2008 Senate Outlook

I really want to get to 60 Democratic senate seats. It isn’t really so much about blocking filibusters, although that is a very important consideration. I want to get to 60 because I want the strongest possible repudiation of the Bush administration. The fact that they were not impeached and that they probably will not face criminal prosecution makes it all the more important that the people to the condemning. We can’t vote against Bush and Cheney because they are not on the ballot, but we can throw out everyone that enabled them.

This isn’t a partisan thing. As an American, I have a strong interest in the Republican Party functioning as a sane alternative to the party I prefer. The best way for the Republican Party to regain its footing and remake itself as something worthy of support is for them to have their house cleaned out for them by an enraged electorate.

George W. Bush, his policies, his ideology, and his style of politics, should go down in history with Herbert Hoover. He should stand as an example of how to destroy a political party for several generations. The whole world should see that we have learned from out mistakes and that our system of government is ultimately self-correcting.

Right now I feel very confident that the Democrats will pick up the senate seats in Virginia (Mark Warner), New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), New Mexico (Tom Udall), and Colorado (Mark Udall). For our purposes here, let’s assume that Joe Lieberman will be stripped of his seniority for attending the Republican National Convention and will decide to caucus with the Republicans. That means that we start with 50 seats. I think we are assured of getting to at least 54 seats.

I think Al Franken will ultimately prevail in Minnesota, and that gets us to fifty-five. Most people think the next two most vulnerable seats are Maine (Tom Allen) and Oregon (Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick). The problem is that Gordon Smith and Susan Collins are still fairly popular politicians. Smith is definitely vulnerable, but I haven’t seen much to show that Collins is in trouble. We may discover that the Democrats’ chances are stronger is other races.

There are open seats in Idaho and Nebraska. Larry LaRocco has been running a rigorous campaign in Idaho for a long time. I don’t think Obama can win there, but he might do well enough to help put LaRocco over the top.

Nebraska has a primary between DINO Tony Raimondo and Netroots hero Scott Kleeb. The Republicans have a strong candidate in former governor Mike Johanns, but Nebraska has a strange tendency to elect Democratic senators. One thing to keep an eye out for is whether Chuck Hagel openly aligns himself with Barack Obama. If he does, Nebraska could become a lot friendlier to the Democrats in the fall.

Oklahoma has a fascinating race between the plainly crazy Jim Inhofe and the dynamic state Senator Andrew Rice. Rice is a former divinity student who lost his brother in the World Trade Center attacks. He’s down rural development projects in Sri Lanka and Thailand and worked to combat religious extremism.

Shortly after 9/11, Rice worked at the Texas Faith Network (TFN) in Austin, Texas, where he organized Texas religious leaders to advocate for moderate and progressive public policy ideas. He also organized education programs about religious intolerance at places of worship all over Texas. He returned to Oklahoma in 2003 to establish the Progressive Alliance Foundation, which advocates fairness and equity in public policies.

And if that isn’t enough of a contrast to Crazy Jom Inhofe, just consider the contrast in energy.

In 2005, Rice launched a bid for State Senate District 46, a diverse inner-city district that includes small business owners, ethnic neighborhoods and Oklahoma City University. He defeated two Democratic opponents in the primary and won the general election with 70 percent of the vote after personally walking the entire district and meeting or contacting every voter.

Sen. Rice isn’t going to get any help from the top of the ballot and running as a progressive from Oklahoma City is a challenge in a statewide race. But Sooners are embarrassed by Inhofe. He’s become a national joke. I believe this is a race to watch.

Likewise, down in Texas the Democratic Party is plainly enjoying a huge resurgence. State Senator Rick Noriega is a Lieutenant Colonel in the Texas National Guard, a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, and served as the “the Laredo Border Sector Commander in Operation Jump Start during the summer of 2006.” Meanwhile, box turtle John Cornyn is one of the most unpopular members of the U.S. Senate. Noriega will enjoy a boost if Bill Richardson is tapped as Obama’s running mate, but he can win this race all by himself. The bigger question is whether Obama can win Texas.

Down in Mississippi, the race is between Trent Lott’s replacement Sen. Roger Wicker, and former governor Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove will probably vote against the Democratic caucus more than he votes with it, but he has a solid chance of winning this race. In fact, Obama has a chance of winning Mississippi if he can convince enough white voters to give him a chance.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the Democratic candidates in Georgia’s primary and it has been frustrating. Saxby Chambliss won this seat by questioning Max Cleland’s patriotism, and I want him gone in the worst way. But none of the candidates looked like they could raise any money, and half of them were terrible on policy. Fortunately, the DSCC finally found Jim Martin, who looks like he can make it a race. Martin is a Vietnam veteran and he ran for a statewide office in 2006 so he has some name recognition. Provided Martin can win a crowded primary, he could give Chambliss a run for his money.

It doesn’t appear that the Democrats can muster a serious challenge to Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. I’d like to know more about Michael Cone before I write this race off completely.

In Tennessee, the Democrats are bringing another Vietnam veteran into the mix. Bob Tuke is a Marine and former Chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party. I don’t see Lamar Alexander as particularly vulnerable, but he hasn’t exactly lit the Senate on fire in his first term either. This could be a competitive race.

Kentucky is a frustrating case. Bruce Lunsford is about the shittiest candidate the DSCC could have chosen for this race. Not only is he a proven loser, but he doesn’t know which party he belongs to. Progressives absolutely loathe Lunsford. On the other hand, he has the money and name recognition to make a serious run at an increasingly unpopular Mitch McConnell. If you live in Kentucky, vote for Greg Fischer. At least if Fischer beats McConnell we can feel like we won something. And, frankly, if you live in the Bluegrass State and you are going to be represented by an asshole Republican, you might as well be represented by Minority Leader McConnell. At least he will bring home the bacon.

Skipping over to Alaska, a Rasmussen poll that came out yesterday shows Ted ‘Hulk Tie’ Stevens in a dead heat (46%-45%) with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

There are twenty-three Republican-held senate seats up for grabs in November and only four of them look completely beyond reach. I can’t see any way the Democrats can win either of the Wyoming seats (Enzi and Barrasso), the Cochran-held seat in Mississippi, or Jeff Session’s seat in Alabama. South Carolina looks pretty grim, too.

Here’s my list of pick-ups, in order of likelihood.