A Casual Observation

11 Comments

1. 

   on March 15, 2008 at 11:39 pm

   I can read between the lines. Why can’t Hillary?

2. 

   RandyH on March 16, 2008 at 12:05 am

   Yeah, Superdelegates. You can make all of the vicious campaigning stop by just joining together and getting behind the candidate with the most support from the voters. It’s pretty easy.

   Iowa Update:
   Ben Smith confirms that Obama actually gained 9 pledged delegates in Iowa, Clinton LOST 1 and Edwards retained 6 in today’s Iowa County Conventions. Apparently the earlier estimates were premature. Now stands at 25-14-6 respectively.

   Note to Hillary: this is what happens when you complain that caucuses are “undemocratic” and that states like Iowa “don’t count.”

3. 

   Renee in Ohio on March 16, 2008 at 12:17 am

   Angry Renee has been wanting to say something, but Mild-Mannered Renee was concerned about sowing seeds of discord in the wrong place.

   Angry Renee finally insisted that she will not be denied today, and has this to say…

   What the hell kind of progressive activist/blogger would actually enjoy the media feeding frenzy around Rev. Wright’s statements? Even if Obama is not your candidate of choice (and I still don’t get that, when the only remaining choice is Hillary), how can you not take the long view?

   I’m not going to link to anything, but there are people out there who seem to think this is a good time to pop some popcorn, sit back, and get their schadenfreude on. Hoping that this will be what takes Obama down, and rationalizing that it’s for the best, because Wright’s statements will only come back in the form of 527 ads in the fall.

   As if there isn’t unsavory stuff about the Clintons that the Karl Roves of the world are just itching to use. And after their tacit approval of this kind of guilt by association smear, what if their candidate actually does end up as the nominee? After helping establish the precedent that this stuff is fair game, do they expect Hillary won’t get that kind of treatment? Good luck with that.

   • 

     eagleye on March 16, 2008 at 1:10 am

     If I were a superdelegate, I wouldn’t be asking myself if there was some mathematical possibility that Hillary could still win the election.  I’d be wondering how she could possibly win it without fracturing the Democratic Party.

     I think we all know the answer to that question.

   • 

     liberaljournal on March 16, 2008 at 1:11 am

     It’s the type of behavior I would associate with a cult.

     • 

       highacidity on March 16, 2008 at 1:56 am

       oops a mistake, can’t change the rating though I’ve tried… sorry.

       • 

         eagleye on March 16, 2008 at 2:38 am

         Well, we probably aren’t going to see these on mainstream TV, but check out these two videos.  One by a Pastor who herself is a member at Obama’s church, and the other by the new Pastor there.

         Real scary people, huh?  

         • 

           eagleye on March 16, 2008 at 2:38 am

           http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/15/203242/685/352/477632

           Oops, forgot the link…

   • 

     Sprocket77 on March 16, 2008 at 9:47 am

     Well said. The Hillary people are still very much in denial over all this. Hopefully this too, shall pass–but not without them first making total asses of themselves and leaving the democratic process in a shambles. The more of these state contests get formally certified, the better Obama will look. And far as fodder for the Republicans to hit Hillary with, should they get the chance, that’s all better left unsaid–or IS it…?

4. 

   Oscar In Dallas on March 16, 2008 at 9:09 am

   Assuming the people at Democratic Convention Watch to be authoritative then it would take more than the 343 uncommitted superdelegates picking Obama – he would then only have 1,941 delegates when he needs 2,025 to secure the nomination. Even adding Edwards’ 26 delegates leaves him short. In order for the superdelegates to end this before PA then some of Hillary’s superdelegates would have to leave Hillary for the good of the party, and I don’t see that happening without the Clintons’ consent.

   This is why Michigan and Florida are an issue, and the optimal solution to that problem is to seat the full delegations but having the delegations apportioned to each candidate according to the national percentages for each candidate, thus the people of Michigan and Florida are represented at the convention but the makeup of their representatives will not affect the vote one way or another as punishment for breaking the rules.

   Of course, if making sense mattered then all of the superdelegates would end this madness now and endorse Obama, so this is a moot point – Barack will need to carve a wooden stake and smith some silver bullets over the next five weeks to put this thing away.

   Some garlic and holy water probably wouldn’t hurt either…

5. 

   wanderindiana on March 16, 2008 at 3:59 pm

   What did you all think of Chris Bowers’ latest breakdown of the delegate race?

   50% + 1 would be 2,155, leaving Obama 464 delegates, or 46.2% of the remaining delegates, shy of clinching. The nomination would probably be narrowly sealed either on June 3rd, or at some point later in the month once enough superdelegates endorse. Clinton would need 53.8% of the remaining delegates in order to force a brokered convention with the Edwards delegates, and 56.7% in order to win outright.