I don’t want to pick on the South, but one of the reasons that the Republicans are in so much trouble in the Interior West is that the GOP became a culturally southern party during the Bush years. This is one way of putting it:
As [conservative radio talk-show host, Jon] Caldara put it: “Colorado is, in fact, the test tube of how to export liberal expansion to the Western states.” A moderately conservative state has been turned Blue, Caldara says, because of “the absolute demolishing of what the Right stood for, how the Republican Party turned into something it was never meant to be and went away from Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan ideas.”
When Jon Caldara says ‘Goldwater-Reagan ideas’ he means ‘libertarian’ ideas. Democrats killed themselves out West by doing things like creating a federal 55-mile per hour speed limit. The GOP gave the advantage back by obsessing over people’s sexual preferences and looting the treasury. By no means do the Democrats have any kind of dominance in the region. In fact, they are still struggling to compete in Wyoming and Idaho, and have no strength in Utah. But the Democrats have a real chance to turn New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado blue in the presidential race (provided they do not nominate Clinton).
The Republicans have one hope – at least, for a four-year reprieve: Hillary Clinton. While the Democrats as a party are building strength out West, polls consistently show that Clinton has little appeal to Independents and Republicans in the region.
Survey USA did a 50-state, 30,000-person poll earlier this month, looking at the electoral map for hypothetical McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama races. It showed that New Mexico is likely to tilt Democratic no matter what this fall – and Barack Obama could pick up Colorado and Nevada rather handily (by 9 and 5 points, respectively). But Hillary would lose Colorado by 6 points and Nevada by 8 points.
To give you an idea of the significance for the Electoral College, if a Democrat can win the Kerry states plus Iowa, then New Mexico and Colorado would push them over the top (273-265). That’s a win without Ohio or Florida. Even if the Dems were to lose Iowa, the combination of New Mexico and Virginia would give them a 270-268 victory. In other words, any strength whatsoever in the Interior West will likely prove decisive for the Democrats, as long as they can hold on to the Gore-Kerry bloc of blue states.
Given this reality, it’s surprising that John McCain hasn’t tried to paint himself as the second coming of Barry Goldwater. But, unfortunately for him, the GOP is so Southern in culture that he couldn’t run away from those values and secure the nomination. Even now that he has the nomination in hand, he doesn’t have enough institutional support to get away with a sharp move away from the Culture Wars. He will talk about environmentalism and putting an end to the looting, and closing Guantanamo, but not enough about getting the government out of our panty drawers.
There is a real chance that the Democrats can pick up strength in the Interior West in the upcoming election. The Udall cousins are favored to win senate seats in New Mexico and Colorado. Gary Trauner is running strong for Wyoming’s at-large congressional seat. Larry LaRocco is running a credible campaign for Larry Craig’s senate seat in Idaho. And the Dems are competing strongly for two Nevada congressional seats and two Arizona congressional seats. All of these races will benefit from Obama on the top of the ticket (if current polls are to be believed).
I’d add to this that the Dems have a real chance to pick up senate seats in Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Of these states, only Oklahoma appears to be Clinton country. If the Dems win several of these races and also win senate seats in Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine, it will really solidify the Republican Party as a strictly southern party. Even worse for the GOP, Virginia now appears to be a blue state, and North Carolina is moving that way.
At the same time, an Obama nomination looks likely to weaken the Democrats in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Fortunately, the Dems do not need to win those states to win the election. But, those states appear to be southern enough in culture that they may become redder as the rest of the country moves in a blue direction.
What will be more interesting (if the realignment happens) is how the GOP will go about rebuilding itself in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and elsewhere outside of the South. Will we see a return to Rockefeller/Eisenhower Republicanism? I sure hope so.
