Obama has cracked the 60% threshold. If he holds on to it, he should win the At-large delegates 7-4. He looks solid to win the 2nd and 3rd Districts, and possibly the 4th. The 1st District looks bad to me. So, let me go with what I think we’ve got.
At-Large: Obama 7, Clinton 4
District 1: Clinton 3, Obama 2
District 2: Obama 5, Clinton 2
District 3: Obama 3, Clinton 2
District 4: Obama 3, Clinton 2
Totals: Obama 20, Clinton 13.
If I’m right it means that Obama won the March pledged delegate race by a narrow 209-206 margin. Did you think March 5th was a turning point? Forget it.
What do things look like on other fronts? Well, he picked up about 80,000 net popular votes. That gives him a popular vote advantage of approximately 683,000. Even if you include Michigan (where he wasn’t on the ballot) and Florida, he now leads by about 60,000.
His pledged delegate advantage is 1,398-1,236. That’s a net of 162. Including superdelegates, he conservatively leads 1,609-1,483. That’s a net of 126.
I think the adults need to send a message tomorrow before the Clintons get it in their head that they can still win this thing. The party elders need to learn to say ‘no’. We have our nominee and we do not need seven weeks of petulance aimed at running our nominee down.
