OK dust ourselves off, the grieving is over. Maybe a tad, but before we move on to the prize it may bring closure to read wtf happened in PA.
Here’s a clear eyed view on the PA disappointing results brought to us by MyDD.(feel free to disagree).
This post-PA analysis is by Dan Wolford, an Obama delegate, followed with a critique from Jerome Armstrong. (Yes, the Jerome Armstrong who at times just don’t get it – thinks Obama supporters are stuck in a “Pre-Wright bubble” and that Nancy Pelosi should not chair the Denver Convention because she has said the ‘dream ticket’ is a bad idea).
Don’t run away, keep reading. I found this interesting.
WTF happened? My question too. Yeah I know, BooMan’s analysis dried our tears – but with some of us, including moi, they’re still flowing.
From: Dan Wofford
Sent: Wed Apr 23 14:18
Subject: RE: Wa d f happened?
John and interested friends:
You ask “what went wrong” — I assume that’s what you meant by “Wa d f happened?” Here’s my hangover-colored answer:
He visited San Fransisco two weeks ago. That’s what happened.
- Message to all Democratic Candidates: Never to go San Fransicso, unless incognito;
- Message to Barack: Don’t think out loud at fundraisers in San Fransisco if you’re stupid enough to go there.
- Message # 3: If someone in SF asks you about those “strange rural people in PA”…don’t indulge their liberal, latte drinking bull shit…Just tell them if they want to understand rural and ethnic PA that they should get in the Prius’s and drive down to Bakersfield or any of the other mid state towns in California where there are people who actually lead ordinary lives and care about God and own guns….That’s what Barack should have done and then not apologized for making remarks that while poorly worded were fundamentally accurate on one level (while not others…since when times are bad, people actually start caring about the ‘big” issues like jobs and health care….that’s why HW could win the senate seat in 1991…)
To answer your question more specifically:
- Bittergate hurt a lot — bc is slowed down and then with the poor debate performance stopped what was truly real closing momentum. No question had he not gone to SF or said those comments, we lose by 3-4 pts.
- Debate hurt him for same reason as #1, and bc it cost us a couple days and didn’t help with undecideds. Thank god we had a brillant state wide tour that was very effective or this could have been a real blow-out…as it is she just got 8 more delegates than we did out of PA.
- Field Operation didn’t put all the possible assets on the table: As much as admire the campaign’s field leadership (and I mean that, some very capable and good folks who have a fantastic organizational model). I do believe they were overconfident about their ability in Philly to get the vote out without paying street money or sucking up to the ward leaders so that party regulars along with BO volunteers would get the job done…..too reliant on the massive number of “volunteers” in the city — but many not true locals or party stalwarts.
- I would have paid “street” money… See (Legendary Philly Inquirer columnist) Tom Ferrick’s op-ed in yesterday’s NY Times….paying volunteers to work a whole day in the city is a long held tradition and frankly is a sure way to see that you get every possible vote. Danger of course is that Ward leaders skim some of the money, which some do or that they give it out and then help the other candidate. Well that’s the risk you take. I felt it was bullshit for the Obama campaign to say they weren’t going to play that “old”
[.]5. 6. 7.
- Working class PA folks, esp those over 45, don’t trust Obama…this is a problem and other than getting them to meet Obama retail style…don’t know how we solve it, unless we can get him to do a quick tour of duty in Iraq…
- Losing the Catholic and Jewish vote: Way to cautious in outreach to Jewish community…did not put enough assets out on the table…not enough Jewish folks involved….self perpetuating problem…Think the same is true for Catholics…..A friend close to the campaign said she was surprised to see how few Catholics and Jews there were
Jerome Armstrong’s critique:
1-2, yes, like Obama’s NAFTA crapta in Ohio, he had last-weekish misteps that set him up for failure– or more importantly, an event for the pundits to point toward as the reason for his failure to close a 55-45 gap.
But, I am not sold that ‘bitter & cling’ took away a closer PA election from Obama. It’s not like he was 3-4 points down before it happened, and none of the state polls showed a movement away from him after ‘bitter & cling’, and the same for the debate. Perhaps, combined, they had an effect. But it seems just as possible, given points 3-9, that Obama would have lost by the same margin, and we’d see the pundits blaming the terrible bowling score instead. Dan might be right, but the polling…
9. This is the real crux of the matter.
This bitterness, amplified on the internet by some of his supporters, especially in their obsessive hatred tone toward anything Clinton, has replaced the hopefulness that pervaded his earlier supporter message.
I’m not saying that Obama has changed his message, or suggesting this is a portrayal of all Obama supporters, but pointing toward a vocal part of what has become his part of his most strident base (on this note Keith Olbermann might reflect on his responsibility in having fostered a part of this attitude).
I’m also not saying that there is nothing in the country that needs changing, there is, but Presidential elections are won by the candidate and movement message which is the most hopeful about the country.doesn’t back him up. Clinton’s uptick was more or less matched by Obama’s uptick in the closing polls, the difference, like Ohio, being that the polls (some of them including the average) didn’t show Clinton pulling away at the very end. But give Zogby credit, as he caught the Sunday-Monday movement to Clinton and nailed the final margin.
I’ve singled out Jerome Armstrong’s response to item 9. Show hands, do you see yourself somewhere in there? Why blame Olbermann? Just too asshat for me is this:
” There does seem to have been a shift of a part of Obama’s base, from Church-attending voters, toward secular warrior voters. When Edwards was in the race, many of them backed him instead of Obama, and it allowed a much fresher and younger voice of the Obama supporter to emerge.
Now, the ‘pissed off and not gonna hide it’ Democrats have become a vocal part of Obama’s base, beyond the youth and African-American supporters.
Its also recognizable in the polling done asking if people feel good about America as a whole, or people who think that America is failing as a whole, the former supporting Clinton and the latter Obama.
What a piece of crap?
Armstrong does not understand Barack Obama’s message, the campaign’s well thought out strategy or Obama’s supporters who are invested in taking back the party apparatus from the DLC – the Harold Ickes, Terry McAuliffe and Clinton icky types.
Many like Armstrong have missed the precise deployment by the Obama campaign. Win or lose, the Obama movement will mature; even as the Clintons try to kill it in the bathtub.
Have no fear, unlike us, Obama has no time to grieve. He has been very busy this week. In fact, I received an email recruiting volunteers for Kentucky. The Obama movement is masterful.
It is striking how well planned each roll out is executed – from timely endorsements to what happens after each state’s primary vote – whether it’s a win or a perceived loss. Take this week after the PA disappointment, a Clinton 9-point edge. Not double digits as the media would have us believe.
Howard Dean, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi gotta love these:
- Obama’s campaign announced a joint fundraising deal with the DNC. Hillary is on the outside looking in.
- Big Hillary Fundraiser defects to Obama
- Obama rolls out his 50 state strategy; confident he’ll prevail to the nomination he sets out for victory in November. He ignores the Clintons white noise.
Here’s Todd Beeton -MyDD with details on the 50 state roll out.
Barack Obama’s 50-State Strategy
Senator Barack Obama’s campaign today announced the kickoff of Vote for Change, an unprecedented 50-state voter registration and mobilization drive. The campaign will work with grassroots volunteers and partner with local organizations to register new voters and boost engagement in our Democratic process. The program will launch on May 10 with dozens of events around the country.
“If we’re going to push back on the special interests and finally solve the challenges we face, we’re going to need everyone to get involved,” said Senator Obama. “Over the next six months, Vote for Change is going to bring new participants into the process, adding scores of new voices to this critical dialogue about our future.
I started my career as a community organizer, and I worked to register voters in communities where hope was all but lost. I’ve seen what can happen when Americans re-engage and take ownership in the process.”
“We’ve already seen amazing new enthusiasm and involvement over the course of this campaign, and now we’re taking that excitement to the next level in all 50 states,” said deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand. “We’ve seen too many elections where turnout was less than 50 percent. At this critical time in our history, we know we can do better–this year and beyond.
Obama has adopted Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy into his campaign. In so doing, coupled with the DNC fundraising deal, Obama sends a clear message to all super-delegates and other politicians:
” hey look, I maybe a young upstart but I’ve out-campaigned the Clintons’ machine and here’s what the Obama movement can do for you. “
“I’m a team player. The party’s interest, your interest is paramount. “
Clinton, the inevitable one, can’t match the Obama organization. More over, we have seen nothing else but her self interest and selfishness.
Listen up super-Ds; the Clintons would rather destroy the party if they can’t have the nomination for a third term.
Now take a hammer and some nails. Go here, finish the job. Nail it shut.