(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)
A couple weeks back, I made a preliminary estimate of the results of the Pennsylvania primary. Now that we have arrived at the weekend before the Tuesday election, I’d like to revisit my initial prediction and adjust it, taking into account some of the feedback I received on the entry, as well as some observations as to what has happened since then. I still believe Hillary Clinton is on track to win the primary here, but the margin of victory will be decreased from my initial estimate. Instead, she’ll only pick up 12 pledged delegates (as opposed to 18), and I do think that her margin of victory will fall into the single digits.
Please see below the fold for the particular congressional districts that I made adjustments to…
Pennsylvania (April 22nd, 158 pledged delegates)
A majority of the initial delegate predictions I made aren’t going to change. The list below are the districts I don’t feel will have any significant changes in the popular vote such that it would result in a realignment of the delegate allocation.
CD-01 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-05 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-06 (6 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 3
CD-07 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-08 (7 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 3
CD-09 (3 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 1
CD-12 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 1
CD-13 (7 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 3
CD-14 (7 delegates): Hillary Clinton 4, Barack Obama 3
CD-15 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-16 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-17 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-19 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
The districts below, I feel, will change from my initial predictions.
PA CD-02: 9 delegates
After getting a firsthand look at the ground game today – I canvassed a neighborhood several blocks north of University City this morning – I can say with fair confidence that Obama should easily win this district by a margin of 7-2 (my initial prediction was 6-3). Given that African-Americans are voting as a near-monolithic block for Obama, combined with the fact that most whites in the district are the kind of upper-class, educated liberals that have also gone in strong numbers for him, there should be no problem breaking the 72.22% barrier needed for a 7-2 split. I don’t think Obama is strong enough to garner 83.33% of the vote, which would result in an 8-1 split, but he should net out an extra delegate from my initial projections easily.
Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-03: 5 delegates
This is noted unfriendly ground for Obama; in the bordering Ohio counties, he usually received support in the low 30s. While I previously had predicted the district would go in favor to Clinton by a 4-1 margin, I think that Obama’s good ground game (some firsthand diaries from Erie can be found from Kossack hiraga), combined with his town hall in the city yesterday, will allow him to clear the 30% hurdle.
Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-04: 5 delegates
I had also predicted this at a 4-1 split for Clinton. However, given that Obama should perform relatively well in the Pittsburgh suburbs, he should be able to secure at least 30% of the vote. The Clintons have campaigned in parts of this district (Bill Clinton in Beaver Falls and New Castle; Hillary Clinton in Aliquippa), but I don’t think the advantages she will get from the border regions of the district will overcome the votes coming from more of in-state areas.
Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-10: 4 delegates
The northeast part of the state is going to be a Clinton stronghold. In my initial estimates, I thought Obama would be able to hold Clinton under 62.5% based on the results in the neighboring New York counties, along with Sen. Bob Casey’s endorsement. However, I think I overestimated the importance of a Casey endorsement, and even though it is his home base, the demographics are such that Clinton should perform very well in this part of the state.
Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-11: 5 delegates
Similarly, given the Rodham family’s deep roots to the Scranton area, I don’t think the value of Casey’s endorsement will prevent this district from strongly voting for Clinton. Due to that, I am switching my allocation from 3-2 to 4-1. If Obama is able to hold her below 70% here, it could be a bellwether for a good night come Tuesday.
Allocation of CD-11 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-18: 5 delegates
In my initial predictions, this was one of the districts I had also listed as a 4-1 sweep for Clinton. However, a great deal of the district consists of the Pittsburgh suburbs, meaning that Obama should clear the 30% hurdle for a 3-2 split with relative ease.
Allocation of CD-18 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
At-Large Delegates (35 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (20 delegates)
In my previous diary, I estimated that Clinton would win by a 12 percentage-point margin, 56%-44%. However, polling in Pennsylvania has shown Clinton’s double-digit leads shrinking into the single digits. While it’s possible she will still win by more than 10 percent – and I think SurveyUSA’s last poll before the primary (should they put one out) will be worth surveying, given that they nailed Ohio dead on – I think that there’s been a good deal of back-and-forth that has probably hurt Clinton more than Obama. I don’t think Obama can win the state – conservative talk show host Michael Smerconish’s prediction of a 2-point Obama win is largely a pipe dream – but if he can hold the margin in single digits, it becomes hard for Clinton to spin it as a convincing victory.
Therefore, I do think Clinton will win by 8 percent, 54%-46%. This changes only the at-large delegate allocation, where it is now 19-16 in favor of Clinton, instead of 20-15. The pledged PLEO count remains at 11-9 in favor of Clinton.
Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 19 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 16 pledged delegatesAllocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 9 pledged delegates
Conclusion
As of now, I think that Hillary Clinton will garner 85 pledged delegates to Barack Obama’s 73. The best-case and worst-case scenarios that I laid out previously haven’t changed at all. While Clinton will be able to spin her Pennsylvania results as some sort of validation for continuing on, the margin of victory won’t be large enough to change the impending media narrative – namely, that her candidacy rests on convincing superdelegates that Obama is unelectable…and since she said in Wednesday’s ‘debate’ that he could beat John McCain, one has to wonder what other arguments could possibly be used.
