Polls from Zogby and Temple University continue the trend of predicting a narrow Clinton victory in Pennsylvania. I just want to note that Zogby has really jettisoned his credibility by teaming up with Newsmax…..moving on…
Zogby finds:
Clinton wins 47% support to Obama’s 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, the survey shows. Another 2% are still holding out for someone else, while 8% said they are yet undecided.
Clinton enjoys strength in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, and central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, both regions of which are heavily populated by conservative Democrats. Obama enjoys an edge in the eastern part of the state, including Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Temple U. gets to the heart of it.
As the Poll shows, supporters of the two candidates also may be motivated to vote by quite different considerations: Clinton supporters are more likely to have a history of voting, while Obama supporters are more engaged in this particular election. The difference is due partly to the age difference between the two groups—the average Obama supporter is seven years younger than the average Clinton supporter—and partly to the success of the Obama campaign in attracting the support of people with little political experience. “Habit and enthusiasm are both very important ingredients in getting people to the polls, and these camps have the two in different measures,” according to Hagen. “It will be fascinating to see how the differences between these coalitions and between these campaign organizations interact to determine the primary’s result.”
Habit versus enthusiasm. Which will win in the end?
Zogby’s hurting this year, although he did wind up being right on the outcome in Missouri while SUSA got it wrong.
I assume Zogby means the Harrisburg area rather than Harrisburg proper. I have no doubt Obama will win the city and probably lose the surrounding area. The demographics of the city will swamp Clinton. Pittsburgh’s not so clear, but I suspect the same happens.
If Obama’s got Clinton pinned at about 47%, that’s a good sign, given the incumbent effect. But Obama also seems to be pinned down at about 41-43%, which worries me. We’ll have a better idea this time next week.
I wish I had a feel for the west, because he is going to win big in the east, but I can’t tell if he is going to win big enough.
You know, I haven’t run across any dKos diaries from Pittsburgh people. Now that I think about it.
One way that I knew what was happening in pre-primary Missouri was that I had gotten to know a bunch of Kansas City kossaks on-line and they had a good feel for their metro area. So we could trade views. Because otherwise KC might as well be in another state. So I know how you feel about Pittsburgh.
yeah, I don’t know any Pittsburgh bloggers either.
I’ve got a feel for the Harrisburg area because of friends of mine lending me a clue on the region — liberalish core, conservative surroundings — but haven’t the slightest idea of what to expect in the western areas. I’m inclined to think it will go strong for Clinton outside of the core of Pittsburgh, because the areas of Ohio it bordered went so strongly for her.
The question, as always, is how big those rural areas are in a Democratic race. The areas she plays well in are primarily red in these kinds of states, while Obama stomps her in the cities.
I thought about your point in re: “walking around money,” and it seems to me now that Obama’s move potentially plays very well with the ‘burbs who might have a low opinion of the machine government in the city. Lose a little, maybe gain a bit more, so perhaps it works out to a net positive. How’s it playing in the local press outlets that would have the attention of the folks in the counties?
he’s getting good local coverage over it.
Zogby mirrors the other polls that were published in the last few days a 4-5 point diff.
CNN Poll of polls as an axample.
Zogby had credibility? I don’t think so.
Well, to be fair, in the past he’s been surprisingly good compared with others, but it occurs to me that his polling has really been good in general elections. I’m not sure what the past looks like for him in primaries.
no, he really doesn’t, which is why he has apparently been forced to team up with Newsmax. I think he’s a Democratic superdelegate from DC. So, odd coupling.
Actually, I think it’s his brother who’s a superdelegate. James Zogby, if I’m not mistaken. Still, odd coupling, although John Zogby never struck me as terribly ideological. I think it probably reflects the msm not wanting his polls anymore.
To Zogby: The Harrisburg area is heavily populated by Republicans, not by any kind of Democrats.
As far as the Harrisburg suburbs, our township Democratic club had a petition-signing party; the Obama petitions got substantially more signatures than Clinton’s, even though none of the delegates for Obama was from our area, even from our county.
What do y’all think about Obama’s religion/guns/etc comment and the ramifications for Penn?