(Cross-posted from Daily Kos)
Almost a month ago, I did a preliminary analysis of how the Indiana election would break down. It was something of a shot at the dark at the time, given the relative lack of polling that had occurred in the state at the time. Based on some of the feedback in the diary, along with my own observations (from Pennsylvania, albeit) of how the race has shaped up in the past few weeks, I still think that Hillary Clinton is going to win the state despite the disproportionate amount of time Barack Obama has focused on the state (when compared to North Carolina, the other state voting on Tuesday). That being said, even though I think the popular vote margin I predicted last time (an 8% victory for Clinton) will only shrink slightly, she is likely to net out only 4 delegates (down from my initial prediction of 6) over Obama as a result of Tuesday’s primary.
Follow me below the fold for my updated analysis on the district breakdown…
Indiana (May 6th primary, 72 pledged delegates)
The districts listed below don’t have any changes from my initial predictions for the delegate allocation. I won’t venture to make any popular vote predictions, but I would say that Clinton is probably favored to garner a majority of the vote in CD-03, CD-04, and CD-05 (all of which have 4 pledged delegates), while Obama will take a majority of the votes in CD-01.
CD-01 (6 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 3
CD-03 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-04 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-05 (4 delegates): Hillary Clinton 2, Barack Obama 2
CD-06 (5 delegates): Hillary Clinton 3, Barack Obama 2
CD-07 (6 delegates): Barack Obama 4, Hillary Clinton 2
For the following districts, I have changed my initial estimates.
IN-02: 6 delegates
While I had initially pegged this district to split for Clinton in a 4-2 fashion, I think Obama will be able to overcome the 41.5% needed to earn a delegate split in the district. He has been to the district quite a few times over the course of the campaign, and in the most recent SurveyUSA poll, it shows Obama fighting Clinton to a draw in northern Indiana. While Clinton will probably earn a popular vote majority, I don’t think it will be by an overwhelming margin so as to get her the extra delegate.
Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
IN-08: 6 delegates
While I had initially forecast a split in this region, I now believe Clinton will win this district by a wide enough margin to get 4 of the 6 delegates in the district. Terre Haute is Sen. Evan Bayh’s base, and with the highest-ranking Democrat in the state pulling out all the stops for Clinton, one has to believe that she will perform well in this district. While Obama has visited Terre Haute and, more recently, Evansville, I don’t think it can catapult him over 41.5%.
Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
IN-09: 6 delegates
I had initially forecast this district to go 4-2 in favor of Clinton, in large part due to the demographics (Clinton will probably win the rural counties in dominating fashion), but I think Obama will likely be able to earn a delegate split in this district. That’s due in part to the endorsements of both the incumbent representative, Baron Hill, along with his widely-respected Democratic predecessor, Lee Hamilton. The college town of Bloomington, combined with the suburbs of Louisville and the exurbs of Cincinnati in the northeastern portion of the district, will likely help out Obama here. That being said, a 4-2 split in favor of Clinton cannot be ruled out completely – but I don’t think she’ll pull it off.
Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
At-Large Delegates (16 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (9 delegates)
Previously, I had estimated that Clinton would defeat Obama by 8%. The latest polling averages show Clinton up by 5.5%, in no part helped by Zogby’s daily tracking poll that shows Obama with a statistically insignificant lead over Clinton. I have to believe that the margin of victory will be slightly wider than the polling average, but it’ll likely be less than the 8% I had initially forecast. I predict Clinton will win the popular vote with a margin of 6.4% (53.2%-46.8%). This barely leaves my initial estimates of the at-large and pledged PLEO delegate allocation the same. If the margin shrinks a bit more (down to 6.2%), then Clinton and Obama would split the at-large delegates evenly, with 8 apiece.
Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 9 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegatesAllocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 5 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Conclusion
I forecast Hillary Clinton to win 38 pledged delegates from Indiana, while Barack Obama will pick up 34. This delegate pickup will be overshadowed by Obama picking up more delegates in North Carolina (for which I will do my final handicapping tomorrow). The best-case and worst-case scenarios from my previous analysis still stand. An Obama victory (which is unlikely as of now, IMO) will likely result in netting out 4 delegates, while his worst-case scenario – losing the state around 10 points – could lead to a net loss of as many as 12 delegates but would likely end up as a net loss of 8 (by a 40-32) margin.
Although the media will hype up any Clinton victory in Indiana, the fact that the delegate pickup will barely register means that the math won’t change. And with only 217 pledged delegates remaining after Tuesday’s vote, there will be more uncommitted superdelegates outstanding – which means that the focus is going to shift away from the campaign-trail politicking (which will go on, undoubtedly) and more towards convincing them who to vote for.
