I think it’s safe to say that the polls mean very little. Turnout looks very high in Obama’s main areas.
In Philadelphia, turnout is reportedly “very heavy,” said Abe Amoros, the executive director of the state Democratic Party. In the counties surrounding Philadelphia, including Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery and Chester, most polling stations have reported long lines.
The Democratic primary election in 2004 saw a 26 percent turnout, but this year promises to be much higher, Mr. Amoros said.
Turnout in Philly and the Burbs will determine the outcome. In 2004, Kerry beat Bush in Philadelphia Co. 542,000-130,000, for a 412,000 margin. In the 2002 gubernatorial primary, Rendell beat Casey 224,000-61,000, for a 163,000 margin. Kerry and Rendell each got about 80% of the vote, but with higher turnout Kerry netted an extra 250,000 votes.
The higher the turnout overall the better for Obama, because his areas are the most populated areas.
