I don’t want to pick on the South, but one of the reasons that the Republicans are in so much trouble in the Interior West is that the GOP became a culturally southern party during the Bush years. This is one way of putting it:
As [conservative radio talk-show host, Jon] Caldara put it: “Colorado is, in fact, the test tube of how to export liberal expansion to the Western states.” A moderately conservative state has been turned Blue, Caldara says, because of “the absolute demolishing of what the Right stood for, how the Republican Party turned into something it was never meant to be and went away from Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan ideas.”
When Jon Caldara says ‘Goldwater-Reagan ideas’ he means ‘libertarian’ ideas. Democrats killed themselves out West by doing things like creating a federal 55-mile per hour speed limit. The GOP gave the advantage back by obsessing over people’s sexual preferences and looting the treasury. By no means do the Democrats have any kind of dominance in the region. In fact, they are still struggling to compete in Wyoming and Idaho, and have no strength in Utah. But the Democrats have a real chance to turn New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado blue in the presidential race (provided they do not nominate Clinton).
The Republicans have one hope – at least, for a four-year reprieve: Hillary Clinton. While the Democrats as a party are building strength out West, polls consistently show that Clinton has little appeal to Independents and Republicans in the region.
Survey USA did a 50-state, 30,000-person poll earlier this month, looking at the electoral map for hypothetical McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama races. It showed that New Mexico is likely to tilt Democratic no matter what this fall – and Barack Obama could pick up Colorado and Nevada rather handily (by 9 and 5 points, respectively). But Hillary would lose Colorado by 6 points and Nevada by 8 points.
To give you an idea of the significance for the Electoral College, if a Democrat can win the Kerry states plus Iowa, then New Mexico and Colorado would push them over the top (273-265). That’s a win without Ohio or Florida. Even if the Dems were to lose Iowa, the combination of New Mexico and Virginia would give them a 270-268 victory. In other words, any strength whatsoever in the Interior West will likely prove decisive for the Democrats, as long as they can hold on to the Gore-Kerry bloc of blue states.
Given this reality, it’s surprising that John McCain hasn’t tried to paint himself as the second coming of Barry Goldwater. But, unfortunately for him, the GOP is so Southern in culture that he couldn’t run away from those values and secure the nomination. Even now that he has the nomination in hand, he doesn’t have enough institutional support to get away with a sharp move away from the Culture Wars. He will talk about environmentalism and putting an end to the looting, and closing Guantanamo, but not enough about getting the government out of our panty drawers.
There is a real chance that the Democrats can pick up strength in the Interior West in the upcoming election. The Udall cousins are favored to win senate seats in New Mexico and Colorado. Gary Trauner is running strong for Wyoming’s at-large congressional seat. Larry LaRocco is running a credible campaign for Larry Craig’s senate seat in Idaho. And the Dems are competing strongly for two Nevada congressional seats and two Arizona congressional seats. All of these races will benefit from Obama on the top of the ticket (if current polls are to be believed).
I’d add to this that the Dems have a real chance to pick up senate seats in Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Of these states, only Oklahoma appears to be Clinton country. If the Dems win several of these races and also win senate seats in Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, it will really solidify the Republican Party as a strictly southern party. Even worse for the GOP, Virginia now appears to be a blue state, and North Carolina is moving that way.
At the same time, an Obama nomination looks likely to weaken the Democrats in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Fortunately, the Dems do not need to win those states to win the election. But, those states appear to be southern enough in culture that they may become redder as the rest of the country moves in a blue direction.
What will be more interesting (if the realignment happens) is how the GOP will go about rebuilding itself in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and elsewhere outside of the South. Will we see a return to Rockefeller/Eisenhower Republicanism? I sure hope so.
It’s increasingly not even southern in culture but rather Old South. The South is changing dramatically as people leave the Midwest and Northeast, and as its economy develops rapidly in many areas (Research Triangle, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc). Watch how Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina change over the next few elections. If those three states turn blue, as I think they will, the GOP as currently constituted is finished. The Reps are being shifted to a narrow region from Alabama, over to Texas, and up to Arkansas.
Even Texas is showing some signs of life for Democrats because of rapid growth.
I’ve been reading Josh Marshall’s pieces over at TPM where he reiterates his belief that no matter how disgruntled, Dems will support whoever the nominee is in the fall.
Not going to happen here in Colorado. Has everyone forgotten how much we sucked up to get any Democrat in (Sen. Salazar) to get the majority we were told was essential? Need I go through his list of gut-churning betrayals of humanity? Introducing a known torture advocate as his first act in the senate? The gang of 14? Voting for Alito? STILL being in favor of telecom-spy amnesty? I expect him to announce his superdelegate support of HRC any day now. And getting the majority was worthless since they did nothing with it.
The argument that any Dem is better than any R is not going to fly here. Not again. Not with the taint of his actions still rising in our gorge.
Josh Marshall is dreaming…”that Dems will support whoever the nominee is in the fall” – does not grasp this is a campaign that’s deeply emotive; supporters have invested – like a marriage.
Josh has been leaning over so hard to maintain his pro- Clinton stance… it would not surprise if he hasn’t developed curvature of the spine.
amen to that.
additionally, her lack of coattails will seriously jeopardize udall’s election to the senate, and markey’s chances against musgrave…two must wins, imo.
her nomination will turn colorado red in 08.
next step: get rid of salazar in 2010.
I can’t wait until 2010 and his tush is unceremoniously kicked to the curb.
I agree Clinton would turn CO red in 2008, but I think that’s her plan.
Remember: Barack builds, Clinton breaks.
You really should pick on the South–we deserve it.
Part of the legacy of the deal with the devil that the Republican Party made in adopting Nixon’s “Southern Strategy” is that its current incarnation is shackled to the culture of the disaffected white segregationists (now just barely in the closet) and religious fundamentalists (still out and proud) for whom any sort of social progressivism (equality) was to be fought tooth-and-nail. And yeah, I think we will see a reddish backlash in parts of the South. There’s not much of a way around it. There really IS an education and income disparity in the South that is increasingly more intraregional than racial. Those areas that are trending blue will become blue with a little luck, I think. Those that aren’t will nonetheless become a bit more purple over time as they’re dragged along.
The modern GOP has got to shake its more primitive Southern cultural ties to survive in the 21st century, I think. That’s becoming more clear everyday. But how can they? McCain run as a Goldwater or even a liberal Rockefeller GOPer? — talk about a splintered base.
Will the moderates among the Republicans take back control of their party? Can they? It’s going to be a fun game of “Twister” to watch the Republicans try to evolve (pun intended) in the new century.
I think the Northeast simply cannot be reconciled with the South in the next few years for the Republicans–they’re going to be practically extinct in New England with moderates like Collins on increasingly shaky ground.
It’s going to be a VERY interesting next few decades in American national politics.
I believe the general thrust of your article is correct. The modern GOP will be come a rump party based mainly in the Old South, with growing regions like Va and NC trending Democratic. (This is the outcome of progressive decisions made in the 1960s to begin that state’s transformation to a technology player.)
As someone on the ground in Southside Va and southern WV, I’m also afraid you are correct in your estimation.
There is still an underlying racism in Southside that cannot be denied (thus look for Goode in Va-5th to be re-elected). However, the support in the NoVa/Richmond/Norfolk crescent plus the work of the Warner/Kaine machine will be enough to overcome it.
In WV, there is an anti Muslim/black man current that will lose that state. Its unfortunate as that type of racism was imported and promoted by the mine operators in the 1920s as a way to weaken Union solidarity. Its been reinforced by right wing talk shows (national and local) and a limited black population.
In both areas, the effects could be weakened by Obama with a JFK style of campaign swing through those regions; popular governors/senators at his side. Even then, don’t know if it can be completely overcome in WV.
Where’s Joe Kennedy with paper bags full of money when you need him?
Ridge