If you look at a map of the Democratic voter registration surge (by zip code) in the five county Philadelphia region, an important pattern emerges. It will help if you know the region and the city. In Philly, registration is through the roof in University City and the rest of West Philly. This is Obama’s strongest area (District 2, Chaka Fattah) in the state. Registration is also extremely high in the North (the blackest area of Philly) and in the Center City, Society Hill, Queens Village area (District 2, Bob Brady) that is socially liberal and filled with urban professionals and artists (the Creative Class). By contrast, registration is low in the Northeast, Fishtown, and deep South Philly (white ethnics, most opposed to Obama).
The same pattern holds in Bucks County, where heavily black Morrisville saw a huge spike, in Montgomery County, where heavily black Norristown and Conshohocken saw a huge spike, in Delaware County, where heavily black Chester and Darby saw a huge spike, and Chester Country, where heavily black Coatsville and West Chester saw a huge spike. Overall, the heaviest registration has come from college towns/areas, black neighborhoods, and the Creative Class neighborhoods of Philadelphia.
This portends a very high differential turnout of Obama voters to Clinton voters in the five county area. It also portends an historically unprecedented differential turnout of the black/creative class vote over the white ethnic vote.
I’m not a polling expert, but I do know that pollsters are not free just to pull turnout models out of thin air. If the percentage of the Democratic vote that was black in 2004-2006 was say 17%, the pollsters are not going to postulate that it will be 25% this year. Likewise, if the Philly region represented say 33% of the statewide vote in recent election, then the pollsters will not stray too far from that precedent.
If you are polling the whole state using just 700-1000 voters, you have to get the regional turnout numbers right, you have to get the differential race, age, and gender numbers right. If you don’t, your poll is going to be off.
On the eve of the South Carolina primary the polls predicted the following result:
Obama: 43.1%
Clinton: 28.5%
Edwards: 17.0%
The actual result?
Obama: 55%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 18.0%
Two out of three ain’t bad. They nailed the vote for Clinton and Edwards, but they dramatically underestimated Obama’s vote. Looking at the voter registration numbers in the Philly area, I think there is a real chance that the pollsters are about to be proven wrong about this race.
Here is one sign that backs up my suspicions.
A recent Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters, conducted by Franklin and Marshall College, found that 62 percent of Democrats who registered statewide within the last three months planned to vote for Obama.
They might be weighting their polls using anachronistic turnout models. If so, look for Obama to dramatically outperform the polls, just as he did in South Carolina.
How many new Dems were registered/flipped from the GOP/Indie pool total in Penn?
This will give you an idea.
So about 310,000 new Dems, taking new voters and those who switched, just since January. That could, indeed, prove pretty Earth-shattering.
10:08 PM
hope those double digits are off. Gawd, she can’t be allowed to win at 10%. End the misery. Enough already.
Those are all the lousy pollsters, though. SUSA and PPP are, I think, the only ones worth considering every time. I’m torn. Betting against SUSA is like playing Russian Roulette with only two empty chambers, but betting against PPP is like playing with only one.
oh guys – Drew J J and BooMan. Stop the drooling. No jinx. OK.
It’ll be spun as ‘since the last census, PA is now SC and we did not see it coming.’
and Geraldine and Bob’s talkingpoints.
and we were broke. he outspent us 8:1*
and it’s the full moon. Oops! they can’t use that….. defamation of character. On 2nd deep thought, yes, they will.
*Hill and Bill could’ve used some of that $109 million made over the last 7 years….(no wonder they wouldn’t release that info until the 11th hr). Betcha donations dried to a trickle since those tax returns went public.
This latest is somewhat of a justification for your earlier post and my comments as well. I am in no way or by any stretch of the imagination as well equipped to posit as learned a posting as you but if the atats are anywhere correct, then the next question has to be: What is the difference? And the probable answer must include”The Blogs”! What you and the vast sphere is offering is a viable, knowledgeable and instant response to the traditional media sources. Your continued offerings have become the main source for the growing dissatisfied citizenry that are, in no way, as ignorant as the MSM openly treats them.
If, by chance, the O man defeats Hillary in Pa., The rush to spin will be staggering. Might I point out that even if Hillary is able to garner a slight victory, Obama emerges as the true victor. And, the biggest victor of all will be the Sphere!
Interesting analysis, and one that certainly portends well for Obama. Nevertheless, I’m wary of getting too optimistic based on new registration numbers. At this point, it will be all about GOTV – and it will mean overrunning Clinton in Philadelphia and the suburbs.
Whether it’s enough, who knows. If Obama manages to pull out an upset, then we’ll know that the pollsters got it wrong.
Somebody get a bus then.
a lot is riding on PA.
not too happy to read at Huffpost: Undecided super-delegates don’t feel bound by primaries
I’m all for abolishing super-delegates. They get to vote twice? How’s that?
those numbers, combined with obama’s ground game, certainly open the door to a victory there.
l’m not up on all the polling, but l do see that the latest mcclatchy/msnbc/pittsburg post-gazette poll seems to have it close to a dead heat with the moet:
with the seemingly lackluster ground game being mounted by the clinton campaign, probably due in no small part from apparent money woes, and the large differential in turn out at events, this may indeed have the potential to be a defining moment in the primary.
even us cynical ol bastads can hope.
Come Tuesday night, I may be sipping a tad of something chased by beer. And the beer won’t be Bud – that’s Cindy McCain’s product.
put it on my tab idredit.
l’ll skip the brown liquor in a dirty glass, but l’ll certainly join you in a toast…maybe an Avery Karma, or two.
btw: kudos on the “anti swift boat” catch…obama’s obviously looking ahead.
thanks for the kind words dada. As usual so good of you
I have to say, I just haven’t seen much of anything on the ground re: Hillary here. NO mailers, few signs here (more in West Chester, but not a lot by any stretch of the imagination), and yesterday, I saw a handful of college kids with “Honk for Hillary” signs in front of the County Courthouse and in front of a shopping center (in separate towns in Chester County). Drove past both groups on 2 separate occassions – only ever heard 1 honk total!
I was also in Wayne PA on Saturday…tons of Obama yard signs, and LOTS of honking for the Obama folks at the main intersection there. It’s only anecdotal, but we are actively looking for signs of Hillary support and just not seeing it.
I have no clue how this is going to turn out on Tuesday, but the Obama folks definitely have enthusiasm on their side.
interesting observations…there seems to be, at least imo, a definite, and growing, lack of enthusiasm for clinton everywhere but the web.
people are tiring of the quixotic pursuit that she’s indulging in.
even here, where our caucuses were over feb 5th, her long time defenders are questioning it and moving to obama…they’re more interested in arguing about who his veep pick’s going to be.
CG, I’ve been phone banking PA today and I’ve some telling me they were for Clinton but after the mud slinging they’ll now vote Obama. This from men. And from women, “Anybody but Hillary”
Confirms this great piece in The Sunday Times, UK a repost of selected morsels:
Hillary Clinton’s ‘Republican’ tactics backfire in battle for Pennsylvania
President Bush’s election guru Karl Rove tells our correspondent in Philadelphia that she has left it too late to assail Barack Obama
I saw Hillary’s name change: Karl R. Clinton.
Yesterday, sitting in a tiny grange hall room with another 150 delegates for 7 hrs while we worked thru our Party business I looked around. We had a young man 18, 2 ladies & 3 men in their 30’s and the rest of the room was over 40, mostly over 50.
ALL but 3 for Obama and whe at 1 they announced we had 54 resolutions to vote on by 4, the whole room stood up and chanted YES WE CAN!
Judged purely by age we should be HRC supporters, guess we’re not the only flaw in the pollmeisters’ gig.
That’s a great map. It’s hard to disagree with your conclusions. There were also large increases in surrounding small cities like Valley Forge, Pottstown, Quakertown, and Doylestown.
Does PA do Diebold? Just remembering New Hampshire…
I can only speak for my suburban precinct, but I get a paper receipt for my ballot when I vote; I think they use an optical scan now instead of a punch card.
FWIW, Clinton will be holding her closing rally Monday night on Penn’s campus (in the Palestra) along with Bill and Chelsea. I still find it hard to fathom why she decided to end her PA campaign in the district where she is going to get absolutely rocked.
I’ve been trying to wrap my head around it. Is she hoping to preserve that 2-7 walloping?
And why put Hill, Bill, and Chelsea all in West Philly? Why not spread it around?
Because she is clueless or seems that way lately. The sense of denial is overwhelming.
All through her campaign, HRC has been making dumb plays thus giving the lie to the value of her experience and proving that her so called organizational skills are a myth.
She reminds me, now, of some punch drunk fighter who doesn’t know the way to his own corner. Or does she think that she and her family can make some inroads into Obama’s strength. Utter folly.
Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad.
In times of great peril, embittered people often cling to their family, faith, and guns…
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRILLIANT! ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT!
There were few Clinton strongholds around the state where registration boomed in the way that Obama strongholds saw huge increases. And out west, as in Westmoreland county, there were areas where registration remained nearly flat. That suggests that across the state the newly registered are heavily Obama supporters.
Second, however, the F&M poll figure of 62%, though intriguing, is based on precious few respondents (about 15 in total). Also, fwiw, the newly registered are UNDER represented in the F&M poll (which sampled only 4%, though they constitute about 7% of the Dem electorate).