t necessarily take over the party. She’s made a lot of enemies. There may still be a core of people who believe that the Democratic Party is better off without a Clinton sitting at the top.
I’ve heard repeatedly about Brokaw’s 50 delegates. Does anyone know exactly where he came by that intriguing little nugget?
Also, I’ve heard talk about the pros and cons of Obama scheduling trips to Europe, Asia, and Israel during the break. Any thoughts about that? Think going to Berlin would help him with the German-Americans in PA (that’s one of the specific arguments I’ve stumbled onto).
Also: I don’t hate math so much now.
The Obama campaign has been toying with a plan to do an international tour. I hope they do it and go to Germany, Ireland, The UK – to meet Gordon Brown and Princes William and Harry, The Vatican (Rome) to meet The Pope, Israel, Vietnam, Australia – to meet Kevin Rudd… and anything else they can think up to fit into a few weeks instead of being in PA the whole time. ALL will receive him like royalty. He should also consider a USO-type visit to Afghanistan and Iraq to speechify the troops, who support him heavily. Imagine all of the great footage for commercials and the Dem Convention… Screaming, cheering crowds wherever he goes. America is back!
Hillary taught us that an Inevitability Tour invites backlash. So…
It’s tricky.
Obama should do a week in PA, hit all the points…Pittsburgh, Erie, Harrisburg, Philly Suburbs, Philly, Happy Valley, Scranton. Then they should do extensive polling. If he thinks he can win it by more campaigning, he should stay. If not, he should go abroad. Maybe a world tour will make Clinton look petty canvassing for votes in Wilkes-Barre.
Either way, he needs to spend the last ten days in PA working hard.
I’d like to see him do the Sixty Nine County Strategy. Maybe he already is, I don’t know for sure.
Man, I gotta admit, just the imagery of that, him unleashing that smile on thousands of cheering people
all over the world would make a really profound, even moving statement: “America’s back, and we want to reconnect with you.”
All I can think of is … the jetlag.
Whatever happens, I hope they let him sleep for the next 48 hours straight. I know that campaign schedule. The two times I’ve worked on campaigns I literally felt I had shortened my life span. It’s not healthy to go without sleep that much!
It’s time for a come to Jesus meeting, for Hillary.
It’s time for a “Jesus Christ! You’re tearing apart the party” meeting for Clinton.
Nancy Pelosi made an important statement today – that we should not be expecting a “Dream Ticket” of Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama because of what Hillary had said about Obama (not being qualified as CiC.) She wanted to make it clear, so no one misunderstood, that there is a problem here. Don’t be surprised if she doesn’t start making some calls (privately) to build a real “intervention” with a large group of Superdelegates, including herself, to confront Hillary and force her out. She sees the damage that Hillary is doing to the down-ticket races.
Yes, exactly. Interesting thing, though. In the Pelosi quote I saw, she specifically used the phrase “Clinton
Administration”–a senior moment recalling the Bill years, or something less benign, possibly a slap a Hillary? In any case, it does seem she’s at least weighing in her own mind the cost/benefit of an “intervention” session.
Bring that gavel down right on her head, Nancy!
I also saw an interview with one of Nancy’s daughters, who is a Dem party official (and Superdelegate,) today and she tried to pretend that she’s on the fence as to who she will endorse, but something was up. She wasn’t happy with the sound of the election and was VERY concerned about the young new voters who are quickly becoming disillusioned. Something’s going on here.
Absolutely. I heard another Pelosi quote a few days ago in which she said essentially, that Obama MIGHT not get the nomination, and if he doesn’t, he needs to make sure he keeps all the new blood he’s brought into the process locked up for the nominee (which would be Hillary, presumably). So she’s clearly worried about losing those voters, that enthusiasm for the process, and she’s pretty much wondering out loud how much of it is tied to Obama himself. Some polling suggests quite a bit, actually. She doesn’t think Hillary can necessarily hold on to them, it seems. That combined with the prospect of a neck-and-neck Clinton/McCain matchup is pretty sobering.
This is yet another reason why Obama needs to be President. He’s built himself a pretty hoopty organization, and it would be a shame if it just fell apart because he didn’t get the nomination (I can’t see any way he can lose the election if he’s nominated). If he’s President he can still get those people he brought into the process in the first place, fired up and ready to serve.
My hope, anyway. I think it’ll happen that way, but I know that if Hillary gets the nomination, it won’t.
Yeah, it’s Obama’s fault. He wouldn’t be in the position he’s in if he wasn’t a black man.
I expected this. But I expected this because I’ve been reading Booman.
Looks like Hillary might hang on to MS-04 by the skin of her teeth, but we tried. Seems like the coastal counties on the water pretty much went for Obama, while those just north, the near-coastal counties went especially for Clinton (George and Greene Co.’s being the biggest offenders). The bastards. I have a mind to throw my freshly-made latte right in their faces after I get back from the boutique.
Also: Just heard Ferraro say on ABC, “They better just lay off! I’m outraged they’d call me a racist”. Something about a shoe fitting comes to mind. PA is too far away to anticipate what’s next in Clinton’s playbook. This is just gettin’ UGLY.
“They better just lay off!” Or ….?
I find this whole Ferraro thing very depressing. Not just her ugliness or the Hillary campaign’s refusal to cut her off. But the fact that the more the Obama camp complains the more air time it’s going to get – which isn’t good.
I think I need a latte.
Ferraro is sad and pathetic. And whoever is using that sick, little peanut of a woman to spew this stuff is positively evil. It’s even embarrassing Clinton True-Believers.
I was just over reading Taylor Marsh. Let me tell you something…
They ain’t giving up.
nalbar
I read her take on Ferraro. Have no idea what she’s talking about. Ferraro is not disconnected from Clinton.
Anyway, what else is she going to do?
Kos is saying Obama needs 62
http://www.dailykos.com/
And looks like Florida Dems just said no to a mailin redo
I don’t understand that one.
the 62?
Kos says “Threshhold for the xtra delegate is 62% because the at-large & PLEO delegates are counted separately”
he’s probably got it either way, because all votes for candidates that didn’t reach 15% are discounted from the tabulation.
It was interesting that his pickup tonight just about brings him even with Hillary’s popular in TX. Also that the Mississippi had projected a turnout of around 125-150,000 and including the Rep tonight they’re closing in on 500,000
No. I don’t understand why the Florida congressional group, led byClinton supporters, are trying to put the kabbosh on the mail-in vote. Do they actually think that they can force the faux primary on the convention and get away with it?
I read somewhere today, that a mail-in do-over is actually prohibited by Florida law, don’t remember where, though. So, that looks to be off the table, anyway.
Hillary: “JUST SEAT THE DAMN DELEGATES, ALREADY, YOU %&#^&%$*!#!!!”
That’s what I heard too. Enough already.
After a scary flyby of Taylor’s site it’s pretty obvious that every day this goes on we’re looking at more permanent damage
I talked about that here today. I got it from The Field, who got it from Time Magazine. Yes, it’s illegal in Florida to choose a candidate for nomination or for office, etc on a mail-in ballot. Only state referendums and local measures can be done that way. But at the same time, the Governor and legislature could work together to change the law quickly as well.
But the reason they don’t allow such important things decided by mail-in is because they don’t have voter signatures scanned to be verified by automated systems as the ballots are received in the mail, leaving tons of room for fraud.
Everyone looks to Oregon as the example of vote-by-mail, as they do ALL voting that way, but they invested in automated systems to compare signatures with those from the scanned voter registration forms years ago. So that’s how they do it so reliably.
Time to go to my last-chance solution. 210 delegates, divided by two.
Obama’s popular vote net is now up to 96,000.
It’s just as profitable to win the ‘insignificant’ Mississippi primary in a landslide than the Texas primary by a hair, eh?
New update
Obama 251,098 (picked up 3,642) and at 61%
Clinton 154,310 (picked up 565) and at 37%
You want to see a funny campaign “attack ad?”
Swift Kids For Truth:
I’m not sure why people are saying Miss. is not in play for Democrats in November, so I went and looked up past year results.
I found that they went for Carter over Ford in 76, and Carter also would have beaten Reagan in 80 if not for the votes that Anderson peeled off, so it is not impossible for the D to win. Also, the most R votes ever for president were 685,000 last election, and that was with the gay marriage thing on the ballot. All other elections had less than 600,000 R votes, and many had less than 500,000.
The D votes last election were 458,000.
So without a ballot issue to get all hot and bothered about, and without an exciting candidate of their own, I am thinking the R numbers will be down while the D vote could turn out 200,000 more voters than last time with a candidate a large part of the population are really inspired by.
I know they only have 6 electoral votes, but if some of these small states swing… Every little bit counts.
Other thoughts?
I’ve been to Mississippi and Alabama a few times (family stuff) and I have been absolutely horrified at what a whole different country I was standing in. Carter succeeded in MS in 1976 because he was a WHITE Christian who played religion as part of his campaign. Obama is BLACK (down there, it’s the “N” word still.) These are some of the poorest, least educated white-trash folks that this country has ever seen and extremely racist. While the blacks may all vote for Obama in the general, they’re not the majority. So, it’s unlikely that he would carry it in the general, unfortunately.
They don’t sound like they’ll be real appreciative of McCain once more of the lobbyist stuff gets out. And with tonight’s primary Mississippi has just seen over 400,000 dems show up. Rep, pretty much stayed home, maybe it’s a trend for Nov
Let’s hope the GOP stay home in November. But I am already reading of the new wedge issue this year for the GOP being “Affirmative Action.” They are proposing ballot initiatives opposing “Affirmative Action / Quotas” in several states. Of course it has nothing to do with the Democratic candidate being a black guy… but they will spend millions to get racists to the polls just like they did to get homophobes to the polls in the last couple rounds.
Don’t count on the more racist states going for Obama… but he can and probably still will win by a very large margin nationwide. He’s just that likable, regardless of his race.
I know what you are saying, but Miss has the largest percentage of black population in the country (37%, maybe 700,000 adults) and I think it will be easy to get them fired up to vote for the first time their vote might actually matter. There are white democrats there, too, of course. All they have to do is add to the 458,000 who voted for lame-o Kerry from last time.
For the Republicans, they have a candidate they aren’t too thrilled about. Their numbers from 2004 were the highest ever because church leaders lobbied non-voters to turn out and vote against the gay. So without that, I think there will be a lot of apathy this year, and their numbers will be down a good 100,000.
If there is some other stupid ballot issue which will bring out the crazies again this year, then I take it all back. But barring that, I think there is a real chance.
Racism is certainly alive and well here in MS, and I don’t
see that changing any time soon. Unfortunately most white people here are chronically if not deeply racist.
And it’s true that there are precious few of us white liberals here. But I can honestly say, though your experiences obviously aren’t mine, that since I was a child, race relations have improved–not hugely, but detectably. It’s more of an institutional, internalized racism, more patronizing, less belligerent. And usage of the “N” word is, only in my experience of course, on the decline, though is by no means is a rare animal. Much of it is well-deserved of course, (I am painfully aware of our legacy, and it breaks my heart) but a bit less vitriol would be appreciated. Those of us who are natives and on the right side here in Mississippi are trying. That’s all I can tell you. We’re trying.
As to Obama’s chances in the general, as THE Democratic nominee… ah well, he would pull a greater number simply by virtue of being THE nominee, having relegated Clinton to the graveyard of broken dreams.
I’d say he could possibly pull half the white Dem votes,
upwards of 60% on the best night of his life, but the balance would surely break for McCain. No surprise there.
Nothing personal and I realize that things are changing generationally. I just felt the need to tell it as I saw it. In all fairness, the people I have interacted with in AL and MS were mostly older than me (I’m 37.) But it was a shocking experience after growing up in liberal-to-moderate America and then to experience the very friendly but much-lesser-educated white people than I’ve ever met whispering under their breath stuff about “the niggers” causing all of their life’s problems and preventing them from getting ahead.
I have also spent ALOT of time in Atlanta. Entirely different dynamic. There may be some racism going on but everyone (black and white) is much better educated and integrated – more respectful of one another.
Okay, now I have seen the figures in Miss that 75% of Clinton voters would not vote for Obama if he were the candidate. So that would mean he would have a lock on the 253,000 he got tonight plus maybe 39,000 of the Clinton voters, that is 292,000 to count on. Of course more people vote in November, Kerry got 50,000 more votes than were cast tonight, so they are out there. I am sure there will be a historic number of new registered black voters if Obama is the nominee. Anyway, the fact is he needs to get at least 250,000 more votes than that in November to have a chance.
What I don’t know is this: The reported 75% (116,000) of tonight’s Hillary voters that say they won’t vote for Obama, will they go farther than just not voting for him — will they be actively racist and vote for the other party just to spite Obama? Or will they just be passively racist and just not vote?