Friday’s bailout of Bear Stearns (discussed here) means a couple of thick, fat lines have been crossed.
The truth of the matter is this: Bear Stearns is done. It’s on the block, and the Fed’s bailout only served to allow the company to change hands in a semi-orderly fashion. Indeed, Saturday the company was said to be in talks with two other Wall Street firms for a buyout.
Department heads at Bear Stearns met with officials at J.C. Flowers and JPMorgan Chase Saturday afternoon to give an overview of their business divisions, including headcount and profit and loss positions, CNBC has learned.
The discussions indicate that potential bidders for Bear have been narrowed to those two firms, although other last minute contenders could still weigh in, according to one source aware of the talks.
While Bear would certainly like more bidders, time has become a major issue for the investment bank.
Bear Stearns is out of time. The Fed is taking on its debt, having swapped it out for a short-term loan that will of course be forgiven. The company will not survive and once the deal is announced, it will largely be forgotten.
Why?
Because much worse news is on the way. The Fed’s reaction to Bear Stearns proves that we’re now in the endgame of the collapse of the US financial system. The Fed bailed out Bear Stearns because it had no choice. There but for the grace of the financial gods goes every other financial house that played it fast and loose with subprime and derivative debt. They all know that if the Fed hadn’t bailed out Bear Stearns, that the game was over. Friday would have been the most disastrous day Wall Street would have ever seen. It literally would have been the next Black Friday.
So the Fed acted. It merely prolonged the inevitable, whisking the corpse of Bear Stearns away before anyone could get a good look at it, and it made the almost unprecedented move of acting as Bear’s lender of last resort through JP Morgan…something that literally would take the unanimous vote of the entire Fed governors board to do. And it was done in lightning fast fashion.
The fact the Fed acted in such precipitous fashion reveals the truth: the US financial system is on its last legs. The Fed does not know how to fix the problem, it only knows how to give band-aids and bailouts. This was a “in case of emergency, break glass” moment.
Wall Street is both relieved and terrified. They are relieved because the companies that are in real trouble know they will now be bailed out when they fail. They are terrified because they know everyone was involved. Bear Stearns is just the latest casualty. There will be more. Many more.
So why did the Fed do it? Again, they had no choice. Why? Because the Derivative Armageddon would have come immediately if they hadn’t done so. That $600 trillion dollar market would have crumbled, and even a partial loss, a percentage point, would be enough to sink the country. It would have caused a cascading default that would have literally decapitated the global financial system. Endgame.
So now we have to ask “What comes next?” It’s difficult to say exactly, but the general theory is that Bear Stearns will not be alone. More firms will expect bailouts when their insolvency crisis strikes. More major firms will fall.
Eventually the Fed will have to go to the last step in can take: socialization of these firms and their debt, in effect, throwing massive amounts of money at the problem.
In fact, that seems to be the plan. But here’s the deal, the Fed has only so much money before it has to start literally pulling it out of thin air. When that happens, inflation will skyrocket. Other countries will take their investments elsewhere, and then the real pain begins, the pain of deflation.
There’s really nothing the Fed can do. They can either inflate or raise rates. Either one fails to address the problem. The Fed’s gone for inflation as the less painful road. Short term that may be true. Long term it was a bad call. We’ll be second guessing Helicopter Ben for years, but it was politically expedient.
The next President? By the time they are allowed to actually do anything about this mess, it will be too late. Bear Stearns will not be the last house to go under.
When enough people come to the realization that the Fed can’t do anything to solve the problem and that Bush and friends are trying to get out of the blast zone with as much loot as possible, the stampede for the exits will be legendary.
Watch to see if Congress tries to raise the debt ceiling anytime soon, that will be the dead giveaway, if you’ll excuse the pun. Will we make it to 2009? Right now, I’m not sure.
Be prepared.
Bear Stearns’ collapse – the feds gave a band aid to allow time for Bear to be absorbed or be piece mealed out.
This a wake-up call for all those thinking there’s nothing to worry about. Ask Lehman too, and all the others in the cue.
This is the biggest financial debacle in global history. It’s a quadrillion shit pile of financial WMDs.
Bear Stearns, a non bank had the runs. It is largely overlooked that Bear Stearns is a Primary Dealer in U.S. Government Bonds, part of a very small and important club.
As A primary Dealer, Bear Stearns cannot be allowed to fail without undermining confidence in the U.S. and the world financial system. Bear Stearns’ failure would mean a run on every major banking and investment banking entity in the world – setting up the Great Depression II.
Now Central Banks have no option but to take out their chain saws make pulp, or create digi money – 500 trillion at the minimum. Off to finish the smoldering dollar.
Hyper inflation ahead.
it will get uglier. We’re in the second inning.
7:16 PM Sunday March 16, 2008.
PANIC in the Markets. FED cut discount rate. Bear Sold at bankruptcy price.
Bloomberg TV: There’s a deal but people are stunned. Bear stock closed at $30 on Friday. JP Morgan announced it has bought Bear at $2.00 per share Presenter asked did someone drop a zero did they mean $20? Is this a sale. No, It is $2.00 a share. (Think a no consideration sale.)
Seconds later, as I write, the Fed announces .25 cut in the discount rate on a Sunday night! THey meet on Tuesday. This is a panic.
Grandpa always said the PTB announc bad news on a SUnday evening except we now have 24 hr global trading. The Asian markets open in 1 hr.
more details on that deal.
We taxpayers are the purchasers. Looks like the Fed paid JPMorgan to take over Bear Stearns. That $2:00 per share price was a dead give away -(what we use in legalese, the phrase Purchase price paid; $1 dollar and other consideration, the $ decline adjusted for inflation would now make that $2:00)
and they’re all over this. l find this bit of info rather disconcerting:
“stabilize the financial system”…read cover BushCo’s™ ass…this is well beyond the second inning idredit, this is the seventh inner stretch, and the likihood of it being successful is about as good as you or l flapping our arms and flying.
we. are. fucked.
who got hurt the most?
The employees.
WSJ The pain could be most acute for Bear Stearns’s employees, who are steeped in a culture of personal ownership — and hold about a third of the firm’s shares outstanding.
wiped out in a fire sale. From $170 per share just two months ago.
Glad to see folks are on this. Japan’s Nikkei Index lost 400 points within the first half hour after the Fed rate cut and the Bear Stearns switcheroo…watch as the Fed magically makes Bear Stearns disappear into JP Morgan! Behold as 99% of the value of the company vanishes into thin air! Marvel as thousands of Bear Stearns employees get cut in half!
This is it folks. This week may very well see the whole thing come down. Those 30 day discount window loans are now 90 days. Banks are now able to trade in worthless paper for Fed cash at a rate good for six months after that quarter point cut on a Sunday night.
The dollar is in freefall, below 97 yen and dropping. The terms “spiral”, “oblivion”, and “full-blown meltdown” are being thrown around in the news.
People know the Fed has its back to the wall, and when it finally sinks in that the game as it was played in 2007 is over for good, the reckoning will begin.
Confidence is about to be lost in the markets worldwide.
The new game is on, and a whole lot of us about to find out we just lost.
it may not be too farfetched to imagine the next great depression descending upon us. this from the independent uk:
no shit, sherlock…and no place to hide. better go out to ace hardware and buy a wheelbarrow while you can still afford it.
The Feds lost control last August… as they held the crisis was contained.
Notice they’ve also created a new lending window for Primary dealers to monetize those toxic SIVs – temporary for 6 months
by then, who knows, the whole system may be melted.
And as if he remains blameless, Hack Greenspan in FT opines he sees worst financial market since WWII that all will
end eventually when home prices stabilise and with them the value of equity in homes supporting troubled mortgage securities.
t’ll be a long wait, ,maybe 5-10 years.
Not likely Feds can digitize $500 trillion of debt without a disastrous depression.
will the Feds do another 75 basis point or 100 basis point cut on Tuesday? Wrong medicine for the patient. Once fiat money loses its underpin – confidence – That’s it.
New currency needed.
t’ll be a long wait, ,maybe 5-10 years.
Bought our first house in 1990 the end of the last housing bubble. Sold house in 1998 for 10% less then when we bought it. This will drag on for awhile.
Nikkei is now down 500 points. Der Chimpenfuhrer is expected to meet with Helicopter Ben and Hank the Tank tomorrow morning. Dow futures are pointing to a nasty drop tomorrow. Gee, I wonder what they’re going to do? Shut down the markets? Make speeches? That Fed rate is going to get sliced by 75 or 100 basis points, and when THAT happens, when the market fails to snap out of it due to hyper-inflation, it’s over.
Right now, nobody knows what any of that paper is worth, and if nobody knows its worth, then it’s worth…nothing.
Please excuse the really ignorant question but where does the Fed get the authority to cook this deal? The money? And if the Lehmans of the world are standing at the door, did the Fed just obligate my tax $ to answer their knock?