One of these days Hillary Clinton is either going to concede or lose the delegate vote at the convention, and Barack Obama will be faced with the challenge of selecting a vice-presidential running mate. And I think it is fair to say that his choice will be more important to his general election chances than in any other contest of my lifetime. By this I do not mean that he can’t win the presidency without the assistance of his vice-president (e.g., picking up a crucial state), but that he needs to firm up his support and reinforce some positive narrative, or diminish some his negative narrative. Above all, his vice-presidential pick must serve to make the electorate more secure in their decision to make history by electing Obama.
And he has so many considerations and so many ways that he can go. Obama will enter the race with a very rare and fortuitous coalition: white liberals, the youth vote, and a monumental black vote. McCain will be looking to steal lower class white voters (including union voters), older voters, and women that are still smarting from Clinton’s loss. If we look at the electoral map, Obama will be weakest in the border states (roughly, the band between Oklahoma and West Virginia). But that weakness bleeds over into southern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and parts of Virginia and North Carolina. In addition, Obama will have to overcome John McCain’s perceived advantage (mainly experience) on national security. These are mainly defensive considerations, but Obama could also choose to accentuate his advantages, including: youth, multiracial appeal, and 50-state appeal/bipartisan appeal.
Above all, his selection must be considered as qualified for the job. With that in mind, I want to suggest two candidates. The first one, and my favorite, may surprise you.
1. Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island.
You may know next to nothing about Sen. Reed, as he tends to keep a low profile. His biography is compelling. His is the son of a school janitor who earned a scholarship to West Point. He went on to get a law degree from Harvard (like Obama) and serve as a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne (unlike Obama). He was a professor of Social Sciences at West Point before entering private legal practice, and then served as a State Senator, Congressman, and U.S. Senator. He is the fourth most senior Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee and Progressive Punch lists him as the 6th most progressive member of the Senate.
Sen. Reed seems to me to be exactly the right kind of low key national security expert to balance out a star personality like Obama’s. He reinforces that being tough on national security doesn’t mean being a neo-conservative (Reed voted against the war). While this pick would have a lot of surface similarity to Bush’s selection of Dick Cheney (from a small inconsequential state, picked for national security experience), Reed won’t outshine Obama, or make people wonder who is really running the ship of state.
If Obama looks elsewhere, Reed would make an excellent Secretary of Defense.
Advantages: Reed is a progressive and would confirm the progressive ascendancy of the progressive wing of the party. Reed is Catholic and also is (relatively) recently married, with a young daughter.
Disadvantages: Rhode Island is already as blue as they come.
2. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.
Gov. Sebelius’ selection would have two main attractions. It would confirm Obama’s commitment to a 50-state strategy, where Democrats do not restrict themselves to same electoral map used unsuccessfully by Al Gore and John Kerry. Polls already show Obama as competitive in Kansas, trailing McCain by a narrow 44%-50% margin. With Sebelius on the ticket, Obama would carry Wichita, and quite possibly the state. But the point of selecting Sebelius isn’t strongly connected to winning Kansas’ six electoral votes. The point is to send a message that the Democratic Party intends to compete in the far Midwest, Mountain States, and Southwest. And then there is the second point: she’s a woman.
While some have suggested that picking a female running mate will only exacerbate the bitter feelings of Hillary Clinton’s ardent supporters, the truth is that millions of women (and many men) from all areas of the country and all ideologies will be excited to vote for a woman. And by far the majority of them will be excited that woman is not Hillary Clinton.
Selecting a woman might backfire if it is seen as a stunt or some sop to alienated Clinton supporters, but Kathleen Sebelius is well qualified to be vice-president. She has been the governor of Kansas since 2003, giving her about the same amount of executive experience that George W. Bush had when he ran for president. She even has the added bonus of being the daughter of former governor of swing-state Ohio.
Some have noted that she isn’t the most engaging orator. Well…neither was George H.W. Bush, Al Gore, or Dick Cheney, and they all got elected as vice-presidents.
Advantages: Executive experience, 50-state appeal, the female vote, Catholic, ties to Ohio.
Disadvantages: lack of national security experience, from a small/red state, possible lack of skill on the stump/media.
Looking at the requirements I laid out above, who do you think might help Obama and be a good potential president eight years from now?
