As someone that lives in Southeast Pennsylvania it is near impossible for me to tell how the primary is going to play out next Tuesday. A look at the internals of the new Public Policy Polling (.pdf) poll released today will help to explain why.
Overall- Clinton 42%, Obama 45%
Region
Northeast PA- Clinton 57%, Obama 28%
Southeast PA- Clinton 33%, Obama 53%
South Central PA- Clinton 41%, Obama 46%
West Central PA- Clinton 48%, Obama 39%
Southwest PA Clinton 52%, Obama 37%
Where I live, Obama is up by twenty points in this poll, while up by Scranton/Wilkes-Barre he is down by twenty-nine points. As should be obvious, the Southeast and the Northeast have vastly different demographics and different cultures, as do the eastern and western parts of the state. So, while in these parts it is plain to see that Obama has all the momentum and people who do support Clinton are often embarrassed to admit it, there are other parts of the state where the reverse is true.
With a poll this close but regions at such odds, turnout is the key. If the Southeast turns out at higher rates than the Northeast and Southwest, then Obama can take the state. Also, while it’s nice to see a poll that shows Obama ahead, this poll remains a relative outlier. So…keep plugging away.
